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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds. It will be cooler and less humid. High temperatures in the 70’s. Gusty west/northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel any plans.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures mostly in the 50’s. Light winds.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy. Mild. Temperatures in the 70’s with northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy and cool. Lows in the 40’s to around 50. Light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel any plans.
Wednesday – Quite a bit of sun over the northern half of the region. Some clouds over the southern half of the area. It will be mild with highs mostly in the 70’s. East and northeast winds during the morning at 10-15 mph. East winds in the afternoon at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel any plans.
Wednesday night – An increase in clouds. Lows in the 50’s. East and southeast winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel any plans.
Thursday – Quite a few clouds. A 20%-30% chance for a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees. Southeast winds at 10-15 mph. I will have to monitor rain trends for Thursday afternoon. Some questions as to whether the system will be able to produce any rain in our region by Thursday afternoon. It might hold off until Thursday night. I will update accordingly…as we move through the week.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. A system coming in from the southwest could start to interact with our regions weather.
Weekend? I am already thinking we will have storms in the forecast. Monitor updates, as always.
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Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A pleasant Tuesday and Wednesday is on tap for the region
2. Some 40’s possible for overnight lows by Wednesday morning
3. Some of you really missed out on the heavy rains over the past 4 days
4. Unsettled pattern redeveloping for late in the week and into next week
A lot of rain fell over the region on Thursday night into Monday. Over six inches of rain in some locations, But, yet…some of you picked up less than 0.25″. Quite amazing differences. The western and northern half of the region received the most rainfall. Western Kentucky received the least rainfall.
It is actually quite dry now across some of the area.
Let’s look at some maps.
This map shows you the departure from normal precipitation over the past 10 days. Note how dry it is for some of our local counties. WELL below normal precipitation. Mostly over western Kentucky.
Here is the percent of normal precipitation. Some places have only received 5-10% of their normal May rainfall. Very very dry. We need some widespread rain over Kentucky.
How about temperatures? Here are the departure from normal temperatures for the Month of May, thus far. Well above normal temperatures.
Bottom line…some of you missed out on a lot of rain. Just the nature of the beast with this type of pattern. Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois picked up inches and inches of rain (some counties).
Here is the rainfall totals from Sunday into Monday morning. This does not count the 1-3 inches that fell on Thursday into Saturday night. Scale is on the left side of the page. Again, this is only from Sunday into Monday morning.
If you need rain then you will have additional chances Thursday night into next week. A very unsettled look to the charts. See the long range discussion for more details.
High temperatures Tuesday into Thursday are going to be nice. It will feel like spring.
Tuesday morning lows will be on the chilly side
Tuesday high temperature map
Wednesday morning lows will be on the chilly side
Wednesday high temperature map
Dew points will be on the low side through Wednesday night.
What are dew points? Well, another great question. A lot of people confuse humidity and dew points. I like to use dew points to measure moisture in the air. This is the better way, actually. To learn more about dew points…click here
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No major concerns.
No. Weather will be nice into Thursday morning, at least.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – If there is a wild card in the forecast it would be overnight lows. Can some of us dip into the 40’s by Wednesday morning? Appears possible! At the very least it will be in the 50’s. Should be nice outside…if you like your temperatures on the cool side.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated. Maybe some thunder by Thursday afternoon or Thursday night.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain today into Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Perhaps rain chances increase by Thursday afternoon or night and then into the weekend.
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Unsettled pattern quickly returns to our region by late Thursday
2. More showers and storm chances this weekend? Another wet weekend for some?
3. Unsettled into next week? Appears that way. Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.
As mentioned above, some of you need rain for your fields and gardens. It has been very dry for May…for some. Others are begging for the rain to stop. We live in an interesting region for forecasting the weather. Seems like feast or famine is usually the way it goes.
The good news for western Kentucky (and others that need rain) is that we will have some more rain chances over the coming week(s). It is spring, spring usually does bring rain chances. Let’s hope some of you pick up a soaking rain for your fields and gardens.
A very unsettled look to the weather map as we enter Thursday and Friday. This unsettled pattern will last well into next week. The last half of May could bring some heavy storms and rain to the region.
Several cold fronts will move into the region later this week and next week. A couple of areas of low pressure, as well. All of this means rain and thunderstorm chances.
Too early to speak about severe weather. It is that time of the year. We have been fortunate this year. Very low severe weather numbers. That has been the case for much of the United States. Again, we are thankful for the lack of severe weather. We just need some rain (for some of our area).
Let’s look at the GFS precipitation maps. This is broad-brushed look at rain chances. The purple/pink/blue represents precipitation.
As always, timing of precipitation will need to be ironed out with each approaching disturbance. Often times that is not known until the night before or day of. Especially true this time of the year.
These images are from wright-weather. Click an image for a larger view.
This is the Thursday morning surface map. You can see precipitation to our west and southwest.
This is the Thursday afternoon surface map. Precipitation attempting to move into our region. You can see an area of low pressure over Nebraska. The closed lines are isobars. Cold front trails from the low down into the Missouri Valley and Plains.
By Friday morning you can see a line of showers and storms moving through our region. The purple and blue colors represent the rain and storms.
This is the Saturday map. You can see a lot of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front has stalled out over our region. If this happens (big IF) then locally heavy rain is a good bet. Something to keep in mind. What is it about weekends?
By Sunday…precipitation chances continue. At least scattered. If the front moves through the area then we won’t have the rain chances. Assuming it does not stall out. Big questions on the weekend forecast. Low confidence, of course, this far out.
By Monday morning…another front approaching from the west? This is a messy pattern developing. It will be hard to time disturbances this far out.
Pulling ahead to Tuesday. Again, if the front stalls out then rain chances will increase. If the front moves further south or east then our rain chances go down.
Bottom line…an unsettled pattern could develop later this week and last into next week. Lot of questions remain as to where the front will stall out (if it stalls out).
Last half of May might be wet and stormy. Stay tuned.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
