May 11, 2023: Thunderstorm chances.

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how many degrees above or below average temperatures will be).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset is also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today through Sunday. Thunderstorms will produce lightning.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. There will be time periods (mainly during the afternoon hours) when there is quite a bit of energy in the atmosphere. I can’t rule out severe weather. At this time, organized widespread severe weather appears unlikely. I will keep a close eye on it.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Slow moving thunderstorms this time of the year can produce heavy rain. Overall, the flash flood risk is low, but not zero. If thunderstorms were to train over the same areas, then some ponding of water if brief flash flooding could occur.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

Thursday, May 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lower chances during the morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the afternoon (but storms could occur at any given time)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 9:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Friday, May 12, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Higher coverage during the afternoon and evening.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:09 AM
Moonset: 12:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

Saturday, May 13, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Higher coverage during the afternoon and evening.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:43 AM
Moonset: 1:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Sunday, May 14, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Higher coverage during the afternoon and evening.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Gusty winds. Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:12 AM
Moonset: 2:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights

1. Thunderstorm chances return to the region.
2. Unsettled into the weekend.
3. Cooler next week with northwest jet-stream flow.

Weather advice:

As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Forecast Discussion

Another mild day for the region. Increasing thunderstorm chances. More humid/higher dew points.

Several upper level disturbances will move across the region over the coming days. Each one will produce a round of showers and thunderstorms.

Peak time for rain chances will likely be the afternoon and evening hours. This is when instability will be highest. In other words, the atmosphere will be the most unstable.

Wind shear is weak today. Thus, the threat of severe thunderstorms today is very low. Some of the storms could produce heavy downpours and cloud to ground lightning.

Wind shear will increase a bit Friday and Saturday. Not a lot. CAPE values will be higher tomorrow and Saturday. Remember, CAPE is a measure of instability in the atmosphere. CAPE is what thunderstorms feed off of. Higher CAPE numbers mean a higher chance of a few severe thunderstorms.

Here is the Friday afternoon CAPE map. High numbers. The atmosphere will be quite unstable.

Lapse rates will be high, as well. Lapse rate is how much the atmosphere cools with height. Higher lapse rates are signal for severe weather and hail.

The good news is that wind shear won’t be high. It will be enough, however, for some concerns.

A few of the Friday and Saturday thunderstorms could produce high wind, hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is low.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of our region for a level one right of severe weather Friday and Saturday.

Dark green is the level one risk (lowest risk).

Friday

Saturday risk outlook.

As far as coverage of precipitation goes, it appears today may have the highest coverage. I have numerous showers and thunderstorms in today’s forecast. I have at least scattered thunderstorms in tonight’s forecast right on through at least Sunday night. A few lingering showers will be possible Monday.

A weak cold front or wind shift will move across the region Sunday night and Monday. This will shut down the rain chances.

Again, peak chances will be during the heat of the day (each afternoon and evening).

It will also mean cooler air and less humid air. Next week will deliver below average temperatures and less humidity. It will feel nicer outside. Spring air.

You can see the jet stream on this map (for next TUE/WED). It dives in from the northwest. Typically, this delivers cooler and less humid air to our region.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the SPC WRF Model.

This animation is the Hrrr Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the NAM Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the GFS Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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