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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Wednesday Afternoon: Thunderstorms are possible. Some storms could produce torrential downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, damaging wind, and hail. Tornado risk is not zero. Monitor watches and warnings. High temperatures in the 80s.
Not a slam dunk forecast for tonight or tomorrow morning. Where storms form is still a bit questionable. Keep that in mind.
Wednesday Night – Thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be intense. Will be watching a line of storms pushing into our region from central Missouri. Storms may be ongoing in the evening, as well. Perhaps the best chance for widespread storms will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. But, all areas should monitor.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Any storms that do form could be intense.
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather is possible. Closely monitor updated forecasts.
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning. Severe storms possible. Frequent lightning.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Need a lightning tracker website? Here you go
Thursday – Partly sunny. Thunderstorms likely. Perhaps more centered over Kentucky and Tennessee. But, it is possible the entire region has to deal with some storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: West winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% – 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather is possible. Especially over southeast Illinois into Kentucky/Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few severe storms possible.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible early.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly early)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Possibly early in the evening over our eastern and southeastern counties.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Severe storms possible.
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming southwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% late. Mainly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Saturday – Partly sunny. Cooler. Isolated light shower possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range
Winds: North/northeast at 5-10 with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly sunny. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: East/southeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% in the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Lightning.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-54 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roads
Monday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Winds: East/northeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Slight chance for showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected?
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected?
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Severe weather
- Heavy rain
Short update today.
Severe storms have raked our region over the past 48 hours. Obviously many of you know this. Some of you have been severely impacted by the storms. Sorry for the losses. Weather can be dangerous in our region.
We have several more severe weather threats over the next 48 hours.
Wednesday afternoon:
Storms may develop over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. We also have ongoing storms over parts of western Kentucky. The main concern will be heavy rain, damaging winds, and hail. Frequent lightning. The tornado risk is not zero. Monitor updates frequently.
Wednesday Night:
Cold front approaches our region from the northwest. A line of storms may form along the front and move southeast. The storms could be intense. Damaging winds will be the main concern. Tornado risk is not zero. The greatest risk on Wednesday night might end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Thursday:
Cold front will push through our region. A new round of storms may form over parts of southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Some of the storms could become severe. Monitor any watches and warnings that are issued.
Busy time for me. Busy time for everyone in the weather community.
Check your weather information frequently. Forecasts can and often do change a bit. Severe weather is tricky to forecast.
Your reports are vital. Please let the NWS know if you experience severe weather. You can Tweet them @nwspah and @nwspaducah. You can email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
I posted this on Facebook earlier today
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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A level THREE severe weather threat will be with us on Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. There could be periods of time when the threat level will need to be raised.
Main idea to take from this forecast is monitor updates.
Wednesday afternoon and night: Severe storms are possible. Monitor updates. Perhaps best chance late in the day into late Wednesday night.
Thursday: Severe storms are possible. Mainly over southeast Illinois and Kentucky/Tennessee. Monitor updates.
Friday: Severe storms are not anticipated.
Saturday and Sunday: Monitor updates
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Updated temperatures. Updated severe weather wording.
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The main concern continues to be the risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, and Thursday. I would encourage you to monitor weather updates as we move forward.
Watches and warnings are possible over the next 48 hours.
The main concern will be hail and damaging winds. Isolated tornado risk.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain has already fallen since Monday in our region. Heaviest totals have been over parts of western Kentucky.
Another 1-3″ is possible over the next 48 hours. Where storms train the totals will be the highest.
Additional rain is possible as we move into the weekend and especially next week. Monitor updates. Avoid flooded roadways.
Broad brushed rainfall forecast through Wednesday
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
