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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a broad-brush of the region. See my detailed hand-typed forecast further down.
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Monday through Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Monday night. Another chance Wednesday. Another chance Friday and Saturday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor. We do have a chance of thunderstorms this week. Lightning is the main concern. I am monitoring the Friday and Saturday system for heavier thunderstorms.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible as we move through the week. The overall flooding risk appears low through Thursday. We need to watch the system that arrives on Friday and Saturday. That system may produce heavier rain totals. There is a higher than normal uncertainties about the specifics with the late week system. Confidence will improve over the coming days.
4. Is ACCUMULATING snow or ice in the forecast? No.
5. Will wind chill values drop below 10 degrees? No.
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March 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
** The NWS radars out of Paducah, Evansville, and Fort Campbell are down. The Nashville tornado cut the fiber lines **
Monday Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing west to east. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 56° to 62° South IL 56° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South wind increasing to 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:14 AM
Sunset: 6:55 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of a thunderstorm. A wide temperature spread from northwest to southeast.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 45° to 52° South IL 46° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South wind at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Moonrise: 7:06 PM
Moonset: 7:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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March 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Morning showers will push off to the east and southeast as the day wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 56° to 62° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West wind becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the day and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3 to 4 moderate
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Sunset: 6:58 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 8:21 PM
Moonset: 8:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Scattered showers. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. We may have rain in the region.
UV Index: 4 moderate
Sunrise: 7:11 AM
Sunset: 6:59 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered early in the evening
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early in the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 9:34 PM
Moonset: 8:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 68° to 70° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph becoming south
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3 moderate
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 7:00 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
Moonrise: 10:47 PM
Moonset: 9:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
UV Index: 2 low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 7:01 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° West KY 38° to 4° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:56 PM
Moonset: 9:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadway. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 3 to 4 moderate
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 10:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 5 moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 36° to 40° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:06 AM
Moonset: 11:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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- Unsettled weather is developing. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms.
- We will need to monitor the chance of some flooding of low-land fields/other.
- No extreme temperatures.
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The agriculture forecast graphic will return in MARCH
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
The icon can mean rain or snow.
Click to enlarge these graphics.
This graphic will return next week
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through March 15th: At this time, the chance of severe weather appears low. I am monitoring the Friday/Saturday system.
Lightning will be possible tonight and again on Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Avoid flooded roadways.
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Weather Discussion
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- An unsettled weather pattern.
- Several chances of showers and thunderstorms.
- The NWS radars out of Paducah, Evansville, and Fort Campbell are down. The Nashville tornado cut the fiber lines.
Rain, rain, rain.
Rain is the main weather story. We have several storm systems to track. Each one of them will deliver rain to the region.
The first system will arrive today. Rain will overspread the region from west to east. This is not a particularly heavy rain event. A widespread 0.40″ to 0.80″ is anticipated today through Tuesday. Locally higher totals are possible.
There may be a few thunderstorms embedded in the rain later this afternoon and especially tonight. There will be a little bit of instability. Not much. Not enough for severe weather.
That is good news.
Scattered rain showers will remain with us on Tuesday. The rain will be ending west to east as we move through the morning hours.
A few spotty showers are possible on Tuesday night.
Another system brings additional rain chances by Wednesday.
Questions begin by Wednesday night and Thursday.
Model guidance is not in agreement concerning the placement of the frontal boundary. The placement of that front is key to what happens with our sensible weather.
If the front stalls further north then we will experience widespread rain Thursday into Saturday. If the front stalls further south then the rain shifts south.
For now, I have rain chances in the forecast. Confidence in the totals is not high. The chance of locally heavy rain and thunderstorms will need to be monitored.
Overall, the pattern over the next seven to fourteen days should be active and unsettled. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms.
The WPC seven-day rainfall numbers are high. This may need adjusting. It will depend on the placement of that frontal boundary.
SHORT and LONG RANGE SNOW OUTLOOK:
No accumulating snow in the charts. The story of our winter.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
This is the high-resolution Hrrr model guidance.
Blue is snow. Purple is sleet. Green is rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This is the high-resolution NAM 3K model guidance.
Blue is snow. Purple is sleet. Green is rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.40″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 9th through March 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.40″
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This outlook covers March 16th through March 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers March 14th through March 27th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the images to enlarge the
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March temperature departures
March precipitation departures
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March through May
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