9 AM Update
The risk for severe weather is very small for today. It isn’t zero. It is very small. Gusty winds would be the main concern.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are the averages
Monday – Mostly cloudy. A chance for morning showers and thunderstorms. Then, a chance for afternoon storms (especially eastern counties in southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and parts of western Kentucky). Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Winds from the south at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 20 mph. Winds becoming west/northwest late in the day.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B ready to go. There will be some precipitation in the region.
Morning School Bus Stop Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s. Southerly winds at 10 mph.
Afternoon School Bus Stop Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance for a thunderstorm. Temperatures in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s.
Monday night – Evening precipitation evening. Clearing. Cooler and less humid. Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. West winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps a few lingering showers early in the evening. Then dry weather.
Tuesday – Partly sunny and cooler. Less humid. Highs in the 70’s. Northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Tuesday Night – Clear and cool. Lows in the 40’s. Light winds.
Wednesday – Pleasant and spring like. A few clouds. Highs in the 70’s. Winds from the northeast/east 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A cold front arrives on Monday. This front will move eastward and clear our region by tonight.
2. Showers and storms will occur along the front. Maybe a few heavy storms.
3. Cooler for Monday night into Wednesday. A little cooler, nothing major.
4. Unsettled pattern returns later this week into next week. On/off storm chances. See the extended discussion at the bottom of the page.
Well, some of you have picked up a LOT of rain over the last few days. Inches of rain, as a matter of fact. But, some of you have barely picked up enough to wet the ground. A cold front arrives on Monday and should bring widespread showers and thunderstorms.
The cold front will enter southeast Missouri late on Monday morning and early afternoon. It will then sweep eastward and clear our region by Monday night. The front will usher in cooler temperatures and a less humid air mass.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a few severe thunderstorms on Monday. It is a marginal set-up. We are not going to see a lot of CAPE (CAPE is basically energy) today. Clouds and morning precipitation will keep instability fairly low. So, I am not overly impressed with the potential for severe storms. But, officially we are outlined for such.
If the sky would clear out and if we heated into the 80’s then I would be more concerned. But, it appears there will be quite a bit of cloud cover. If a few storms were to become severe then perhaps the best chances of that happening would be along the Ohio River in Indiana and Kentucky. Perhaps even southeast Illinois. More our eastern counties vs western.
Bottom line…monitor updates today in case a few storms do become severe with high winds and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. This is not a classic set-up for severe weather in our region.
Our quiet shhhhh May weather continues…at least on the widespread severe weather front. That is good news! Each passing week clears us of another potential problem. Once we enter mid to late June then the higher risk for tornadoes will be to our north. Although, we can have a tornado during any given month of the year. We are currently at our peak time.
Cooler and drier air will arrive Monday night. Lows by Wednesday morning could even dip into the 40’s across parts of the area. That is chilly for the middle of May! I think you will like Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s weather. Highs in the 70’s. It will feel like spring outside.
Unsettled weather returns soon enough…see the long range discussion further down in the blog.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Any storms that form could produce lightning, heavy downpours, gusty winds, and maybe some hail. I am a little concerned that a few storms could become severe. It is questionable, however, because of the lack of instability on Monday. If clouds and rain are occurring in the morning then that will keep CAPE (energy) values to a minimum. That reduces the severe weather risk.
Bottom line…monitor updates in the event a few storms become severe.
Yes, monitor updates. Some thunderstorms will occur as a cold front sweeps east. I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm. The main concern would probably be strong winds and perhaps hail. Isolated tornado risk. Overall this setup is not all that impressive, But, it only takes one bad storm to cause problems.
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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be a TWO/THREE. Cold front sweeps through the area. We could see a few storms become severe. Again, the best chance will likely be over our eastern counties. Monitor updates.
Instability may be lacking. Morning cloud cover and rain will also keep instability low. If we clear out then instability would increase. We will see how it goes. The discussion at the top of the page covers the forecast.
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Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Can’t rule out thunderstorms. A bit early to consider severe weather. Monitor updates, as always
Friday-Sunday – Monitor updates. Some storms possible.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Showers and thunderstorms today will produce a variety of rainfall totals, as is usually the case this time of the year.
Some places may not pick up much at all. If a thunderstorm moves over your location then you can pick up a quick 0.25″ or 0.50″ of precipitation. Overall, most areas should pick up some rain on Monday. Perhaps 0.25″-0.50″ (not including the Sunday night and early morning activity…before 7 am).
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Drier weather arrives by Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler air, as well. For those who were tired of the warm weather…well you get a small reprieve. A few degrees cooler on the thermometer.
The latest data is showing a bit more unsettled weather later this week. Mixed ideas as to timing for precipitation chances.
An area of low pressure will move out of Nebraska and into Minnesota on Thursday. A trailing cold front will slowly push eastward into the Missouri Valley. This will bring a return to warmer and more humid air into our region.
The front is then forecast to stall out over our region. If this occurs then scattered shower and thunderstorm chances may be with us for awhile. Locally heavy rain, as well. Hard to not have locally heavy rain in May. Lot of moisture is usually available for cold fronts to work with. You could almost stamp that on any given spring and summer forecast. But, you already know this!
Shower and storm chances may increase as early as Thursday afternoon into Friday.
The stationary front will likely move back north as a warm front over the weekend as another area of low pressure skirts into the central and northern Plains. Another cold front may approach our region by Sunday/Monday.
All of that means unsettled weather with on and off shower and thunderstorm chances. Not much unlike the last few days. Of course timing and the % chance for precipitation will need to be worked out. Still a few days away and plenty of time to work out the details.
The bottom line is that starting Thursday into next Monday we will have at least some chance for additional showers and storms.
Perhaps Tuesday into Thursday morning will be the best time period to expect dry conditions.
Too early to say about severe weather concerns with the next two cold fronts. Monitor updates, as always.
Let’s look at the GFS model for later this week. It actually develops a low much further south than the EC model. It also has a series of fronts near our region right on through the weekend and into next week. Unsettled is the word I use for this pattern. Typical for mid to late May.
Green and yellow = rain and storms.
This is the Thursday night chart. You can see a weak low over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas (the closed circle isobar line). Warm front near our region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This is the map for Friday night and Saturday morning. The blue in Colorado is snow! Low pressure over Missouri with a warm front and cold front near our region. Some storms appear likely Friday into Saturday. Again, still several days out.
This is the chart for Saturday evening.
This is the chart for Sunday night and Monday. Additional rain and storms in the area. Green and yellow = rain and storms.
This is the precipitation chart for Tuesday, May 19th. Green would be rain. Long way off…but you do get the general idea.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
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Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
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Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
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