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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
FROST FORECAST:
Tuesday night: No frost
Wednesday night: No frost
Thursday night: No frost
Friday night: Frost possible 40% chance (subject to changes)
Saturday night: Frost possible 50% chance (subject to changes)
Wednesday Night – Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. Windy
Temperatures: Lows from 56 to 64.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph with gusts above 35 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is likely
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. A few storms could be intense.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Heavy downpours. Small hail. Gusty winds.
I will be utilizing the text messaging service to send out Blog, Facebook, and severe weather alerts.
Thursday – Cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms likely early in the day. Locally heavy rain possible. A lull in the rain during the mid morning to early afternoon hours. Thunderstorms redeveloping during the afternoon. Most likely over southern Illinois and western Kentucky/Tennessee. Then, moving east. Some storms could be severe with hail, high winds, and a tornado threat. Monitor watches and warnings if they are issued. Medium confidence in severe weather occurring Thursday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: South/southwest at 10-25 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% before 12 pm and 60% after 12 pm
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain/storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening.
What impact is expected? Lightning possible. Strong storms possible. Locally heavy rain. Hail and high winds. Can’t rule out tornadoes.
Thursday Night – Evening clouds. Remaining showers and thunderstorms ending. Some storms could be intense early in the evening. Then, clearing and cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: West winds at 10 mph. Winds may become northwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 9 pm. We will have to see how fast the front exits. Especially true for our eastern counties.
Coverage of precipitation? Ending during the evening. Perhaps some scattered early on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Possible early in the evening (depending on how fast the cold front sweeps through the area)
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways.
Friday – A few clouds and cooler. 10% chance for a light shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Clear and cold. Frost possible. Frost will depend on wind conditions.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: Light winds from the northwest
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? A chance for frost. Frost conditions will be determined by wind speed. If winds stay up then frost risk decreases.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Warmest over southeast Missouri.
Winds: West winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear and cold. Frost possible. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible.
Sunday – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range. I went a little low on Sunday highs. Data is mixed on whether we go above 60 degrees.
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Mostly clear and not as cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Mostly sunny and mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64 to 68 degree range. Pockets of 70 degrees possible over southeast Missouri.
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Heavy rain potential tonight into Thursday morning
- Isolated severe weather risk tonight
- Greater threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening
- Colder weather this weekend. But, what about frost chances?
A complex weather system is developing over our region. A warm front will be draped over parts of northeast Arkansas into western Kentucky tonight (Wednesday night). This front will be the focus for heavy showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall totals could be quite heavy with this event. There could be some bands of 1.5″-3″ of rain. And, locally higher totals possible before all is said and done.
These bands will occur where thunderstorms train over the same area. Training can cause excessive amounts of rain. These bands are normally 10 to 20 miles wide and over 50-100 miles long. The bands would be aligned from the southwest towards the northeast.
There is a small risk that a few storms could produce hail and high winds tonight. A greater risk develops on Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rain will taper off on Thursday morning. Then, instability is forecast to build tomorrow afternoon. CAPE values may exceed 2000 in our local area. That is plenty of instability for a severe weather threat. Wind fields will also be conducive for severe weather. There will be some turning of height with the winds in the atmosphere. All of this equals the risk for some supercell thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening.
If all of the ingredients come together as forecast then large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado will be possible in our region on Thursday afternoon and evening. The greatest risk will likely be over the eastern half of the region. That would include much of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Southeast Missouri may also have some severe weather, but this will depend on the placement of the cold front tomorrow afternoon. Monitor updates as we move forward.
Here is the current severe weather outlook for Thursday. Slight risk in yellow. That means some reports of severe weather are possible. The orange area is enhanced risk. That means several reports of severe weather are possible.
Colder weather and dry weather is anticipated for Friday into Sunday. Frost is possible Saturday and Sunday morning. But, if winds don’t die down on Friday night then frost will not occur. The best chance for frost on Friday night/Saturday morning might be the northern counties of southeast Missouri into the northern counties of southern Illinois. Perhaps Farmington, MO to Mt Vernon, IL.
Frost and/or a freeze is possible Sunday morning. Monitor updates. Confidence is low.
Let’s look at some graphics
these graphics are future-cast radar images from weatherbell.com
The colors represent precipitation. Yellow and red would be heavier rain and storms. This is guidance and not gospel. That means that I am showing you these to give you a general idea of what to expect.
This first image is for 7 pm this evening.
This next image is for 1 am on Thursday morning. Showers and storms training over our area. Locally heavy rain possible.
This next image is for 7 am on Thursday morning. Locally heavy rain possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
This next image is for 1 pm on Thursday afternoon. A few light showers in our region. But, look at northern Illinois. Line of storms attempting to form along the cold front. The placement of the front is key to what happens on Thursday afternoon and evening.
This next image is for 3-4 pm. You can see a line attempting to form along the cold front. Northern Illinois back into parts of eastern Missouri.
This next image is for Thursday afternoon at 5 pm. You can see the WRF model wants to develop a line of severe thunderstorms across parts of Illinois into Missouri. We will have to see exactly where the cold front is placed in order to determine where storms will form. Keep this in mind. Nothing is set in stone with the placement of the cold front. If it moves faster then everything speeds up.
This image is for Thursday evening at 7 pm. Line of showers and storms across Indiana into Illinois and southeast Missouri. Some of these could be quite intense.
This image is for 10 pm on Thursday evening. Storms still in the area. IF this is model is correct, that is. Models are showing different ideas on the speed of the cold front. If it moves faster then shift all of this east faster.
This image is for Thursday evening at 11 pm to 1 am on Friday morning. You can see the storms have left our local area.
This is a model that is in experimental stage. It shows where tornadoes could occur. The first slide on the upper left. You can see we are in that zone for Thursday. Tornadoes can’t be ruled out IF supercell thunderstorms form.
I will know a lot more on Thursday morning. Just keep this in mind. Severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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There is a level TWO risk for Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
There is a level FOUR risk on Thursday afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather may occur on Thursday afternoon and evening. Monitor updates closely. As always, severe weather forecasting is a bit fickle. Conditions have to come together just right in order to have an event. Lot of severe weather ingredients will be available on Thursday afternoon and evening.
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No major changes.
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Locally heavy rain on Wednesday night into Thursday. Some spots could have very heavy rain totals. This will depend on storms training over the same areas. If storms train then rain totals go up.
Lightning and strong winds with thunderstorms. Isolated severe weather risk on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning across the region.
Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Tornado or severe thunderstorm watches may need to be issued on Thursday. Warnings, as well. A warning means to see shelter immediately.
Watching for frost on Saturday and Sunday morning. Wind speed will determine whether frost is a concern for Saturday morning. If winds stay up then frost risk goes down.
40% chance for frost Saturday morning
50% chance for frost on Sunday morning
30% chance for a freeze on Sunday morning
Yes. Monitor updates concerning
- Heavy rain potential Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon
- Monitor severe weather watches and warnings over the next 24-36 hours
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Widespread rain event underway across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase Wednesday afternoon and night. This will continue into Thursday morning. Training thunderstorms could drop very heavy totals over some of our counties.
Another thunderstorm event is possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Some severe weather possible, as well.
Widespread 0.40″-0.80″ of rain is forecast for the region. With a some bands of 1.5-3″ possible. And, I certainly won’t rule out locally higher totals. If thunderstorms repeatedly train then there could be some problems with large rainfall totals.
Here is a rough idea of rainfall totals. Keep in mind that locally higher totals are likely. This is a guidance map. Not gospel.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
