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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Wednesday Night – Increasingly cloudy. Showers developing. Perhaps a rumble of thunder. Mainly over southeast Missouri. Parts of the area will remain dry overnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before midnight and 60% after midnight. Mainly over southeast Missouri.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered after midnight, but becoming widespread towards morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways late at night will be possible. Maybe scattered reports of lightning.
Thursday – Cloudy. A chance for showers. Rumble of thunder possible over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee. Parts of the area will receive no rainfall. Mostly northern counties in southeast Missouri and much of southern Illinois.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 45-50 degrees.
Winds: South winds becoming northeast at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% north and 60%-70% south
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous showers likely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely. We could see the rain end as light snow or flurries.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways will be possible. Lightning possible.
Thursday Night – An evening shower possible. Very small chance for a flurry.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds becoming northwest at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible early. Rain should be ending.
Friday – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 45-50 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly cloudy. Nice.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 55-60 degrees.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Winds: Winds becoming north at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 56-62 degrees.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Let’s keep a close eye on next weeks weather. It may become active. Monitor updates. Heavy rain event is possible.
The school bus forecast will vary greatly on Tuesday. Best chances for rain in the morning will be over southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois. Best chances in the afternoon will be parts of southern Illinois into Kentucky. Temperatures will vary greatly on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures may drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s behind the cold front. And, expect 50s ahead of the front. Temperatures will fall behind the front from west to east throughout the day. Keep that in mind.
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cold front on Thursday. A few showers
2. Decent weekend on tap for the region
3. Let’s keep a close eye on next weeks weather. Heavy rain event possible.
A cold front will move through the region on Thursday. This system won’t have as much moisture to work with as the previous one. But, a few showers will be possible. Rainfall totals should be light. They will range from no rain at all to perhaps 0.30″-0.50″ southern counties of southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee.
Here are the rainfall probabilities for Thursday. What is the % percent chance for X amount of rain. Fairly light event. There could be a thunderstorm or two mixed in.
We will dry out on Thursday night and Friday. The weekend will be dry, as well. We might have a few showers by Sunday night. Higher chances for rain next week. As a matter of fact, some data shows heavy rain next week and thunderstorms. Let’s keep a close eye on the setup. Still some time before the details come into view.
Temperatures will be mild on Saturday and Sunday. Upper 50s to lower 60s. Whether we can reach middle 60s is still a question mark. One can hope! Spring is in the air. Slowly but surely we are moving towards warmer weather. Of course we are not finished with cold temperatures. But, with each passing week we are closer and closer to putting winter behind us. I know some of you have spring fever. I also know some of you would still like some snow.
The GFS high temperature forecast for Saturday and Sunday. We might end up a little warmer than this. I am hoping for 60s on Sunday.
And Sunday
No snow in the forecast. 🙂
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thursday – The thunderstorm threat level will be ONE. Lightning possible late Wednesday night and Thursday.
Friday – The thunderstorm thread level will be zero
No winter weather of any significance.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday/Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Updated winds and temperatures.
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Monitoring next week for the potential for heavy rain.
No.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Light rain is possible on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 0.00″-0.25″ are possible. A few spots could pick up a bit more than that. Watching March 8th-10th for a heavier rain event.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
