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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Friday night and Saturday morning and again Saturday night.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Possible. Snow is likely Friday and Friday night. Snow totals of 1/2″ to 2″ will be possible.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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March 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Morning clouds. Clearing west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° / South IL 52° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 28° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 36° to 38°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 23° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:05 AM
Moonset: 12:14 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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March 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a late night shower. Turning colder over our northwest counties as a cold front moves through the area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 3 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° / SE MO 28° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 32° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 36° to 38° / NW TN 36° to 38°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:45 AM
Moonset: 1:13 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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March 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: A wide range of temperatures across the region. Keep that in mind. Warmer ahead of the front. Colder behind the front. Mostly cloudy. Turning colder. Windy. A chance of rain or rain/snow showers. Temperatures will fall as the front sweeps eastward across the region. Some locations will have their high temperatures early in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 42° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° / West KY 46° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 54°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Some snow accumulation possible. Monitor the snow portion of the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B as the rain and snow arrives.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Snow likely. Cold. Windy, at times. Bitterly cold wind chill values.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous. Ending west to east.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 18° / SE MO 13° to 16° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 13° to 16° / South IL 14° to 16° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 14° to 18° / West KY 14° to 18° / NW TN 14° to 18°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 11:31 AM
Moonset: 2:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 30° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 32° / South IL 32° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 32° to 35°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 24° / SE MO 20° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 22° / South IL 20° to 24° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 24° / West KY 22° to 24° / NW TN 22° to 24°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:23 PM
Moonset: 3:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 52° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 7:01 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 35° to 38°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:21 PM
Moonset: 4:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 10 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 1 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 35° to 38°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:22 PM
Moonset: 5:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through March 15th: No severe weather concerns.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- A bit warmer today and Thursday.
- Rain and snow likely Friday and Friday night. Some accumulation possible.
- Bitterly cold Friday night/Saturday morning.
- Warming trend Sunday into next week.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
Today and tomorrow.
It will be dry today into Thursday night. A slow warming trend today into Thursday. Highs today will be in the 50s. I can’t rule out some 60s Thursday! It will feel a bit more like spring. That is the good news.
Friday and Saturday.
a brief sharp cold snap will impact the region.
The weather forecast for Friday and Saturday has not changed.
The cold air is a lock. A strong cold front will sweep from northwest to southeast across the region Friday during the day and evening.
Bitterly cold air will follow the front. Gusty winds, as well.
High temperatures may be reached early in the day across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. As the front continues to push eastward, temperatures will fall.
Here is the NAM model temperature forecast as the cold front sweeps across the region.
Western view
The rest of the area.
Notice it is mild ahead of the cold front. This will impact snow totals, as well.
Wind chill values by Saturday morning will likely be in the 0 to 10 above range. Brrr.
Here is the 6 AM wind chill chart from the NAM model. It even shows some below zero readings. Either way, it will be bitterly cold Friday night into Saturday morning. Gusty winds combined with cold temperatures. A good morning to stay inside.
Time stamp at the top is in Zulu time. 12z = 6 am. 18z = 12 pm. 00z = 6 pm.
The big question Friday and Friday night will be precipitation.
There will be precipitation with this event. Most likely rain changing to snow. The bulk of the precipitation will be behind the cold front. Thus, in the colder air.
Strong March sun angle, warm road temperatures, and warm ground conditions will make this a tricky forecast. Will the snow accumulate?
I am watching two pieces of energy. One to our south. One to our north. They phase near us or to our east.
If they were to phase sooner, our snow chances and totals would be higher.
As it stands, they phase just a bit too late for a bigger winter storm event.
You can see those two jet stream streaks/pieces of energy on this map. One of Minnesota and Wisconsin. One over New Mexico and Texas. Yellow and red.
Watch them merge just to our east.
Phasing/merging of the two pieces of energy.
The bulk of the snow will be Friday late morning into afternoon over Missouri and Illinois. It will shift into Kentucky and Tennessee Friday afternoon and Friday night.
Again, it may begin as rain (although it does appear the bulk of this will be snow).
There may be a period of time Friday evening where the entire region has snow chances. Tapering west to east overnight.
See the future-cast radars.
The snow will accumulate faster during the evening and overnight hours. We lose the high sun angle and temperatures will cool faster, as well.
Models showing the probability of 3 inches of more of snow, indicate the odds are greater to our northwest and east.
That leaves us in the middle.
My going forecast will be 1/2″ to 2″. Then, I will monitor trends. The system is still three days away.
The EC model guidance shows the chance of three or more inches of snow. Low chances locally.
The GEFS ensemble forecast. Probability of three or more inches of snow.
It is a tough call on road conditions. Road temperatures will be warm to begin with and cool with time.
I definitely can’t rule out some travel issues.
For planning purposes, you can plan on a solid shot of cold air Friday into the weekend.
I would plan on at some snow Friday into Friday night.
If you have travel plans then keep the above in mind. There may be some issues.
Saturday will be cold. The bulk of the region will likely remain in the 30s. Well below average temperatures.
How many degrees above average?
Double click the images and animations to enlarge them.
This shows you how many degrees below average temperatures will be.
Average highs for this time are the year are between 54 to and 58 degrees.
Dry conditions Saturday through Sunday night.
Another weak system will pass through the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Perhaps a few light showers.
No severe thunderstorms or tornadoes in the forecast.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 9th through March 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers March 16th through March 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 22nd to March 4th
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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