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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A slight chance of lightning today and tonight. On and off lightning chances Friday through much of next week. Peak chances in the short-range will be Friday night/Saturday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A low-end risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night across mostly southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. I will monitor Sunday afternoon area-wide. Low-end risk. I will then be monitoring next Tuesday through Thursday. Several thunderstorm complexes will be possible.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely. With that said, thunderstorms this time of the year can produce torrential downpours.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Unlikely.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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May 12, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. There will be somewhat less humid area over our eastern counties. There is a slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 5% / the rest of South IL ~ 5% / West KY ~ 5% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 5% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (low chances)
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 90° / West KY 88° to 90° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning. The chances are low.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of a thunderstorm over mainly southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 5% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 5% / the rest of South IL ~ 5% / West KY ~ 5% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 5% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (low chance)
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning (low chances)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:09 PM
Moonset: 3:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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May 13, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Mainly over southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, and northwest Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadway. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:17 PM
Moonset: 4:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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May 14, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 84° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly early in the night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 6:29 PM
Moonset: 4:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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May 15, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 7:57 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° / South IL 54° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Moonrise: 7:43 PM
Moonset: 5:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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May 16, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:01 PM
Moonset: 6:00 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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May 17, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 7:59 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 10:17 PM
Moonset: 6:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through May 20th: There is a low-end risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night across mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. High wind and hail will be the main concern.
Thunderstorms Saturday could be locally strong, but the risk of severe weather is low.
I am watching Sunday afternoon for a few intense thunderstorms. Confidence in severe weather is low.
I am watching next Tuesday through Thursday. Storms are possible. It is too early to know if severe weather is a concern.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Warm weather today. Somewhat cooler Friday into the weekend.
- Unsettled weather pattern developing with several chances of summer-like showers and thunderstorms.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
Well, our first week of “summer” like weather is about to go in record books.
The good news, for those who don’t like the heat and muggy weather, is that a pattern change is about to take place. Temperatures will be lower and we will have shower and thunderstorm chances increasing.
Today and tonight
Mostly dry across the region. There is a small chance of an isolated thunderstorm developing this afternoon or tonight. The vast majority of the region will remain dry, warm, and quite humid.
Our eastern counties, however, will be a tad cooler today and a bit less muggy.
You can see that on this dew point chart for this afternoon. Notice the somewhat less muggy air moving in from the east.
Dew point controls how muggy it feels outside. We have been experiencing widespread dew points in the 70s. That is air you wear. Muggy!
Notice on the animation the purple color is decreasing. That is good news. Lower dew points.
Highs today will once again be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Friday into Sunday
A bit more unsettled over the weekend.
We will have several upper level disturbances push across the region this weekend. Each one will spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Peak chances will be Friday night into Saturday.
There is a low-end risk of a few severe thunderstorms. The main concern will be damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low. The overall severe weather risk, at any given location, is small.
Lightning will be a concern for campers. Locally heavy downpours.
With a few more clouds around, temperatures will be somewhat lower Friday into Sunday. Mostly 80s.
Don’t plan on a washout Friday into Saturday. I would not cancel my outdoor plans. I would, however, monitor updates and radars. There could be some time periods with precipitation. Plan accordingly.
There is some question about the precipitation % numbers Sunday and Sunday night. Data indicates a frontal boundary may push across our region. If this happens, then showers and thunderstorms will likely occur along it.
Rain totals Friday through Sunday will vary greatly. It is possible some locations receive very little in the way of rainfall. Other areas may pick up an inch of rain. Typical for a summer-like pattern.
Monday through Thursday
Next week looks unsettled with the possibility of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. MCS season is upon us. Those are thunderstorm complexes that typically push in from the west/northwest.
We call this northwest flow. When the jet stream dives into our region from the northwest.
Let me show you that on these two charts.
The current upper level pattern features a ridge over our region. A ridge usually means heat and humidity. That is what we have been experiencing.
I drew the red lines to show you the wind flow.
Next week, however, the ridge is gone. Northwesterly winds develop over our region.
See how the red lines dip into our region from the northwest? That is northwest flow.
Little ripples of energy (upper level disturbances) will push through the fast flow. Those can produce showers and thunderstorms.
We will need to monitor each disturbance. I have low-end shower/thunderstorm chances in the forecast Monday night into much of next week. There will likely be adjustments to the % numbers as confidence increases in the timing and placement of the disturbances.
Temperatures next week will be in the 80s.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers May 12th through May 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are usually updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers May 19th through May 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers May 24th through June 6th
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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