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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Saturday and Sunday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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May 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 7:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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May 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A sprinkle possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 63° to 66° / South IL 62° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 65° to 68° / NW TN 65° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. An isolated wet roadway.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds before midnight. A widely scattered light shower possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 42° to 44° / South IL 38° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:53 AM
Moonset: 7:59 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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May 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet road possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Just a few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° / SE MO 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:24 AM
Moonset: 8:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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May 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:53 AM
Moonset: 7:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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May 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 7:57 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Some increase in clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 50° to 52° / South IL 50° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:36 AM
Moonset: 10:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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May 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° / SE MO 73° to 76° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet road possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 8:23 AM
Moonset: 11:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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May 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 9:15 AM
Moonset: : PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through May 14th: Severe weather is not anticipated through Friday.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
No significant concerns through Friday.
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Weather Discussion
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- Fairly calm weather.
- Below average temperatures.
- Watching weekend rain chances.
High pressure will dominate our weather over the coming week.
Fast moving upper level disturbances (weak) could produce a few clouds from time to time. There may even be a light shower Wednesday night/Thursday. Nothing to write home about. Rain totals would be less than 0.10″.
Temperatures will average below seasonal averages. In other words, cooler than average. It seems we can’t find warm air that will stick around longer than a day or two.
It will eventually become hot! We all know that. Just a matter of time. Meanwhile, we will just have to enjoy what nature sends out way.
Temperatures will slowly moderate over the late week period into the weekend. Nothing extreme.
Expect mostly 60s this week for highs and 40s for overnight lows. Chilly at night.
I am monitoring a system Saturday and Sunday. Confidence in the details is low, for now. Perhaps an increase in clouds and showers.
Temperature anomaly forecast from the GFS model. Blue is below average temperatures.
Quite a bit of blue and even some purple! Cooler than average this week.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Nothing is showing up on this model. There could be some light sprinkles or light showers Wednesday night into Thursday night.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
Nothing is showing up on this model. There could be some light sprinkles or light showers Wednesday night into Thursday night.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Nothing is showing up on this model. There could be some light sprinkles or light showers Wednesday night into Thursday night.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Nothing is showing up on this model. There could be some light sprinkles or light showers Wednesday night into Thursday night.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers May 10h through May 17th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers May 18th through May 24th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″
This outlook covers May 21st through June 2nd
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature outlook
May precipitation outlook
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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