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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday Night – Cloudy. A 50%-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some intense storms possible. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case storms do redevelop.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates because some storms could become severe.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Hail possible. Tornado risk is low, but not zero.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Need a lightning tracker website? Here you go
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% chance. There will likely be some showers and storms on radar, but most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Isolated shower risk.
Is severe weather expected? Small chance for intense storms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near any storms that form.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy and cooler. Patchy fog possible. Small chance for a remaining shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy fog. Wet roadways.
Monday – Partly sunny. A 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Especially southern half of the region.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Some wet roadways possible.
Monday Night – Mostly cloudy. Cool. A shower possible before 8 pm. Perhaps best chance would be near the KY/TN border.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Tuesday – Increasing clouds. A few light showers possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways
Tuesday Night – Decreasing clouds.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Mild. A scattered shower possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Wednesday Night – Some clouds possible. Cool. A shower possible. Mainly over our northeast and eastern counties. That would include southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways.
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Otherwise, none.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 70s
Winds: North at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 70s
Winds: Northeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Thunderstorms possible Saturday evening and night.
- Scattered precipitation chances on Sunday
- The week ahead
The main weather story for the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm chances on Saturday afternoon and night. The atmosphere has become more unstable. Some of the storms that develop, ahead of the cold front, could become severe. I would encourage you to monitor any watches and warnings that might have to be issued. The main concern will be hail and strong winds. The tornado threat is low, but not zero.
The shower and thunderstorm chances should decrease a bit on Sunday. We will still have some precipitation chances on Sunday. Scattered.
The rest of the work week will deliver a mixed bag of weather. Some clouds over the coming days. But, I also suspect we will have sun, as well. Partly cloudy. And, a few light showers can’t be ruled out on Monday and then again on Wednesday night and Thursday.
A system will skirt just to our south on Monday. This could spread some showers back into at least our southern counties. That would include the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Small chances further north.
Another system will dive down from the north on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This could spark some showers. The best chances would be over southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky. And, even those chances look fairly small. No heavy rain is anticipated.
Our next significant storm system should arrive around Sunday and Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front that will move through our local area. Still too early to know if severe weather is a concern.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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There will be a level two risk for severe weather on Saturday afternoon and night.
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Saturday night and Sunday: Thunderstorms are possible. Strong storms can’t be ruled out. Mainly on Saturday night. Hopefully Sunday we will dry out. Monitor updates.
Monday – Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Next Saturday and Sunday: Monitor updates. Storms are again possible next weekend.
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Updated cloud cover each day and any precipitation chances that might arise.
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Thunderstorms are Saturday night. Some could produce strong winds, hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is low, but not zero.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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The best chance for showers and storms will be Saturday night into Sunday morning. Then, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday. There remains some possible shower chances during the upcoming week. But, they don’t appear to be anything significant.
Locally heavy storms on Saturday night and Sunday morning could drop 0.50″-1.00″ of rain.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
