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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms. Fog possible. Dense fog in areas.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some storms are possible. But, coverage is questionable. Best advice is to monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense early in the evening. Severe weather is possible. Then, late tonight some new storms may form. They could be intense. Hail possible late tonight.
What impact is expected? Fog. Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds and hail possible if storms do form.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Need a lightning tracker website? Here you go
Wednesday – Partly sunny and very warm/muggy. A few morning storms. Then, perhaps more developing in the afternoon.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 80s.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (mainly morning hours). Then a 20% chance for afternoon storms.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Severe storms are possible
What impact is expected? If storms form then they could produce lightning, strong winds, hail, and heavy rain. Tornado risk is not zero
Wednesday Night – Thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be intense. Will be watching a line of storms pushing into our region from central Missouri
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Any storms that do form could be intense.
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather is possible. Closely monitor updated forecasts.
What impact is expected? Heavy rain. Lightning. Severe storms possible.
Thursday – Partly sunny. A scattered shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: West winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few strong storms possible.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Showers possible early.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly early)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: West and northwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Lower confidence on the forecast for the weekend
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming southwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Saturday – Partly sunny. Cooler. Isolated light shower possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Showers possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: North/northeast at 5-10 with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected?
Sunday – Partly sunny. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: East/southeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Monday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Winds: East/northeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Slight chance for showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warmer. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
Thursday – Partly sunny. Warmer. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Is severe weather expected?
What impact is expected?
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Did not have time to update this post with fresh information.
A large tornado outbreak occurred on Tuesday. The NWS will be conducting storm surveys.
More severe storms possible on Wednesday.
Old update from Tuesday morning.
- Wind damage from Monday night
- Stormy pattern
- Additional severe storms?
- Weekend rain?
Severe storms swept through southeast Missouri on Monday night. Wind damage was reported form northern ARkansass into southern Missouri. The storms weakened as they moved into Illinois and Kentucky. The air was more stable over those areas. Here is a graphic that shows you were some of the wind damage occurred. Circles are high winds.
You can click images to make them larger.
On Tuesday morning we had a band of storms over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. I grabbed a couple of images.
This is a diagram of what a towering cumulonimbus cloud looks like. See that overshooting top? That is where a strong updraft pushes that storm higher than surrounding areas.
Here is a radar image of a storm over Alexander and Pulaski Counties in southern Illinois. This was around 8 am on Tuesday morning.
Now, let me show you a 3D image of the storm. I am actually looking at the cloud structure and precipitation. The bright colors are near a strong updraft. The storm is producing heavy rain and perhaps small hail. The red colors represent that heavy precipitation falling through the storm. See the overshooting top? Click image for a larger view.
Isn’t science amazing!
Okay, enough of that.
Check out rainfall totals from Monday night. A widespread 0.50″-2.5″ event occurred. And, pockets of greater than three inches was also observed. Additional rain fell on Tuesday morning (that is not included in this graphic). Scale is on the left side of the image. Click for a larger view.
We have an unsettled pattern that will continue into next week. On and off shower and thunderstorm chances will be with us for awhile. Some of the storms could be intense.
One round of storms is possible on Tuesday afternoon and night. If storms form they could become severe. I recommend that you monitor updates. Hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.
Most of Wednesday may end up dry. The atmosphere will become quite unstable on Wednesday. CAPE values will likely exceed 3000 or 4000 across the region. CAPE is a measure of energy in the atmosphere. The higher that CAPE numbers the more intense storms can become.
The real question on Wednesday will be a trigger. Most of the day may see little or no real trigger for storms. But, with that said, if storms do form they would become severe.
A better chance of storms will move into the region on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A cold front will bump into the warm and unstable atmosphere. Thus, a line of storms is possible in the region.
The line of storms should form over northern to central Missouri. This would be on Wednesday afternoon. Then the line will move east and southeast. Questions remain as to how far south and east the storms will track. Monitor updates.
The best chance for severe weather, on Wednesday, will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lesser chances elsewhere. Again, monitor updated forecasts.
Showers and storms may linger into Thursday.
We should dry out, for the most part, on Thursday night and Friday.
Another cold front moves into the region on Friday night and Saturday morning. Some showers are possible along the front.
A boundary is forecast to set up over our region on Saturday night into Monday. If this does occur then several periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible. The placement of the boundary will be key to precipitation probabilities. You will notice that I placed the weekend forecast in the low confidence category.
It does appear that we may have several rain/storm chances next week, as well. Our wet pattern continues. Unsettled.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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A level THREE severe weather threat will be with us on Tuesday night through Wednesday night. There could be periods of time when the threat level will need to be raised.
Main idea to take from this forecast is monitor updates.
Tuesday night: Strong to potentially severe storms are possible. Monitor updates.
Wednesday morning: Severe storms are not anticipated
Wednesday afternoon and night: Severe storms are possible. Monitor updates. Perhaps best chance late in the day into late Wednesday night.
Thursday: Severe storms are not anticipated
Friday: Severe storms are not anticipated.
Saturday and Sunday: Monitor updates
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I continue to update the day by day rain probabilities. Lower confidence as we head into the weekend and early next week
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The main concern will be thunderstorms. Storms that form over the next 48 hours could be strong to even severe. We had quite a bit of wind damage on Monday night in the region. And, additional reports of severe weather are likely.
I am most concerned about Wednesday night. A cold front will push through the region. This will spark a line of storms over Missouri. This line will move east and southeast. Monitor updates. Perhaps the best chance for severe weather reports will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Best advice, this time of the year, is to monitor updates.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Parts of the region picked up one to three inches of rain on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Additional heavy rain is possible in thunderstorms over the next 24-36 hours. Another round of storms possible this weekend into early next week.
Broad brushed rainfall forecast through Monday
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
