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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms today could be intense along the cold front. The threat will end once the front pushes to the east of your location. The primary concern is this morning.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Locally heavy rain along the cold front today. The concerns end once the front pushes east of your location.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Possible. Friday night and Saturday morning and again Saturday night.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Rain and rain/snow will be possible late Thursday night into Friday night. It is too early to know if accumulating snow will be a concern. Data is mixed on the idea. Monitor updates.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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March 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few of the morning thunderstorms could be intense. Rain ending west to east. Cooler. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the day. Ending west to east as the day wears on.
Timing of the rain: Chances will be highest during the morning hours. Tapering west to east as the day wears on.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 42° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 5:55 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 28° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:00 AM
Moonset: 11:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 46° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 5:56 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. More clouds over the southern half of the region vs north. A slight chance of a shower over our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 5% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° / SE MO 28° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways (mainly over our southern counties).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:30 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Morning clouds. Clearing west to east. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the morning hours
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 32° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 36° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:05 AM
Moonset: 12:14 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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March 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 60° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a late night shower. Turning colder over our northwest counties as a cold front moves through the area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 9 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 32° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 38° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:45 AM
Moonset: 1:13 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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March 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Turning sharply colder. Windy. A chance of rain or rain/snow showers. Temperatures will fall as the front sweeps eastward across the region. Some locations will have their high temperatures early in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the snow portion of the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 28°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
Moonrise: 11:31 AM
Moonset: 2:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Chilly. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 38° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 28°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:23 PM
Moonset: 3:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through March 5th: A few storms could be severe this morning. The primary concern will be across portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee. Once the front pushes eastward the risk of any severe weather will end.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Some showers and storm today.
- A few light showers possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.
- Much colder air filters into the region Thursday night and Friday (into the weekend).
- Rain showers possible late Thursday night and Friday.
- Rain may change to sleet and snow Friday/Friday night. Monitor updates.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
It was a long night. I have not slept, yet.
I will keep this brief.
Showers and thunderstorms will push off to the east this morning. Rain will come to an end west to east.
Falling temperatures today with gusty winds.
A couple of showers are possible Tuesday night. Light.
Dry Wednesday into Thursday.
A strong cold front will sweep through the region Thursday night into Friday. This front will bring some rain showers.
The big story with the Friday cold front will be falling temperatures. Gusty winds. Rain will accompany the front.
As the colder air pushes into the region, the rain may change to sleet and snow. This will need to be monitored. Some accumulation is possible.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 7th through March 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers March 14th through March 20th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 18th to March 31st
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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