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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Special Update
Heavy rain and severe weather update:
Issued at 9:30 AM. March 30, 2016
An impressive storm system will cause problems in our region over the next 24-48 hours.
1. Heavy rain likely later this afternoon and tonight. A couple of bands of heavier totals will likely occur with this event. In those bands you can expect 1.5-3″ of rain. Locally higher totals possible.
Everyone else in the region can expect 0.40″-0.80″ of rain between now and Thursday night.
2. Thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight. Most of these storms will remain below severe levels. There is a risk for a few severe storms later this afternoon and tonight over the Poplar Bluff, MO area into the Missouri Bootheel and then into southwest Kentucky and western Tennessee. Large hail and high winds would be the main concern. Tornado risk in those areas will be low, but certainly not zero. Perhaps a greater tornado risk further south and west in Arkansas.
3. A greater risk for severe weather is anticipated for Thursday. Large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, and even a couple of tornadoes will be possible. I encourage everyone to monitor updates. Supercell thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday.
A complex weather system will take shape over the next 12-24 hours.
A warm front is expected to form this afternoon over parts of southeast Missouri into Arkansas and Tennessee. The air will become very unstable south of this front. This will set the stage for thunderstorm development later today and tonight.
The front will remain stationary tonight. Showers and storms will ripple along this front. Moving towards the northeast.
A cold front will push through our region on Thursday. A squall line or a band of supercell thunderstorms should form along this front on Thursday afternoon and evening. These storms could become severe.
Rainfall totals will vary greatly over our region from this event. If training of storms were to occur then some places could have very high rainfall totals. Training is when thunderstorms move over the same area repeatedly. This can cause flash flooding and/or large rainfall totals.
Guidance does suggest just such a band will develop over parts of northeast Arkansas, southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky. How far north this band will be placed will need to be determined as we move forward. Just keep this in mind.
Active 48 hours of weather ahead of us.
My first concern will be the risk for a few severe storms today over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and western Tennessee. Today’s severe weather threat will really depend on where the warm front is placed. Anyone south of the warm front will have a threat for severe thunderstorms.
My next concern will be the threat for severe storms on Thursday afternoon and evening.
Third concern will be the heavy rainfall totals. Someone could easily pick up 1.5-3″ of rain. And, I would not be surprised if locally higher totals occur. This will depend on the training of storms. PWAT values are VERY high with this event. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.
I will be utilizing the text messaging service to send out Blog, Facebook, and severe weather alerts.
FROST FORECAST:
Tuesday night: No frost
Wednesday night: No frost
Thursday night: No frost
Friday night: Frost possible 40% chance (subject to changes)
Saturday night: Frost possible 40% chance (subject to changes)
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Increasingly cloudy. Showers and some thunderstorms possible. Increasing chances late in the day. Otherwise, a few scattered showers during the day. Maybe thunder.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% before noon. Increasing to 50%-60% late in the afternoon/evening.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated before noon. Scattered after 12 pm
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible (mainly late in the day)
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Lightning possible. Wet roadways.
Wednesday Night – Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. Windy
Temperatures: Lows from 56 to 64.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph with gusts above 35 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is likely
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. A few storms could be intense.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Heavy downpours. Small hail. Gusty winds.
I will be utilizing the text messaging service to send out Blog, Facebook, and severe weather alerts.
Thursday – Cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms likely early in the day. Locally heavy rain possible. A lull in the rain during the mid morning to early afternoon hours. Thunderstorms redeveloping during the afternoon. Most likely over southern Illinois and western Kentucky/Tennessee. Then, moving east. Some storms could be severe with hail, high winds, and a tornado threat. Monitor watches and warnings if they are issued. Medium confidence in severe weather occurring Thursday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: South/southwest at 10-25 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% before 12 pm and 60% after 12 pm
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain/storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening.
What impact is expected? Lightning possible. Strong storms possible. Locally heavy rain. Hail and high winds. Can’t rule out tornadoes.
Thursday Night – Evening clouds. Remaining showers and thunderstorms ending. Some storms could be intense early in the evening. Then, clearing and cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: West winds at 10 mph. Winds may become northwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 9 pm. We will have to see how fast the front exits. Especially true for our eastern counties.
Coverage of precipitation? Ending during the evening. Perhaps some scattered early on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Possible early in the evening (depending on how fast the cold front sweeps through the area)
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways.
Friday – A few clouds and cooler. 10% chance for a light shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Winds: West at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Clear and cold. Frost possible. Frost will depend on wind conditions.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? A chance for frost.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear and cold. Frost possible. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: West at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible.
Sunday – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58 to 64 degree range
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Here comes more rain
- Locally heavy rain totals likely with this event. Several inches possible in spots.
- Strong storms possible Wednesday night/Thursday
- Frost on Saturday and Sunday morning? Monitoring trends in the data.
The main weather story will be a slow moving storm system that will arrive on Wednesday. This system has copious amounts of moisture to work with. PWAT values will be 150-200% above normal over portions of the region.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Here are the PWAT anomalies for Wednesday night
The heaviest rain is likely to fall on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Rainfall totals will range from 0.40″-0.80″ across almost all of the region. Then, pockets of 1-3″ likely. The further south you travel the heavier the totals are anticipated to be. Remember, slow moving thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours. This enhances totals.
Some data paints a band of 3-5″ of rain across parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Keep this in mind. If training of thunderstorms does occur then totals could be big.
Some data takes another band of heavier totals across central/northern parts of SE Missouri into parts of southern Illinois. Then another band further south. Something to consider when looking at this map.
The severe weather risk on Wednesday night and Thursday is not zero. But, the severe weather risk is not high, either. Some strong storms are possible. Gusty winds will be the main concern. Perhaps small hail. The tornado risk with this event appears to be very low. Lightning will be a concern for farmers, of course.
I am monitoring Thursday for some strong storms, as well. Perhaps centered over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Here are some future-cast radar images from weatherbell.com and the WRF model guidance. The colors represent showers and thunderstorms.
This first image is for 7 am on Wednesday morning. A few light showers in the area. Not much.
This next image is for 1 pm on Wednesday afternoon. You can see showers and storms increasing from the west. Some heavy rain in the yellow and red colors.
This next image is for 7 pm on Wednesday evening
This next image is for 1 am on Thursday morning
This next image is for 7 am on Thursday morning
We will dry out on Friday – Sunday.
A cold blast of air arrives on Friday night/Saturday morning. Temperatures might dip into the 30s. We will need to monitor this time frame for frost. The GREAT news is that the models have backed way off the frost/freeze potential for Monday morning. At one time the data was showing 20s across our region. Like I said, however, the models don’t do very well with cold air in the long range and then normally back off a bit as we draw closer. That has been the case with this event. But, I will continue to monitor in case data shifts around a bit. I think the core of the cold air will be more to our north and east on Monday morning.
Let’s look at some forecast lows from the GFS guidance for Saturday and Sunday morning. This is when I am concerned about frost.
This first image is for Saturday morning. Thirties in the region.
This next image is for Sunday morning. This particular model has Sunday morning as the colder of the two. But, some debate on this subject. Other data shows lower 40s. Will monitor.
These next images are for temperature anomalies. How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be this weekend.
Normal lows are around 40-42 degrees. You can see that we will be below normal.
This next image is for Sunday morning. Perhaps the coldest of the two mornings?
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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There is a level one risk for Wednesday. A level three risk for Thursday. The risk on Thursday will likely be over our eastern counties. Monitor updates on exact placement of the risk. I suspect SPC will upgrade our region.
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No major changes.
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Locally heavy rain on Wednesday into Thursday. Centered on Wednesday night and Thursday.
Lightning and strong winds with thunderstorms.
Watching for frost on Saturday morning.
Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Thursday. A few strong storms. Lightning will be the main concern for farmers. Gusty winds near heavier storms.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain spreads into the region on Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday. Perhaps the heaviest rain will fall on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This is along a cold front that will sweep into the region from the west.
Rainfall totals could be locally heavy with this event. Widespread 0.40″-0.80″ totals. Pockets of 1-3″ not out of the question. Heaviest totals would be over far southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky. The further south you travel the heavier the totals are expected to be. Remember, thunderstorms can always produce much higher totals than surrounding areas.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
