Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

No significant weather concerns through Tuesday evening.

There is a risk of wildfires today through Tuesday.  Avoid burning leaves, brush, and fields.  There were several large fires over the weekend.

As Smokey the Bear says, Only You Can Prevent Forest Fires,

Gusty winds are likely this week.  Gusts may exceed 30 mph today through Tuesday.

Here are the early morning current conditions.

A mild morning across the region.

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A cold front will approach the region late Tuesday night and on Wednesday.  This front will linger in the region through Saturday night.

It should exit by Sunday morning.  Will it exit fast enough to keep Easter Sunday dry?  That is the question.

On-and-off showers and thunderstorms will be the result of this series of fronts.

Rainfall totals have come down a bit.  The latest data matches my forecast a bit more than the previous days did.

My forecast called for 1 to 2 inches of rain between Wednesday and Sunday morning.

There is an 80% chance of 1 to 2 inches of rain from Wednesday through early Sunday morning.

There is a 30% chance of totals exceeding 2 inches.

We need the rain.  Many areas are dry.

For now, the threat of severe weather looks non-existent through Saturday morning.  I will monitor it, as always.  It is spring, after all.

I am watching Saturday afternoon and Saturday night for a stronger cold front to push across the region.  This front could increase the chance of stronger thunderstorms.  It is still a bit early to know if severe weather will be a concern.  Monitor updates over the coming days.

For now, the risk appears limited.

PWAT values will be high on Saturday.  PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.

So, there is quite a bit of moisture to work with along the front (on Saturday).  That should lead to a widespread shower-and-thunderstorm event on Saturday and Saturday night.   That would be along the cold front.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

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There remain questions about the exact timing of the cold front as it passes through the region on Saturday and Saturday night.

If it slows down, then Easter Sunday will have some showers and thunderstorms, as well.

For now, a lot of the data is a nail-biter in terms of timing.  Perhaps passing through before 6 AM on Sunday.  It is close.

I will know more over the coming days.  For planning purposes, plan on some showers lingering into Easter Sunday.  Then, we will hope for the best.

Either way, the ground is likely to be wet.

Sunday will be cooler behind the cold front.

Here is the EC AI model.  It shows the six-hour rainfall totals from 7 PM Saturday to 1 AM Sunday.  If this holds, then the rain will exit late Saturday night.  Pushing off to the east.  I will be monitoring trends in the guidance.

It will rain west of these totals, as well.  This is JUST showing you the six-hour rainfall totals.

I wanted to show you how close we are to being dry by sunrise Sunday.

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Six-hour rainfall totals from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM Sunday.

As you can see, it is moving off to the east.  We don’t have a lot of room for error if you want Sunday morning to be dry.

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Let me show you a model for Saturday and Sunday’s rain event.

This is the EC model.  You can see the cold front sweeping across the region with showers and gusty thunderstorms.

This is in Zulu time.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

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Let’s take a look at the twelve-hour rainfall probabilities.  What is the % chance of showers and thunderstorms?

Keep in mind, this is a series of systems.  Rain coverage will ebb and flow.  Higher during some twelve-hour periods and lower during some twelve-hour periods.

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Tuesday from 7 PM to 7 AM Wednesday

A bit higher chances north vs south.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

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Wednesday 7 AM to 7 PM

There are some questions about Wednesday’s forecast.  A lot of data has trended a bit lower for Wednedsay’s chances.

For planning purposes, plan on at least scattered showers on Wednesday.

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Wednesday night 7 PM to Thursday 7 AM

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Thursday 7 AM to 7 PM

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Thursday 7 PM to Friday 7 AM

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Friday 7 AM to 7 PM

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Friday night 7 PM to Saturday 7 AM

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Saturday 7 AM to 7 PM

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Saturday night 7 PM to Sunday 7 AM

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Sunday 7 AM to 7 PM

I am hoping these numbers come down (for Sunday).

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I continue to forecast one to two inches of rain between Wednesday and Sunday morning.

A lot of data now matches that idea.

As always, thunderstorms can enhance rain totals in some counties.

Double-click on the graphics to enlarge them.

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Monday through Wednesday of next week should be dry.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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