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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are the averages.
NOTE – there could be some strong or severe storms over parts of our area later this afternoon and evening. If the new data (this morning) supports that idea then I will update the blog accordingly. I will update at the very top of the page (above here). Main area of concern would be over parts of eastern Missouri and maybe southwest Illinois. Lower than normal confidence on today’s forecast.
Sunday – Quite a few clouds around. Warm and muggy at times. A chance for showers and thunderstorms very early in the morning…then perhaps a lull for quite a bit of the day. Another chance for some storms late in the afternoon or evening hours. Lower than normal confidence on how Sunday unfolds. I would not cancel any plans…much of the day might end up dry. If storms do form then they could be strong. High temperatures in the 80’s with southerly winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B ready to go. Could be some precipitation in the region.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Sunday night – Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely after 11 pm. Lows in the 60’s. South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Some storms could be on the heavy side.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B ready to go. Could be some precipitation in the region.
Monday – Mostly cloudy. A good chance for morning showers and thunderstorms. Then, a chance for afternoon storms (especially eastern counties in southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and parts of western Kentucky). Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Winds from the south at 10-15 mph. Winds becoming west/northwest late in the day.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B ready to go. There will be some precipitation in the region.
Monday night – Evening precipitation evening. Clearing. Cooler and less humid. Lows in the 50’s. West winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Precipitation chances early in the evening. Then dry weather.
Tuesday – Partly sunny and cooler. Less humid. Highs in the 70’s. Northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Chances for storms will linger into Monday
2. Any storms that form on Sunday could be strong…but coverage is questionable
3. Cold front sweeps through the area on Monday. We dry out by late Monday night and Tuesday
The forecast over the last 24-48 hours has pretty much behaved as expected. One complex of storms passed through the area on Saturday morning. It weakened as it moved northeast. Heaviest rainfall totals were over our western and southwestern counties.
Locally heavy storms then formed early Saturday afternoon over parts of southeast Missouri into southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Lightning and heavy downpours were the main problem with these cells.
Here are the rainfall totals, thus far. For those who have not received much…you can see that others have picked up several inches of rain. Click image for larger view. This image is through Saturday 4 pm.
A cold front remains well to our west. This front will push into the region on Monday and Monday afternoon.
The region will be well placed in the warm sector on Sunday. That means very warm temperatures and muggy dew points. There is not much of a trigger for thunderstorms from late morning into early evening. But, if a few storms form then they could produce frequent lightning, strong winds, hail, and heavy rain. The real question is precipitation coverage.
Temperatures could become very warm on Sunday, if the sun remains out. Middle 80’s and perhaps upper 80’s for a few spots. Either way…warm and quite muggy. Summery.
I do believe the best chance of storms from late Sunday morning into Sunday evening will be over eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois. Again, a severe storm is possible.
Very questionable on coverage Sunday.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a few severe storms. Again, the best chance would be southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
The high resolution WRF model shows very little happening on Sunday afternoon. If this is right then it will be quite warm over the region. This is the future-cast radar from WRF (weatherbell.com image). Those small green patches are precipitation. Not much showing up here.
We will see how it goes. Again, lower than normal confidence on Sundays forecast. Believe most areas will remain dry from late morning through the afternoon hours.
Sunday night into Monday morning I am expecting quite a few showers and storms to move into the area. Again, heavy rain and frequent lightning will be possible. A severe thunderstorm can’t be ruled out…especially over southeast Missouri.
Monday…cold front arrives (finally). The front will sweep through the area on Monday morning and afternoon. By Monday night the front will mostly be to our south and east.
Future-cast radar from the WRF model shows a lot of rain in the region Monday morning.
Coverage of storms on Monday will be highly dependent on what happens Sunday night and Monday morning. If we end up with widespread cloud cover on Monday morning then the risk for additional heavy storms will be greatly diminished. Right now the risk for severe storms on Monday is questionable. Again…instability is the key to what happens Monday. Monitor updates, as always…this time of the year.
PWAT values will be quite high over the coming days. Lot of moisture in the atmosphere. Each time we see pooling of higher PWAT values it means the chances for locally heavy rain increase with any storms that form.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Here is the PWAT values ahead of the cold front on Monday (watch how fast they drop off behind the front – second image)
Now check out this image below (Tuesday…behind the front). Behind the cold front we are in northwest wind flow aloft. What happens when winds blow from the northwest? Drier air moves into our region. Most of the time, at least. See the bright colors to our south? That is because they are still in front of the cold front. Moisture pools in advance of cold fronts. You can mentally draw the cold front (the blue area vs the green/yellow area)
Remember, an area of low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. Thus, it pulls up moisture, from the Gulf of Mexico, into our region. When the low pressure passes to our north…we are in the warm sector. Southerly and southwest winds. Warm and moist air. Thus, PWAT values and dew points are higher ahead of the cold front.
Let me show you a graphic of what I just described. This is the Monday morning weather map. Low pressure over Minnesota. The cold front is to our west. Higher PWAT values pooling ahead of the front…then they crash behind the front (drier air arrives).
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Any storms that form through Monday could produce lightning, heavy downpours, gusty winds, and maybe some hail. Best chance for severe weather on Sunday/Sunday night will be over southeast Missouri and parts of southwest Illinois. Monitor updates elsewhere.
Yes, monitor updates if storms form on Sunday. Instability will be high, Wind fields will be weak to medium. There may not be a real trigger for storms. Thus, confidence is low.
If a storm does form then it could become severe. The question will be whether or not many storms will form. The best chance for a severe thunderstorm would be over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois. Monitor updates.
Monday – Cold front arrives. Some additional storms possible. Low confidence on severe weather occurring. Cloud cover may keep instability in check. Thus, the risk for severe weather may be fairly low. We are officially outlined in a risk zone by the Storm Prediction Center. I will continue to monitor and update accordingly.
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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be a reluctant THREE for Sunday and Monday. Isolated severe possible on Sunday. Most areas will remain dry. A few storms could become severe…mainly over southeast Missouri. Monitor updates if storms threaten. Instability will be high on Sunday. A trigger for storms may be lacking. Thus, very low confidence concerning the eventual outcome.
Monday – Questionable on severe weather. Will go with another reluctant TWO/THREE…for now. Again, questionable on whether storms will become severe. Instability may be lacking.
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Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates…a few strong or severe storms not out of the question.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Storms are possible. Maybe a severe thunderstorm or two. Questionable on instability.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Typical for this time of the year, rainfall totals will vary greatly from one county to the next. If you end up under a slow moving thunderstorm then you can expect 1/2″-1″ in a short amount of time. This is the type of pattern where some counties could easily pick up more than 1″ of rain while other nearby counties end up with very little.
Rainfall amounts with the cold front will likely vary. Latest data brings into question just how widespread precipitation will be on Monday. It is possible the best rain chances will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Then the frontal passage might not have as much. Morning cloud cover could put a damper on instability.
Highest rainfall totals will likely continue to be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Then perhaps our far eastern counties on Monday (where instability could be higher towards the afternoon hours). That would be areas like Owensboro down to Hopkinsville. We will see. Still some time to tweak that part of the forecast.
Rainfall forecast (broad-brushed) is through Monday evening. Image is from weatherbell.com Click image for larger view.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
No change from previous update…
We will dry out late Monday night and Tuesday. Some of the data wants to bring moisture back into the region as early as Wednesday. Perhaps Thursday is a better bet for a few storms. This will need to be monitored.
Appears a 20%-40% chance for precipitation will be with us from Thursday into Friday/Saturday. Still a number of days to monitor. Temperatures will be in the 70’s to perhaps lower 80’s during most of next week.
Some indications that rain chances may increase on Friday into the following Monday. But, that is so far out…no confidence. Keep it in mind.
The third week of May there are some signals for increased moisture again. Long way off. Perhaps a boundary near the Missouri and Ohio River Valley. Again, too far off for a forecast. Just watching it.
Slow severe weather continues for much of the nation. Very odd year. Something to be thankful for!
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
