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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
May 12th through May 18tth
Current risk: Monitor updates.
Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.
Comment: I am monitoring late Thursday into next week. Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible. Some of the storms will likely be severe. We will need to monitor the tornado potential.
A couple of cold fronts and upper level disturbances will push across the region. Each of these will trigger scattered thunderstorms. Monitor updates.
We are outlined for severe weather on both Thursday and Friday. We will need to monitor the tornado risk.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today through Tuesday evening. I am monitoring late Thursday through next Tuesday. A few rounds of storms are likely.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Severe thunderstorms will be possible in or near our region late Thursday through next Tuesday. On and off showers and thunderstorms. There will be quite a bit of instability. Some of the thunderstorms will likely be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. I will monitor the tornado risk, as well.
I will need to monitor the latest trends in the guidance and fine-tune the forecast. Monitor updated forecasts and app notifications.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? POSSIBLE. Some reporting stations will hit 90 degrees on Thursday.
6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Forecast discussion.
- Showers and thunderstorms are likely today. A chance will continue into Tuesday evening.
- Showers and thunderstorms will rotate around the area of low pressure. Moving counter-clockwise.
- Much warmer this week.
- Some reporting stations will be quite warm on Wednesday and Thursday. Some locations will hit 90 degrees on Thursday! Heat index values will be in the nineties.
- I am monitoring the risk of severe thunderstorms late this week into next week. Questions remain on timing and placement. Monitor updated forecasts over the coming days.
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Good morning, everyone.
We are waking up to showers and thunderstorms scattered throughout the region. Some downpours here and there, as well.
No severe weather concerns today. That is the good news.
This is what radar looked like at 6 AM. See the live radar links at the top of the page.
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Why is the rain moving in odd directions?
That is because of an upper-level low to our south. Remember, low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. That means rain pivots around it.
If the low is to our south, our rain moves southeast to northwest. Spinning around the area of low pressure.
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You can also see that spin on the 500 MB vort on the GFS model.
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That system will spiral northward today and tonight.
Peak rain chances will be this afternoon during the heat of the day. That is when energy will be a bit higher. Thus, an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Locally heavy downpours, lightning, and pea-sized hail are possible with the most intense storms. Cold air funnels are possible, as well. There is a small threat of a landspout.
We did have a landspout last week. It did not produce any damage.
There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly before 10 PM. Then, with the loss of daytime heating, the showers and storms will weaken. Lower chances after 10 pm.
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday morning. Then, we peak heating of the day, we will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Mainly east of the Mississippi River. Lower chances west of the Mississippi River.
We will dry out on Tuesday night.
Wednesday will be warm and most likely dry. Temperatures will rise into the eighties. More humid, as well.
It will be warm/hot on Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values will jump into the 90s.
Dew points will become muggy on Wednesday and Thursday. Perhaps in the 70s! That is air you wear. Humid!
Those dew points will linger into early next week. They will go up and down depending on the placement of the cold front. Those north of the front won’t be as muggy. Those south of the front will be muggier.
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Dew points are a measure of moisture. Those high dew points will help build an unstable atmosphere, as well. Thunderstorms in these dew points will produce heavy downpours, as well (plenty of moisture to tap into).
Here are the dew points
Wednesday
Thursday
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A cold front will push towards the region on Thursday and Friday.
We are outlooked for a severe weather threat on Thursday afternoon and night.
Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook. This is a level two (slight) risk of severe weather. This will evolve (it is four/five days away).
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We will be capped. This raises questions about the threat level. It is possible that the threat will remain to our north. I will need to monitor it.
What is a cap? A warm layer of air aloft that prevents thunderstorms from forming.
I have 20% thunderstorm chances on Thursday. I have 30% thunderstorm chances on Thursday night. If storms form, they would likely be severe. There will be no shortage of instability and wind shear. Lapse rates are marginal.
With some luck, the cap will hold, and we will remain dry. Let’s not count on that, just yet. I will know more tomorrow and Wednesday, of course.
Thunderstorm chances will increase on Friday. Some of those thunderstorms could also be severe.
We are outlined for a level two (slight) risk of severe weather on Friday, as well. Most of the region.
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Keep in mind these are the day five and six severe weather outlooks. They will evolve and move around.
Here are the CAPE levels on Thursday. These are high numbers. Plenty of unstable air, but questions remain on whether storms will form during the day. A strong cap could help prevent storms. Not a lock, but it is something that I am monitoring.
Again, if storms form in this atmosphere, then they would be severe.
Friday’s CAPE
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Unsettled weather is likely Friday night through next Tuesday.
Peak thunderstorm chances early next week will likely be on Monday or Tuesday. Some of those could be severe, as well. Monitor updates.
Here are the CAPE numbers for next Tuesday. Not as high, but wind shear may be higher. Severe weather is possible next week along the cold front.
Monitor updates.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM model. This is a short-range model.
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Here is the GFS model for later this week into the following week.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
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⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
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Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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