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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page. Link to those threads CLICK HERE
Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
I will be participating in this year’s Dancing With The Stars in Paducah.
I am looking for donations and sponsorships.
You can buy a table at this link and/or donate (you don’t need to buy a table to donate).
More information at this link. CLICK HERE
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
March 6th through March 13th
Current risk: LOW RISK.
Current confidence level: LOW confidence that there will be tornadoes.
Comments: A few of the storms tonight and Saturday could be strong. A few more strong storms are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. I am a bit more concerned about the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame vs. tonight/tomorrow. Monitor updated forecasts.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. On-and-off lightning chances through next Tuesday. I will monitor next Wednesday.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. POSSIBLE. A few of the storms could be intense late tonight and Saturday. Another chance next Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday.
..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? LOCALIZED. Locally heavy rain is possible in some areas. Some localized issues are possible.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? No.
6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? No.
7. Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
I will keep an eye on Friday night and Saturday. A few strong storms are possible.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
I am monitoring Friday night and Saturday for strong storms. I am monitoring Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
At this time, there are no signals for a high-end severe weather event. Some low-end threats are possible. As always, monitor updates.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- Today will be quite warm. Perhaps the warmest day of the year, thus far.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances into Saturday. Peak chances will be late tonight into Saturday.
- A few storms could be intense. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
- Another round of showers and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Perhaps centered on Tuesday and Tuesday night. I am monitoring that time-frame for a few severe thunderstorms.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
We do have patchy dense fog in the region this morning. Use care in those areas.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be low today. They will increase late tonight and tomorrow. A couple of storms could be strong. The risk of severe weather is low, but not zero.
The primary concern would be gusty winds and nickel-sized hail.
Live radar links
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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These were the 6 am temperatures this morning.
A mild morning.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
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We do push our clocks forward this weekend.
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Today through Sunday
Today will be mostly dry. Just a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
Highs today will rise into the upper 70s and perhaps some 80s! Enjoy. It will be breezy today, as well.
We do have some dense fog in the region. Use care in those areas.
Thunderstorm chances increase late tonight into Saturday morning. The storms could produce locally heavy rain and lightning.
The risk of severe weather today into tomorrow is limited. I can’t completely rule out a few intense storms. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Just a low-end risk.
We will dry out on Saturday night. A few evening showers.
Sunday and Sunday night will be mostly dry across the region. Just a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered storms are possible on Monday and Monday night.
The chance of thunderstorms will increase again on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.
A few of the thunderstorms on Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday could be intense. Monitor updates. We still have several days to monitor that system.
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These graphics show the % chance of rain for each 12-hour period.
The daytime graphics will run from 6 AM to 6 PM.
The nighttime graphics will run from 6 PM to 6 AM.
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Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
Today 6 AM through 6 PM
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Tonight 6 PM to 6 AM
No changes from the last few days. As you can see, this is a complicated forecast for each location in the region for each 12-hour time period. The numbers are going to vary.
Some locations will have high probabilities of rain and some will have lower. The chances will vary based on the placement of the cold front and warm front (at times a stationary front).
Also, see the future-cast radars below.
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Let me show you the Storm Prediction Center’s (NOAA/NWS) severe weather outlooks.
Today’s severe weather outlook.
The light green is where lightning is possible. The dark green is where a few storms could become severe with damaging wind and hail. The risk is mainly for late tonight into Saturday.
A low-end level two risk is represented by the yellow colors.
As you can see, the risk locally is low. Perhaps a bit higher chance as you drive west in the region. Mainly over southeast Missouri and far southwest Illinois.
I am not overly concerned at this point. As always, I will monitor it.
The threat today is minimal.
As always, monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather App.
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Saturday’s severe weather outlook.
The light green is where lightning is possible. The dark green is where a few storms could become severe with damaging wind and hail.
The concern would mainly be the first half of Saturday. I will monitor it. Overall, a low-end risk of severe storms.
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Tuesday’s severe weather outlook.
I will be monitoring the yellow zone next Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday.
This may be a stronger system. No doubt, this graphic will need adjusting between now and then. Again, monitor updates.
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Here are the wind fields for next Tuesday and Tuesday night. These graphics show you the low-level jet stream and the mid-to-upper-level jetstream.
The 850 mb low-level jet perks up Tuesday evening. This will help with wind-shear. One ingredient for severe weather.
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Going a bit higher in the atmosphere, we can see the jet stream in the bright red and yellow. Decent wind energy.
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Here are the 500 mb wind fields. Higher up in the atmosphere.
There is a broad area of decent winds aloft. This will help develop thunderstorms.
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Here is the vort max (energy) map. A low over Texas will help pump warm air into our region.
I will keep an eye on the Tuesday/Wednesday forecast. Storms appear likely. Whether they will be severe will need to be monitored.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)
NAM 3K Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Hrrr model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.
Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson
Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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