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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Wednesday night into the weekend.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. For now, no. I am, however, carefully watching rain totals over the coming 7 to 14 days. There may be some bands of heavier rain.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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March 8. 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 65° to 70° South IL 65° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° West KY 65° to 70° NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 5:56 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. Increasing clouds late.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:31 AM
Moonset: 1:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 72° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 15 to 3o mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:22 AM
Moonset: 2:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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A complicated rain forecast is unfolding Wednesday night through the weekend.
The primary concern will be precipitation probabilities at any given point. For now, I have higher chances north of the Ohio River vs south of the Ohio River. I suspect the numbers below will need adjusting as each wave of precipitation passes through the region.
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March 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 65° to 70° South IL 65° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° West KY 65° to 70° NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Coverage will be greater as you travel northward.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (esp north)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
Moonrise: 5:04 AM
Moonset: 3:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% MO Bootheel ~ 30% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 30% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° SE MO 65° to 70° South IL 65° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° West KY 65° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (more north vs south)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% MO Bootheel ~ 40% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 40% NW TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (more north vs south).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
Moonrise: 5:40 AM
Moonset: 4:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% MO Bootheel ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% NW TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% MO Bootheel ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% NW TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
Moonrise: 6:10 AM
Moonset: 5:23 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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March 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% MO Bootheel ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% NW TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 65° SE MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% MO Bootheel ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% NW TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
Moonset: 6:23 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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March 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:04 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through March 10th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Avoid flood roadways.
Monitor river crest forecasts.
Weather Discussion
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- Dry today into Wednesday afternoon.
- Windy, at times.
- Rain chances Wednesday night into the weekend.
Dry weather today into Wednesday afternoon. There will be some gusty winds developing as we move through the coming days. Wind gusts may top 30 mph from time to time.
Peak winds will be Tuesday into Thursday. If you are boating or burning brush then use extra care.
The winds will increase as the barometric pressure gradient tightens. We call these gradient winds. As pressure tightens, wind fields increase.
This will signal a weather change.
The change will be a frontal boundary that will find itself draped across our region Wednesday night into the weekend. This front will basically stall out over our local area.
Rain chances will be greater north of the boundary vs south of the boundary. That will leave forecasters with one primary question. Where will the frontal boundary stall out? That will be key to rain probability numbers.
This may be a bit of a forecast headache. The front, although it will stall, will likely waver a bit north and south (over time). Thus, monitor changeable rain forecast numbers.
Plan on showers, on our local radars, from Wednesday night into Sunday.
Some of the models are showing heavy rain. Others do not.
Let me show you some of the extremes.
WPC/NOAA forecast through Saturday 6 AM.
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WPC/NOAA rainfall totals forecast through Monday 7 AM.
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EC model. Rainfall totals forecast through 12 AM Monday.
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GFS model rainfall forecast totals through Sunday night. Notice that extremely heavy band across Missouri.
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GFS (old version) model rainfall forecast totals through Sunday night.
Notice the old GFS is a tad further north and not nearly as extreme. Let’s keep an eye on trends. We don’t need heavy rain.
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Here is the GFS Mean. Notice the focus is north vs south.
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Here is the EC Mean. Notice the focus is north vs south.
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I will be tweaking the forecast as necessary. Monitor updates.
For now, severe weather appears unlikely. There may be severe weather to our west. Locally, for now, we appear safe from the threat of hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
No rain in the forecast
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 8th through March 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 15th through March 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers March 16th through March 29th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook
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February Precipitation Outlook
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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