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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Possible. Friday night and Saturday morning and again Saturday night.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Rain and rain/snow will be possible late Thursday night into Friday night. It is too early to know if accumulating snow will be a concern. Monitor updates.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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March 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of light rain during the afternoon (mostly over our southern counties).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 44° / South IL 44° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 5:56 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. More clouds over the southern half of the region vs north. A chance of light rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (mostly southern half of the region)
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° / SE MO 28° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 36° to 38°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
Moonrise: 9:30 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Morning clouds. Clearing west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° / South IL 52° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 28° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 36° to 38°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 23° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:05 AM
Moonset: 12:14 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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March 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a late night shower. Turning colder over our northwest counties as a cold front moves through the area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 9 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 32° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 38° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:45 AM
Moonset: 1:13 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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March 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Turning colder. Windy. A chance of rain or rain/snow showers. Temperatures will fall as the front sweeps eastward across the region. Some locations will have their high temperatures early in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° / West KY 46° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the snow portion of the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of sleet and snow. Cold. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous. Ending west to east.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 22° / SE MO 15° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 16° / South IL 16° to 20° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 16° to 20° / West KY 16° to 20° / NW TN 16° to 20°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
Moonrise: 11:31 AM
Moonset: 2:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Chilly. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 24° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° / South IL 20° to 24° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 24° / West KY 22° to 25° / NW TN 22° to 25°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:23 PM
Moonset: 3:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Not as cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 52° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 7:01 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 35° to 38°
Winds will be from the: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:21 PM
Moonset: 4:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through March 15th: No severe weather concerns.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Clouds today. Chilly.
- Light rain showers late this afternoon into tonight (mostly the southern half of the region).
- Monitoring a chance of rain and rain/snow Friday/Friday night.
- Cold air this weekend. Brrr.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
There will be quite a few clouds today. It will feel like winter outside. Chilly temperatures. Quite a few degrees below average.
We start off the day 4 to 8 degrees below our seasonal morning temperatures. The clouds will make it feel colder.
How many degrees below average are we this morning?
Keep in mind, it isn’t quite spring, yet. Chilly air is not unusual this time of the year.
A fast moving southern system will bring some light rain to the region late this afternoon and tonight. See the future-cast radars further down in this blog update.
I did increase the probabilities a bit more. The system is a tad further north than it appeared it would be 24 hours ago. Thus, I increased rain chances.
This is mainly a southern system. Rain coverage will be greatest from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Coverage will diminish as you travel further and further north.
Rain totals will mostly be in the 0.01″ to 0.15″ range. Not much. Just a nuisance more than anything.
We dry out Wednesday into Thursday evening. No weather concerns. A slow warming trend. Some locations may hit 60 degrees Thursday! That will feel nice.
Unfortunately, I have bad news for Friday into the weekend. Winter will roar its ugly head.
Two items to watch. The blast of cold air and a chance of snow. Yes, I said the S word.
I am watching two pieces of energy. One to our south. One to our north. Whether they phase or not (join together) is the question. Where do they phase?
When they phase, it produces a larger storm system. If that happens to our east then we won’t receive as much precipitation.
The cold air is a lock. It is going to turn sharply colder Friday into the weekend. As a matter of fact, temperatures may actually fall Friday during the day as the cold front advances through the region.
You can see that on the NAM model. We will have to see just how quickly it sweeps eastward. This gives you a rough idea.
Time stamp at the top is in Zulu time. 12z = 6 am. 18z = 12 pm. 00z = 6 pm.
You can see the mild air ahead of the front and then the rapidly falling temperatures behind the front.
Double click animations and images to enlarge them.
Gusty winds Friday into Saturday, as well. That will mean cold wind chill values. Coat weather.
Now, the next big question is precipitation.
How much precipitation will occur with this event.
It is a strong cold front. It will have some moisture to work with. The bulk of the precipitation will be right along and behind the front.
With the cold air pushing deeper into the area, some of this precipitation will likely be sleet and snow. The question will be how much will it snow? Can it accumulate? Can it cause travel problems.
Models are still all over the place with snow totals. Some of the guidance indicates that a one to three inch snow event is on the table.
This is still four days away. In the weather world, that is eternity. Typically, we don’t have a handle on snow totals until the last 24 to 48 hours.
As you have witnessed over the years, forecasting snow totals in this region is a bit of skill and a bit of luck.
It is too early to make a call on accumulating snow. I do think we see at least snowflakes flying through the air. Whether they stick or not will need to be seen.
I will know more with each passing day.
For planning purposes, you can plan on a solid shot of cold air Friday into the weekend.
I would plan on at least some snow Friday into Friday night. Travel impacts would likely hold off until Friday night (if there are travel impacts).
If you have travel plans then keep the above in mind. There may be some issues.
Dry conditions Saturday through Monday morning.
Another weak system will pass through the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Perhaps a few light showers.
No severe thunderstorms or tornadoes in the forecast. We can all applaud that.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers March 15th through March 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 22nd to March 4th
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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