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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could produce hail and strong winds. The tornado risk is low.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming west and northwest and then becoming north at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. I can’t rule out a few reports of strong wind and even hail.
Is severe weather expected? Yes, there is a risk that a few storms could become severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. Coverage may diminish from the north late tonight.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B. It might rain.
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May 12, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance for morning showers. A thunderstorm possible. Cooler. A chance for showers during the afternoon, but ending from west to east as the day wears on. If you have outdoor activities on Friday then plan for some showers and hope for the best.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL 65 to 70 KY 65 to 70 TN 65 to 70
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered before 12 pm. Decreasing coverage as the afternoon wears on.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts. Some showers possible.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None other than perhaps fog
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 13, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL 72 to 76 KY 72 to 76 TN 72 to 76
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None. Monitor fog chances during the morning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: Variable wind at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 14, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL 76 to 84 KY 76 to 84 TN 76 to 84
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 15, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Quite warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South and southwest at 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 16, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 82 to 86 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest at 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 17, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL 75 to 80 KY 75 to 80 TN 75 to 80
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest at 5 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Thursday night: We will have thunderstorms along a frontal boundary that will be moving southward through the region. Some of the storms could produce hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is low. Monitor updates in case watches and warnings are issued. I will be sending out text messages. You can sign up for those messages at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Friday into Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. There is a small risk for lightning on Friday.
Wednesday through Friday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms will again appear in the forecast.
Weather Analysis for the coming week:
We still have rivers out of their banks across most of the region. Be sure and check out the latest lake and river stages. Here is the link to view those ~ River Stage Forecasts
The big weather story, in the short term, will be the ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity. A frontal boundary is slipping southward through the area, as of this writing.
The front will sag southward on Thursday evening and night. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Some of the storms could be intense with frequent lightning, hail, and strong wind gusts. Locally heavy rain, as well.
An area of low pressure will pass to our south Thursday night and Friday. There will be some showers north of the low. This will keep rain chances over at least the southern two-thirds of the region into Friday morning. This will also mean cooler temperatures on Friday. You can expect highs to remain mostly in the 60’s.
There remain some questions on coverage of precipitation on Friday morning. Quite a bit of guidance indicates scattered rain. Perhaps we will have more dry than wet before 12 pm Friday. Hopefully that will be the case. I know many of you have outdoor events on Friday.
Showers should end from west to east by Friday afternoon and evening. Precipitation will first end over southeast Missouri and will linger longest of the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Friday night through Sunday night:
Cooler temperatures are anticipated for Friday, Friday night, and Saturday. You can expect highs into the lower to middle 70’s on Saturday with plenty of sunshine. Highs by Sunday should reach into the upper 70’s and perhaps some 80’s.
You can see the temperature map here
Saturday highs
Sunday highs
Monday and Tuesday should remain dry.
An unsettled weather pattern returns Wednesday through at least Friday. Periods of thunderstorms will be possible. We will need to monitor for strong storms. Still a bit early to make a call on the details. Signals for unsettled weather are in the charts.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
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The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
