May 10, 2019: Non-subscriber post

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Friday: No
Saturday: Isolated lightning is possible Saturday and Saturday night.
Sunday: No
Monday: No
Tuesday: No
Wednesday: I am monitoring an incoming cold front. Lightning is possible.
Thursday: I am monitoring an incoming cold front. Lightning is possible.
Friday: No

Wet ground conditions.
Another rain event Saturday and Saturday night.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
Somewhat quieter next week if everything holds. I am watching for light rain Monday and then another cold front Wednesday into Thursday. A few showers and storms with it.

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Friday through Sunday.

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated lightning is possible Saturday and Saturday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally moderate rain on Saturday/Saturday night. I will keep an eye on the totals. Low-end risk of spotty water issues.

Monday through Thursday.

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. I am monitoring Wednesday and Thursday. Uncertainty on the exact timing. Another cold front will push in from the north. Scattered lightning is possible.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Click here

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major adjustments.

What changes might occur in the forecast?

The main question centers around the coverage of rain on Saturday. The rain will start to move into the region as early as Friday night. Saturday will deliver numerous showers to the area. Isolated thunder is possible. Severe weather is not a concern.
Rain totals Friday night into Saturday night. It appears a widespread 0.40″ to 0.80″ of rain will fall. There should be pockets of greater than one inch. The rain predictions over the past four weeks have been hit and miss. It has been a frustrating pattern to forecast. Understatement. Model guidance has handled our weather systems poorly. That makes it difficult when trying to make a sensible forecast.

HERE IS THE COVERAGE LINK

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GREEN IS ON. Red is off.

May 10, 2019
A mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance of a sprinkle. A stray shower possible over western Tennessee later today, as well. Cooler. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. Rain showers developing from the south and southwest. Coverage will increase late at night as our next system approaches.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Winds north and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Slight chance of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:53 PM
Moonrise: 10:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:54 AM

May 11, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. Intervals of rain showers likely. An isolated thunderstorm. Some moderate rain is likely, as well. I am not anticipating severe weather. Clouds and rain will help keep temperatures down.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 80% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Locally heavy downpours. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. An isolated thunderstorm is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 54° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Winds becoming north and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous showers
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates/radars.
Sunset: 7:54 PM
Moonrise: 11:58 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
Moonset: 1:34 AM

May 12, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A few light showers are possible. Most of the rain should be over.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 66° to 68° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A few damp roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5 to 6 moderate to high
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a few light showers possible. Mostly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Patchy fog if sky conditions clear.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 48° to 50° NW TN 46° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 10% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 10% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A few damp roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunset: 7:54 PM
Moonrise: 1:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:18 AM

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Monday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A slight chance of a light shower. High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 40s. North and northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
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Tuesday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. Warmer. High temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 50s. Becoming southerly at 5 to 10 mph.
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Wednesday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. Warmer. Scattered showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Wednesday night. High temperatures in the upper 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Southwest at 7 to 14 mph and gusty.

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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

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Agriculture Forecast

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Friday through next Friday: At this time, severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible Saturday and again on Wednesday into Thursday. I will keep an eye on the mid-week system. It may have some instability to work with.

Let me show you the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlooks.

Numerous value-added severe weather graphics.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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More rain is on the way.
Cooler temperatures into Monday.
Cold from towards the middle of the new work-week.

Current conditions.

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Precipitation

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Rain spread across much of the area Wednesday night and that lingered into Thursday morning (across portions of the region). Thursday afternoon brought a line of thunderstorms across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. It was a thin line. Some gusty winds were reported with a few of the thunderstorms.

The rain was not as widespread Wednesday night and Thursday as anticipated. The reason for this was a large thunderstorm complex across the Gulf of Mexico states. That helped to block moisture flow northward.

This typically happens a few times each year. It throws a monkey-wrench into our local areas forecast. It can event happen in the winter with winter storms.

Morning satellite

Conditions will be dry today. There is a slight chance of sprinkles, but nothing significant. There will be quite a few clouds lingering.

Our rain chances rapidly ramp up tonight and especially on Saturday as a new storm system takes shape to our south and west.

This system is likely to spread widespread rain across the region.

PWAT values will spike on Saturday. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere. Higher numbers mean higher rain totals.

You can see the plume of higher PWAT values spread northward with our storm system.

Scattered showers are possible as early as this evening. Coverage will increase overnight. Coverage will become widespread on Saturday. This system will push into the region from the south and west. Rain will move towards the north and northeast.

A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the rain on Saturday and Saturday night. No severe thunderstorms.

Have a plan B for Saturday.

Rain totals of 0.40″ to 0.80″ are anticipated. A few locations will likely surpass the one-inch mark. Locally heavy downpours are a possibility.

Clouds will linger into Sunday (Mother’s Day). A few light showers will be possible both Sunday and Sunday night. Widespread rain, however, is not in the forecast.

It will be cool today through the weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

The WPC has placed portions of my forecast area in a slight risk of excessive rainfall on Saturday. This simply means that some locally heavy rain is possible. There is a low-end risk of flash flooding.

A weak system will brush the area Sunday night into Monday. Some clouds and sprinkles are possible. Most of the area should remain dry. The rain chances will be higher across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Even there, the rain is not forecast to amount to much.

Temperatures warm on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

That warm-up will signal the next weather change.

A cold front will push into the region from the north on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some showers and thunderstorms are forecast to accompany the cold front. They will push into our region from northwest to southeast.

Highs Tuesday into Thursday should be well into the 70s. Middle to upper 70s are possible on Wednesday.

A warming trend arrives after Thursday.

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This is the NAM model guidance.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

I encourage you to monitor updates each day. There will likely be adjustments on rain probabilities and timing.

Click the animation to enlarge it,

Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.

Timestamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it,

Here is the Hrrr model. This is a high-resolution model used for short-range forecasting.

Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.

This is a longer animation. I just wanted to show you how active this model is. This model goes out to Sunday, May 19th.

Keep in mind, the further out in time you travel the lower confidence in the forecast.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge animations.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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Preliminary summer outlook

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WeatherBrains Episode 693
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Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Office in Memphis, TN. He is a 31-year veteran of the NWS, and worked at offices in west Texas, north Texas, and Phoenix AZ before moving to Memphis. He received his Bachelors Degree in Meteorology from Florida State, and his Masters from the University of Oklahoma. He has focused on severe storms and storm spotter training throughout his career, and has helped develop spotter training materials that were and are used nationwide. Gary Woodall, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s second guest WeatherBrain is a graduating senior from the University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology. She is Oklahoma Weather Labs Director of Operations and a Senior Representative to the OU School of Meteorology Student Affairs Committee. Also, she is Deputy Director of the New Student Mentoring Program and a member of the OU Nightly Weather Team. Leah Hill, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: