March 4th and 5th: Rain chances increasing.

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March 4, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Milder. Some increase in clouds late in the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 yo 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Winds: East and southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:21 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers mainly after 12 AM. Rain chances may arrive earlier over southeast Missouri. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Rain will approach from the west and southwest spreading east and northeast.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late. Coverage will increase even more after 3 AM
Winds: East and southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways late. Slight chance of lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset 5:51 PM

March 5, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Numerous showers. Breezy. A slight chance of thunder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 56 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Winds: East and southeast winds at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Small chance of lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise 6:19 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers early. Rain ending from west to east. Clearing sky conditions overnight. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 33 to 36 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~ 35 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% ending TN ~ 50% ending
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways early
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel outdoor plans, but I would check radars.
Sunset 5:52 PM

March 6, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and breezy. Some increase in clouds late in the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 56 TN ~ 56 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: West at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:18 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear early and then increasing clouds. A 20% of snow or rain showers. The best chances will be across northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 33 to 36 IL ~ 33 to 36 KY ~ 33 to 36 TN ~ 33 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps some scattered rain or snow showers.
Winds: West at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset 5:53 PM

March 7, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Colder. Breezy. A 20% of rain or snow showers early in the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Winds: Northwest winds at 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:16 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 25 to 30 IL ~ 25 to 30 KY ~ 25 to 30 TN ~ 26 to 32
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: North and northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset 5:54 PM

March 8, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Continued chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph and gusty. Winds from the west, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:15 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 25 to 30 IL ~ 25 to 30 KY ~ 25 to 30 TN ~ 26 to 32
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset 5:55 PM

March 9, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 46 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:14 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A 30% of showers after midnight.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset 5:56 PM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today through Sunday afternoon: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Sunday night into Monday: A slight chance of lightning Sunday night. Severe weather is not anticipated. I will monitor Monday for lightning, as well.

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WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

Dry today, but rain chances increase tonight and Monday.
Colder weather is also on the way
Flooding continues in many areas. Avoid flooded roadways.

High confidence today through Tuesday.

Highlights

What has changed over the last 24 hours?

N/A today

Weather Hazards.

Chris Conley took some drone video of the Ohio River at Paducah, Kentucky on Saturday.

The river has crested at Paducah, Kentucky. It will, however, remain high for several more days. A rapid drop is then anticipated as we push into the end of the week.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Forecast Analysis

The wrinkle in the forecast will be another storm system that should arrive either Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. This system will spread rain back into our region.

The good news is that I am not forecasting severe thunderstorms. A can’t rule out a rumble of thunder. Rainfall totals should not be quite as large as recent events. I am forecasting 0.25″ to 0.45″. Monitor updates.

These rain totals will likely not impact the forecasted river crests.

Here is the NAM model guidance future-cast radar. Keep in mind this is a model. Models are for guidance and are not gospel. This is what radar might look like as we push into Sunday afternoon and night.

Green represents rain. Dark green is moderate rain.

Timestamp upper left. This runs from Sunday 3 PM to Monday 12 PM.

Click images to enlarge.

NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast

Click image to enlarge. There is a band of moderate rain totals over parts of Missouri and Illinois. We will have to see if that actually does materialize. Generally, rain totals should be less than 0.50″. Pockets of higher totals possible.

Here are my rainfall probabilities.

What is the % chance of X amount of rain falling?

Colder Weather

The next weather story will be colder air that will push into the region Tuesday night into at least Thursday night.

Temperatures may struggle to get out of the 40’s on both Wednesday and Thursday. Lows Wednesday and Thursday night should dip into the nippy 20’s.

Wednesday morning lows

Wednesday afternoon highs

Thursday 12 PM temperatures

Friday morning lows

An area of low pressure is forecast to push into our region from the north and northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system could trigger some isolated rain or snow showers. No accumulation, if it even occurs.

I considered adding thunderstorms to the forecast with the potential of small hail both Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. The freezing level will be low Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. Ranging somewhere between 3000 and 6000. Some of the guidance does show CAPE values of 50 to 150 Tuesday afternoon.

CAPE is a measure of instability.

This will need to be monitored. Either way, severe weather is not anticipated. If there were to be hail it would likely be pea to dime size. For now, I will mention a slight chance of rain or rain/snow showers, but leave thunderstorms out of the forecast.

I should mention that many guidance packages keep the precipitation entirely out of our local area. That is certainly a possibility.

I am watching additional rain chances towards the weekend, but confidence in the details remains low.

East Coast Storm

A massive storm system struck the East Coast over the last two days. Many areas reported heavy snow, heavy rain, damaging winds, and damaging surf.

Many areas reported 50 to 100 mph wind gusts. Trees were downed across many states. Hundreds of thousands of people were left without power.

There were reports of 40’+ waves along the coastline. Many of you likely saw some of the photographs and video on The Weather Channel or the news.

This system was massive. There is no other word for it.

Just look at this water vapor satellite image. The system covers a large chunk of the Atlantic Ocean.

Here was a visible shot from Saturday. This image is showing you clouds. You can see the large counter-clockwise swirl. That is the area of low pressure and associated fronts.

Richmaond, Virginia wind damage. Thousands of trees were uprooted, broken, or damaged by the high winds.

Massive waves pounded much of the northeast and east coastlines.

This photograph was found on Twitter. Upstate New York. Some areas reported blizzard conditions.

Widespread wind damage was reported with the system. Here are just a few of the areas with wind damage.

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I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos. They have a great team of meteorologists. The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add on in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical

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Weather Brains episode number 632.

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Today’s guest on Weather Brains is Gregory Mandt who has overall responsibility for the JPSS Program. In this role, Mandt oversees the development, acquisition, integration, installation, and acceptance of major system elements (spacecraft, instruments, launch services, and ground systems) for all four JPSS satellites, the first of which was successfully launched in November, 2017, and the NOAA-NASA Suomi NPP satellite.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Extremes: 90 at Titusville, FL, and -12 at Gothic, CO
First tornado deaths in the USA late last week
Relatively mild across much of Lower 48
Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
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