April 18, 2018
The KPAH WSR-88D Doppler radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Paducah,
KY will be down for a little over three weeks for the repair of a major mechanical component.
An engineering team from the Radar Operations Center (ROC) in Norman, Oklahoma, determined
that the bull gear, the primary gear for turning the radar antenna, has failed. This repair will
require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore
the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed during the next couple of
weeks with the radar returning to service by May 11th.
During the downtime, adjacent NWS supporting radars include:
Springfield, MO (KSGF)
St. Louis, MO (KLSX)
Lincoln, IL (KILX)
Indianapolis, IN (KIND)
Louisville, KY (KLVX)
Evansville, IN (KVWX)
Fort Campbell, KY (KHPX)
Nashville, TN (KOHX)
Memphis, TN (KNQA)
Little Rock, AR (KLZK).
The Paducah, KY WSR-88D is 23 years old and part of a network of 159 operational radars. The
radars are supported by three federal agencies: NOAA National Weather Service, United States
Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration. The Radar Operations Center provides
lifecycle management and support for all WSR-88Ds.
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May 1, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Windy. Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 77 to 84 IL ~ 77 to 82 KY ~ 77 to 82 TN ~ 77 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southwest wind 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 30 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 60 to 63 TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Winds: South 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:43 PM
May 2, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Windy. Quite warm. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest wind 12 to 25 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Odds favor it remaining dry. Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasingly cloudy sky conditions. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A low-end risk of isolated strong thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 7:44 PM
May 3, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance may be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The chances would then increase eastward during the late afternoon and evening. A strong thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 83 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning. A strong thunderstorm possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. A few strong storms possible during the afternoon.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~62 to 65 KY ~ 64 to 66 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be strong. The overall severe weather risk is limited. Monitor updates, as always.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:45 PM
May 4, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms again possible. The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 76 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds: Southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Winds becoming west and northwest late in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds. Clearing overnight. Any remaining rain will exit to the east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 55 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending. None.
Winds: West and northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:46 PM
May 5, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Light and variable
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:47 PM
May 6, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 77 IL ~ 73 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 76 TN ~ 75 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:48 PM
May 7, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Light winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:48 PM
May 8, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset: 7:49 PM
RAIN TOTALS
Click images to enlarge.
WPC/NOAA seven day rain forecast
Most of this falls Thursday into Friday.
Notice, there are differences in all the guidance packages.
GFS model guidance seven-day rain forecast
Canadian model guidance seven-day rain forecast
EC model guidance
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday through Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance of lightning over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois Tuesday night.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: An isolated thunderstorm is possible. There is low confidence on storms forming.
Thursday through Friday night: Thunderstorms are likely to occur Thursday into Friday. A few of the storms could be intense. There is a risk of a few severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates. The main concern will be damaging winds.
Saturday and Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Analog forecasts are showing some signals for thunderstorms in the Central United States over the coming days.
What are analogs?
Here are the analog maps. The colors basically mean thunderstorms are possible and some storms could be intense. The darker the color shading the greater the risk. The largest risk is too our west. Whether this shifts eastward will need to be monitored.
This is 7 AM Tuesday through 7 AM Wednesday
This is 7 AM Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday
You can see the greatest risk of severe will be placed over Kansas and Oklahoma. Lesser risks north and south of that zone.
This last one covers 7 AM Thursday through 7 AM Friday
The risk shifts a bit further to the east. This
This is the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday (below). Perhaps a few severe thunderstorms near our region.
The dark green zone is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5 risk). The yellow zone is the slight risk (level 2 out of 5 risk). One is the lower risk. Five is the highest.
I am sure they will update this map a few times between now and Thursday. The greatest storm coverage will be Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday night.
Overall, the risk of severe weather, at any given location, is rather small. As always, let’s keep an eye on it. Southeast Missouri will have the greatest amount of unstable air to work with and perhaps southwest Illinois.
This one is 7 AM Friday through 7 AM Saturday
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
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Weather Headlines
- Beautiful weather today!
- Only small precipitation chances through Wednesday.
- Rain and storms likely Thursday into Friday. Perhaps centered on Thursday evening into Friday morning.
- A couple of storms could produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, lightning, and small hail.
- Dry weather anticipated Saturday and Sunday.
There shouldn’t be any weather complaints today. A nice day for the region. Highs will top out in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. A well deserved warm spell. Winds today will gust in the 8 to 16 mph range. A few higher gusts possible.
This week will be the warmest week since last fall.
Dry weather through tonight.
Wednesday will be a warm and windy spring day. You can expect highs in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Winds will be gusty from the south at 15 to 25 mph. Boaters use care.
There is a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm forming on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The atmosphere will have a lid on it. We call this a cap. The cap prevents thunderstorms from forming.
Whether that cap will break or not is highly questionable. I left a 10% to 20% of thunderstorms in the Wednesday forecast. If a thunderstorm were to form then it could be intense.
Plan on dry weather through Wednesday. Small precipitation risk.
Our rain chances increase considerably as we move into Thursday afternoon/Thursday night/Friday morning.
A cold front will push through the region. This cold front will bump into the warm and moist air. This will help produce showers and thunderstorms.
Some of the thunderstorms could be heavy. There could be a couple of severe thunderstorms. Overall, the severe weather risk appears fairly low, but not zero. Remember, it only takes one severe thunderstorm to cause problems. I will keep an eye on it. For now, I am not overly concerned.
The NAM is showing quite a bit of CAPE from time to time from Wednesday into Friday. CAPE is energy for thunderstorms. It is not the only ingredient you need for severe weather.
You also have to have lift. We will have lift, especially Thursday evening into Friday.
I did notice the NAM model spiked CAPE Friday afternoon. We will need to monitor that. What happens Friday will be highly dependent on the speed of the cold front. If the front does not pass through the region until Friday afternoon then some additional strong storms could develop. Let’s keep a close eye on it, as always.
Here is the Friday 1 PM CAPE numbers.
Rain and storms will end by Friday afternoon or evening.
Rainfall totals will vary considerably. At one point it appeared we might have widespread heavy rain. It appears the front will be progressive. That should limit the heavier rain totals. A few spots may top an inch of rain. Thunderstorms can double your rain totals, as always.
If thunderstorms were to train over the same area then some locations could also pick up more rain than others. There will be plenty of moisture to work with.
Here is the NAM future-cast radar. The timestamp is located in the upper left.
You get a general idea of when the greatest risk of rain will be. That would be Thursday night/Friday morning.
Some of the guidance keeps most of Friday dry. In other words, it speeds the front up and moves it out of our region rather quickly.
Weekend
That will leave us with a nice weekend. You can expect dry conditions both Saturday and Sunday. Highs will top out in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees. Overnight lows Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night will dip into the 50’s. North and northeast winds Saturday and Sunday in the 6 to 12 mph range. Decent weather for camping or outdoor activities. Enjoy.
A few showers may return to the forecast early next week. I am not tracking any severe thunderstorm threats. Wouldn’t it be nice if our lack of severe weather conditions? We can hope.
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Weather Brains episode number 640
Tonight’s WeatherBrain is the Emergency Response Meteorologist for the National Weather Service Southern Region Headquarters, Jennifer McNatt. Also joining us is Elinor Lutu-McMoore, the Meteorologist in Charge at the NWS office in Pago Pago, American Samoa.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 103 at Thermal, CA, & Death Valley, CA, and 15 at Estcourt Station, ME
- Kevin checks out phased-array radar prototype
- Discussion on issue of differing graphics from different weather agencies
- Gulf coast tornadoes on 4/22
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
