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Today: Scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Some storms could produce hail and high winds. A low tornado risk. Low does not mean zero. It only takes one tornado to cause big problems. Locally heavy rain and lightning, as well.
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Tomorrow: Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday and perhaps Thursday night, as well. Some storms could produce hail and high winds. Let’s keep an eye on Thursday and Thursday night.
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- Wet fields are the main concern over the coming weeks. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms.
- Locally heavy rain over the next 48 hours. Thunderstorms can produce an inch of rain in less than thirty minutes.
- Windy conditions today.
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Today through Friday night.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today, tonight, Thursday, Thursday night, Friday, and Friday night.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Yes. A few storms could become severe today into Thursday. A greater concern arrives on Thursday. The risk today is lower (lower does not mean a zero risk). Hail and high wind will be the main severe concern. There could be isolated tornadoes, as well. Monitor updates, as always.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. There is an low-end flash flood risk. The greatest concern would be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This is where last weeks rain accumulated into the one to three-inch range. Some areas can’t handle heavy rain.
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Saturday through Wednesday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated lightning is possible on Friday. The risk of lightning on Saturday is lower, but not zero. Lightning is possible Monday into Tuesday, as well.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Monitor updates.
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
County Maps: Click Here
Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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Small adjustments to temperatures and rain probabilities. No major shifts.
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May 1, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Some pockets of sunshine. Showers and thunderstorms. If storms form they could be locally intense. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms form.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° West KY 75° to 80° NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 100% Southeast MO 80% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 70% NW TN 100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Some storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Have alternative outdoor plans with some showers in the region.
UV Index: 3 to 6 (depends on clouds) Moderate to high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. If storms do form then a few could be strong. Heavy downpours are possible where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. A few storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Have alternative outdoor plans.
Sunset: 7:45 PM
Moonrise: 4:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:38 PM
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May 2, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible. Some storms could be severe. Some heavy downpours are again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Some storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense. Perhaps a period of numerous showers and storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 8 to 16 mph. Wind becoming southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:46 PM
Moonrise: 5:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:36 PM
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May 3, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 70° to 75° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 75° to 78° NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radars and updates.
UV Index: 3 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms are likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 7:46 PM
Moonrise: 5:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:36 PM
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Saturday: Medium confidence. Cloudy. Showers likely and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Saturday night the rain chances should come to an end. High temperatures in the lower 70s. Low temperatures in the middle 50s. North and northwest wind during the day at 5 to 10 mph. North wind 5 to 10 mph at night. Fog possible if sky conditions clear.
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Sunday: Medium to high confidence. Some morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny. Warm. High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Variable winds. Light.
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Monday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy. A 20% to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Monday and Monday night. Monitor these rain probabilities. They will likely need adjusting as confidence in the final forecast increases. Warm. High temperatures in the upper 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds less than 15 mph. Variable in direction.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
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Wind forecast
Click to enlarge
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
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This will be updated at 8 AM
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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Lightning is possible today into tomorrow. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail over the next 48 hours. The tornado risk is low but definitely not zero. The greatest risk will arrive on Thursday. The risk today is fairly low. It is not a zero risk today. The atmosphere is fairly worked over. If the atmosphere can destabilize then a few storms will form today and even tonight. Monitor updates.
Friday through Monday: Lightning is possible Friday and Saturday and then again on Monday. At this time, severe weather appears unlikely Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. I will monitor Monday’s forecast.
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Numerous value-added severe weather graphics.
Click to enlarge
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com
Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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This map shows precipitation totals.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances over the coming days.
- Saturday is starting to appear to be a wet day.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms next week.
- Active weather pattern.
Current conditions.
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Forecast discussion.
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Today and tomorrow.
First, the May temperature and precipitation outlook has been updated
May temperature and precipitation outlook
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Precipitation
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An outbreak of severe thunderstorms struck Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas yesterday.
There were numerous reports of tornadoes. There were numerous reports of damage. There were also damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding.
Here is a Weather Nation map showing some of the severe reports. Numerous reports are missing from this graphic, as well.
We did have one wind damage report in Ballard County. It seemed to be one report out of the entire region. An odd one. It appears winds were above 50 mph in that area. It was a bowing line of storms.
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Thankfully, as forecast, the line weakened overnight as it pushed into my forecast area. There were a few severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings but no reports of damage in the warned areas.
The same storm system will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Today’s activity will be scattered today. There is an outflow boundary in the area. It is possible that storms refire near this boundary.
This will need to be monitored. Storms could be intense.
Otherwise, scattered showers are likely today.
Clouds may help keep CAPE down. CAPE is energy for storms. If we do have a mix of sun and clouds then the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable. Monitor updates today.
Locally heavy rain is likely with any storms that form over the next couple of days. Torrential downpours can produce an inch of rain in less than 30 minutes.
Avoid flooded roadways.
I will be monitoring the guidance throughout the day. I will send out app/text (try and use the app as it receives the texts instantly) messages if necessary.
The greatest concentration over showers and thunderstorms over the past week has been across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
There will be a shift in the system today into tomorrow. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the rest of the region.
Thursday and Friday
I am closely monitoring Thursday’s weather. The ingredients are coming together for severe thunderstorms. That would include a threat of a tornado. Let’s keep a close eye on the Thursday forecast.
Scattered showers and likely non-severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday and Friday night, as well.
Saturday
Finally, Saturday is starting to appear wetter and wetter. It now appears that a wave of low pressure will move along our stalled front. This will spread widespread rain back into the region Friday night into Saturday afternoon.
Some moderate rain is possible on Saturday. It appears the severe weather risk on Saturday is very low.
Saturday night we will dry out. Sunday will be dry. Sunday continues to be the pick day of the weekend.
We can not shake this wet pattern.
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Heavy rain concerns.
I am concerned that this active pattern may linger into next week and the following week.
Significant flooding of rivers is ongoing over parts of Missouri and Illinois. This pattern will produce increasing flooding concerns along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers (and other rivers, as well).
This seems to be the year of the flood.
Tom Skilling said that the Mississippi River in St Louis, Missouri, has been above flood stage for the longest stretch ever recorded. That is impressive.
Here are the latest WPC/NOAA excessive rainfall outlooks. This shows you where the risk of flash flooding/flooding will be the highest.
Today’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Green is a level one risk of excessive rainfall (flash flooding). Yellow is a level two risk of flash flooding. Red is a level three risk of flash flooding. There are four levels. Four being the highest.
Tomorrow’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Green is a level one risk of excessive rainfall (flash flooding). Green is the lowest level.
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Long Range
Monday through Friday
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday into Friday. It won’t rain all of the time, of course. There will also be time periods when the brunt of the shower and thunderstorm activity focuses on certain portions of my forecast area.
Those finer details will need to be ironed out.
It does appear that we could have rain chances every day next week. Obviously, farmers in much of the region need a break.
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Remember, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Models are going to struggle with this type of pattern.
Small ripples of energy will rise along the stalled boundary. Each can produce showers and thunderstorms.
Timing them can be tricky, at best. Plan on scattered showers and storms over the next few days. Some storms will be locally heavy.
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Here is the WRF-NSSL model guidance.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Models do not handle this pattern all that well.
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Here is the high-resolution Hrrr model guidance.
Time-stamp upper left.
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.Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.
Time-stamp upper left.
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Here is the NAM future-cast radar. NAM is another model. This is the lower resolution version.
Time-stamp upper left.
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Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.
This is a long animation. I just wanted to show you how active this model is.
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos.
I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
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The Ohio Valley video
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Precipitation outlook
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Preliminary summer outlook
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.
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Not receiving app/text messages?
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Tonight’s WeatherBrain features Dr. Harold Brooks from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Dr. Brooks earned his undergraduate degree in physics and mathematics at William Jewell College outside of Kansas City and performed graduate study at Columbia University. Dr. Brooks earned his PhD on thunderstorm modeling at the University of Illinois.
In addition, our second Guest WeatherBrain Dr. Victor Gensini of Northern Illinois University joins us this week. Dr. Gensini earned his Masters Degree on severe thunderstorm climatology, and wrote his dissertation on severe thunderstorms and climate change. His current focus is on sub-seasonal to seasonal variability, and how that drives weather patterns across the United States. Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Differences in severe weather events in Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley
- Future product in-between Watch and Warning to warn residents of manufactured homes?
- National Weather Round-up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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