Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Good morning, everyone.

Monday is a travel day for me.  I will be off from work.

We have some clouds in the region this morning.

You can see those on the NOAA satellite.  Sunshine north and south of those clouds.

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The clouds should clear as we move through the day.

It will be cool today.  High temperatures will mostly be in the 50s.

It will be warmer tomorrow into much of the new work week.  Tomorrow’s highs will rise into the 60s.  That will feel nice.

We will see temperatures in the 70s this week!  Especially from Tuesday to Friday.

Friday could even deliver temperatures in the mid to upper 70s!  That will occur ahead of a strong cold front.  Strong southerly winds will push warm, moist air northward.

A weak system will pass through our region on Wednesday and Thursday.  This will bring a few showers and thunderstorms.  The primary concern with thunderstorms is lightning, and a few reports of dime-sized hail.  We are currently not expecting severe weather.

Here is the future-cast radar for the mid-week event.  Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

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A much stronger storm system will develop on Friday and Saturday.  This will be one to watch.

That system will be a blizzard across portions of the plains.  It will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to our region.  We can’t rule out severe weather, but since it is still six days away, confidence in the magnitude of severe weather remains low.

This system has plenty of moisture to work with.  Higher dew points than the last system.  There is more instability than in the previous system.  Very strong wind fields aloft.   That means strong wind shear.  All of those ingredients are a concern when it comes to severe weather.

Here is the GFS model showing the late-week system.

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I can’t rule out severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center/NOAA has already outlined our region for a risk of severe weather on Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

A rather large area.  Extending from Iowa to Texas and Louisiana.  Confidence in severe weather with this event is higher than the last one.  Remember, in the previous event, the SPC had us at risk, as well.  The severe weather during that event was mostly to our south.

Here is the severe weather outlook for the Friday/Saturday event.

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Rainfall amounts from that system could be locally heavy.  Some data slows the front.  If that happens, then rainfall totals will be higher.    Double-click on this image to enlarge it.

Most of this would fall on Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.   That is my current forecast.

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I will be closely monitoring that weekend system.  I will know quite a bit more as we move through the week.

Monitor updates.  Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving severe weather information.

Your Beau Dodson Weather app is one of those ways.

Don’t forget that I have partnered with Weather Call, as well.

They will call your phone when you are in a warning.  This is great for overnight tornado outbreaks.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather