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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday Night – A few clouds and chilly. Lows in the 40’s. Northwest winds at 5-15 mph. Gusty winds this evening.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant. Spring weather! Highs in the 70’s with east and northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel any plans.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures mostly in the 40’s. Light winds.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy. Mild. Temperatures in the 70’s with northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Lows in the 50’s. East winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel any plans.
Thursday – Becoming cloudy with a chance for a few showers mainly from late morning into the afternoon hours. The best chances might remain over southeast Missouri and northwest parts of southern Illinois. But, still some uncertainty on this subject. Highs in the 70’s with southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Morning should be fine. Maybe some precipitation during the afternoon…low chances at any given spot.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. Maybe a scattered shower or thunderstorm (10%-20% chance). Mild with lows in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Winds could be gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. A system coming in from the southwest could start to interact with our regions weather.
Friday – Cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm (30%-40% chance – monitor updates, still some questions on Friday). Warmer. Highs in the 80’s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph and gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. A system coming in from the southwest could start to interact with our regions weather.
Weekend? I am already thinking we will have storms in the forecast. Monitor updates, as always.
Have you checked out my social media feed page? You can view the latest Tweets and Facebook posts…all in one location. Click here to view the page.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Another nice day for Wednesday! Spring weather.
2. Rain chances begin to increase on Thursday and could continue into next week.
3. Unsettled forecast for the long range.
Tuesday was a nice day…a bit windy in spots, but not too bad.
Wednesday will be another nice day! A chilly start to the morning with temperatures in many counties starting out in the 40’s. That is cool for the middle of May. But, by afternoon we should rise into the 70’s.
We do have some weather changes by the end of the week. A series of upper level disturbances will push in from the southwest. This is a very similar pattern from last Thursday through Monday. Parts of our region picked up 1 to 6 inches of rain from those disturbances. Other areas picked up NO rain. Quite amazing. Western Kentucky needs rain. Not a good situation for farmers.
Once again it appears that our western and northern halves of the region may experience the best chances for rain.
Timing will once again be tricky for each disturbance. This type of pattern is a bit of a headache for forecasters. Especially when trying to forecast for a wide area. Some places will have a lot of rain. Others may once again miss out.
Once again if you have outdoor plans on Friday through Sunday then you will need to monitor updates. As I said last week…don’t cancel any plans. Have a plan B…just in case. Some of you did just fine last weekend and some of you were basically rained out.
You will need to monitor forecast updates. I will have to time each disturbance as we move forward.
The first signal for scattered precipitation will arrive on Thursday afternoon. Friday is in question for our western and northern counties. Strong signals for some rain and storms over the weekend.
Dew points will be low on Wednesday, once again. This is why it feels so nice outside. Very little moisture. High dew points mean muggy air. Low dew points mean pleasant conditions.
Let’s compare Wednesday and Friday dew points. You can really see the increase in moisture.
Here is the Wednesday morning dew point map
Here are the Friday dew points
What are dew points? Well, another great question. A lot of people confuse humidity and dew points. I like to use dew points to measure moisture in the air. This is the better way, actually. To learn more about dew points…click here
Most of May has been warmer than normal. Appears that will continue later this week into part of next week. Perhaps some cooler weather behind a front on Monday. Here are the departures from normal since May 1st.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – No wild card for today or tonight.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder possible. Right now it does not look like severe weather will be a concern, but monitor updates. It is May!
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder possible. Right now it does not look like severe weather will be a concern, but monitor updates.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunder possible. Right now it does not look like severe weather will be a concern, but monitor updates.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals Thursday through next Tuesday. Again, amounts will vary. Remember last weekend? Same goes for this coming weekend.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Unsettled weather will be the rule through the end of May
2. The main concern will be some locally heavy rain. Very heavy for some?
3. What about severe weather chances?
4. Cooler spell around next Tuesday and Wednesday after a cold front moves through the area
The long range pattern will be typical May weather. On and off shower and thunderstorm chances. The one thing missing from our forecast will be widespread severe thunderstorm activity. Wind fields just aren’t all that favorable for severe storms.
With that said, it is May. You can have one or two thunderstorms that produce high winds, down bursts, and hail. But, organized severe weather is not currently in the forecast through Sunday. Monitor updates, things can change.
Locally heavy rain will be a concern as some of the weather elements stall out in our region later this week into next week (and really into the end of the month). Lot of moisture for thunderstorms to work with. If training storms occur then some places can easily pick up several inches of rain. Again, using last week as a great example. Some places had many inches of rain and others were bone dry.
Temperatures will average mostly above normal through the weekend and into early next week.
I would not be surprised if some places pick up another 5-8 inches of rain between now and the end of May.
A cold front arrives on Monday/Tuesday. Cooler air by Tuesday and Wednesday. Then another surge of moisture by later next week.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
