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Monday: No
Tuesday: No
Wednesday: I am monitoring an incoming cold front. Lightning is possible.
Thursday: No
Friday: No
Saturday: Monitor updates. Some storms are possible. Timing will need to be worked out.
Sunday: Monitor updates. Some storms are possible.
Monday: Not at this time
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- Damp/wet ground conditions.
- River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
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Sunday through Tuesday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Late Tuesday night lightning is possible.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Unlikely. Monitor updates concerning some storms late Tuesday night over our northern counties.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.
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Wednesday through Saturday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. I am monitoring Wednesday. Another system next Saturday or Sunday. It may hold off until Sunday. Monitor updates.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms are possible by Wednesday. Right now, it appears the severe weather risk is low.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
County Maps: Click Here
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May 13, 2019
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool for mid-May
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
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Monday night Forecast: A few clouds. Patchy dense fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 48° NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility where fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:55 PM
Moonrise: 2:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:57 AM
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May 14, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny. A bit warmer.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 Very High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. I will be monitoring a line of thunderstorms approaching our region from the northwest. It would be late at night if it moves into the area. Most likely this would be across the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. How far south and east it travels from there will need to be monitored.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 52° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: A chance for numerous showers and thunderstorms approaching from the St Louis area.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Late night wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:56 PM
Moonrise: 3:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:32 AM
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May 15, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 76° to 78° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming west at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. An evening shower or thunderstorm is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roads. Lightning. Confidence in Wednesday night’s forecast is rather low.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:57 PM
Moonrise: 4:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:05 AM
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Thursday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A slight chance of a shower. Warmer. High temperatures in the lower 80s. Low temperatures in the Lower 60s. South 5 to 10 mph wind.
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Friday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. Warmer. High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. Low temperatures in the middle 60s. Southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
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Saturday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. Warm. Increasing clouds Saturday night with a thunderstorm possible. Rain chances 0% Saturday. 30% Saturday night. High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. Low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. Southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
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Sunday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Sunday night. Rain chances 60% Sunday and 40% Sunday night. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures in the lower 60s. Southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
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Wind forecast
Click to enlarge
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
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This will be updated at 8 AM
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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Monday through next Sunday: Lightning is possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday and then again Saturday night and Sunday. The risk of severe weather Tuesday night and Wednesday is low.
A few strong storms are possible with the weekend system. Still a bit early for details. Monitor updates.
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Numerous value-added severe weather graphics.
Click to enlarge
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com
Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
- Another day with cooler than normal temperatures.
- A cold front arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms may accompany it.
- Much warmer Wednesday into Saturday. Lower to middle 80s are likely Thursday and especially Friday.
- I am tracking a stronger system for Saturday night into Sunday. Monitor updates.
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Current conditions.
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May temperature and precipitation outlook
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Precipitation
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Well, it was an odd weekend. Much below normal temperatures blanketed the region. Highs on Sunday remained in the 50s across much of the region.
Portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois had sunshine by Sunday afternoon and temperatures popped into the 60s.
Normal high temperatures are in the middle to upper 70s.
Temperatures for your Monday are going to remain in the 60s. Well below seasonal norms. There will be a mix of sun and clouds. At this time, it appears that rain chances on Monday will be less than ten percent.
Much warmer air is poised to push into the region by the middle and end of the week.
This is going to signal a change in the weather pattern.
We are going to go from below normal temperatures to above normal temperatures. As a matter of fact, the middle 80s are possible by Thursday and Friday.
A cold front will move into our area from the north on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. That front will then return north as a warm front.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop in Iowa, northern Missouri, and northern/central Illinois on Tuesday. This precipitation will push south and east on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
A band of thunderstorms is likely to push into our region. It will first arrive over the northern half of southeast Missouri and northern counties of southern Illinois. It will then continue to push south and east.
It is likely to be in a weakening stage as it moves south and east. It is possible that the system weakens to the point of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Typically, these systems leave an outflow boundary. The outflow boundary can be an ignition point for the new shower and thunderstorm activity.
That is what I will be monitor on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Dry weather is likely Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Much warmer temperatures, as well.
A strong storm system (that will have brought numerous severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes from Texas northward)will push into our region Saturday night and Sunday.
It is too early to know if the system will continue to produce severe weather in our region. This is also something that I will be monitoring.
Plan on some shower and thunderstorms by Saturday night and Sunday. Monitor updates.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Timestamps upper left.
I encourage you to monitor updates each day. There will likely be adjustments on rain probabilities and timing.
Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.
Timestamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it,
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This next model is the Canadian model.
Timestamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.
This is a longer animation. I just wanted to show you how active this model is. This model goes out to Sunday, May 19th.
Keep in mind, the further out in time you travel the lower confidence in the forecast.
Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.
These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos.
I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
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The Ohio Valley video
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Precipitation outlook
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Preliminary summer outlook
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.
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WeatherBrains Episode 693
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Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Office in Memphis, TN. He is a 31-year veteran of the NWS, and worked at offices in west Texas, north Texas, and Phoenix AZ before moving to Memphis. He received his Bachelors Degree in Meteorology from Florida State, and his Masters from the University of Oklahoma. He has focused on severe storms and storm spotter training throughout his career, and has helped develop spotter training materials that were and are used nationwide. Gary Woodall, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Tonight’s second guest WeatherBrain is a graduating senior from the University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology. She is Oklahoma Weather Labs Director of Operations and a Senior Representative to the OU School of Meteorology Student Affairs Committee. Also, she is Deputy Director of the New Student Mentoring Program and a member of the OU Nightly Weather Team. Leah Hill, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- What role does social media play in severe weather events?
- How should the NWS word severe weather warnings and statements?
- POD/FAR emphasis
- Issues with the general public not being able to find themselves on a map
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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