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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? A chance. There is a chance this afternoon and tonight.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely. The Storm Prediction Center/NOAA is watching northeast Arkansas and western Tennessee. The risk, in my forecast counties, is low.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low-risk for new flooding. A low risk over western Tennessee. Most of our region did not have as much rain over the weekend as areas further south. Still, a few storms could produce locally heavy rain over western Kentucky and Tennessee. Flood risk, outside of already flooded zones, will be low.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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March 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Increasing chances of showers from the south/southwest. Becoming windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% MO Bootheel ~ 50% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% South IL ~ 40% West KY ~ 40% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly PM)
Timing of the rain: Mainly PM. Scattered.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 7:16 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% MO Bootheel ~ 80% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% South IL ~ 60% West KY ~ 70% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given time of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° SE MO 36° to 38° South IL 36° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: South becoming north 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:49 PM
Moonset: 8:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Morning clouds. Then, slowly decreasing clouds. A chance of mainly morning showers. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% South IL ~ 30% West KY ~ 30% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered AM showers
Timing of the rain: Morning showers.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 52° South IL 50° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Frost and freeze conditions.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 26° to 32° South IL 26° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 32° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and freeze.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:04 PM
Moonset: 8:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 31, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 7:18 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Frost and freeze conditions.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 26° to 32° South IL 26° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and freeze.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: :
Moonset: 9:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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April 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 42° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 36° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:18 AM
Moonset: 10:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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April 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:28 AM
Moonset: 11:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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April 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° SE MO 70° to 75° South IL 70° to 75° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 75° West KY 72° to 75° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 7:21 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:29 AM
Moonset: 12:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through April 4th. The risk of severe thunderstorms will be low. A few intense storms are possible this afternoon over Arkansas and Tennessee. This is primarily south of my forecast counties. I will keep an eye on trends. For now, the risk locally for severe storms will be rated zero to low.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Rain chances increasing this afternoon and tonight.
- Rain ends late tonight/tomorrow morning.
- Drier and colder Wednesday into Saturday.
Our well advertised cold front is approaching from the west.
This front will bring cold air pouring into the region tonight and especially tomorrow night and Thursday night.
We will also have clouds to deal with Wednesday, which will make it feel colder.
Frist, we will have to deal with some showers and thunderstorms.
Most of this morning will be dry. Rain chances begin to increase as moisture moves northward this afternoon and evening.
It will be mild today with increasingly gusty wind conditions. Winds may top 30 mph, at times.
The Hrrr model wind gust map for today.
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Precipitable water values will increase today. PWAT values, are a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere. Higher numbers equate to heavier rain.
We could have some downpours tonight, especially in western Kentucky and Tennessee.
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WPC/NOAA rain totals forecast. Once again, a sharp cut-off between lower and higher rain totals. This has been the theme all year.
There is also a low-end threat of excessive rainfall. Higher in Tennessee.
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It is not unusual to have cold air at the end of March. So, there will not be an extreme event. It will be cold. Cold enough for frost and or freeze conditions across the region.
Much of the region experienced frost Monday morning, as well.
So, by the end of this week, it appears three frost events will have occurred! And, some freeze conditions, as well!
The coldest nights will dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s. That would be Wednesday and Thursday night. Some locations may even dip into the middle 20s.
Average high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 64 degrees. The average low temperature is around 42 degrees.
You can see this temperature anomaly animation for the coming days clearly shows the colder air arriving. This shows how many degrees below average temperatures will be.
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Thankfully, we will warm up by the weekend into next week.
A few models show upper 70s to around 80 degrees next Tuesday and Wednesday. Let’s see if that can play out.
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Dry conditions appear likely Wednesday afternoon into next Tuesday.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 30th through April 5th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers April 6th through April 12th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers April 13th through April 26th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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