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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Any precipitation remaining will push off to the east. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly early)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Any strong storms should be coming to an end over our eastern and southeastern counties
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Friday – Mostly sunny. Cool. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. Perhaps a few storms over our northwest counties. Storms will be moving in along a cold front.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% after 4 pm.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered very late in the day
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? A few storms towards Randolph County, IL could be strong late in the day.
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A few showers or thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming southwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Small risk.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Saturday – Partly sunny. Cooler. Small shower chance before 7 am
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – A few clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-46 degree range
Winds: North and northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly sunny. A small chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee late in the afternoon
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-68 degree range.
Winds: East winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% in the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Lightning.
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-52 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roads
Monday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: East winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% (subject to adjustments)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- It has been a long week of weather for our region
- Chilly weekend
Spring is typically the time of year that we experience quite a bit of severe weather. And, certainly this past week has lived up to the bill. Numerous reports of severe weather over the past few days. Several tornadoes, numerous reports of large hail, and some wind damage have been in the headlines.
On Wednesday an outbreak of hail storms struck parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Hail up to the size of baseballs were reported in some of my forecast counties. Some locations had hail that last thirty minutes.
Very heavy rainfall has also been noted over the region. Anywhere from 1″-6″ of rain has fallen since Monday. I was thinking some places would top three inches. And, so it did.
A cold front will push into the region on Friday night and early Saturday morning. This front could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas just to our northwest for Friday evening and night. Some storms could be strong. But, believe mostly towards St Louis. Monitor updates.
A cold weekend ahead of us. At least for overnight lows. By Sunday morning some of our locations will dip into the 30s! I am hoping the frost risk remains to our north and northeast. Right now that does appear to be the case. But, with that said, upper 30s are certainly possible over parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky on Sunday morning.
Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will likely remain in the 60s.
Another weather maker will push towards our region on Sunday into the middle of next week. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday afternoon and night. Mostly over the southern part of Missouri into western Tennessee. I will need to monitor the track of a warm front on Sunday night. Showers and storms could push further north.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday. Confidence is rather low on the exact placement of key weather features. That includes the track of the area of low pressure and the warm front. This will be important. If the low passes to our north and west then some strong storms will be possible. For now we will take a wait and see approach. The forecast numbers for Tuesday might need to be adjusted.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monitoring Friday evening and night for a few thunderstorms.
Severe weather is not anticipated Saturday into Sunday night
I will be monitoring early next week for another storm system to approach our region from the southwest.
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Updated probabilities for rainfall over the coming days. Temperatures, as well
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No major concerns once the cold front moves out of our region on Thursday afternoon and evening
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No. I will be monitoring next week for additional shower and thunderstorm chances.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
