Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

11 AM Update

Morning data is concerning.  Severe weather appears likely Sunday afternoon and night.

Review your severe weather safety plans.

If we have more clouds and precipitation tomorrow morning, then the risk will be lower.  We will need to closely monitor it.

We also have a heavy rain threat this week.  Here is the seven-day rainfall outlook.  Adjustments are likely.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

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We also have a threat of severe weather on Wednesday.

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8:30 AM Update

We have a risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and night.  The primary concern will be 3 PM to 3 AM.  Adjustments in the timing are possible if storms form ahead of the primary line.

The concern will be very large hail, damaging wind, and even a few tornadoes.

Threat matrix.

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There remain some questions about cloud cover and precipitation tomorrow.  If we have more clouds and more showers, then the severe risk will be lower.  This will need to be monitored.

We likely won’t have a handle on the set-up until Sunday morning.

Now is the time to review your severe weather safety plans.  Make sure your safe place is prepared.

This could be an overnight event for some counties.  Keep your keys and wallet near your bed.  Keep your shoes and boots near your bed.  Have a flashlight, as well.

I recommend having helmets in your safe place, as well.  For babies, have an infant car seat.

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Make sure your weather radio is on.  Make sure your devices are charged and not muted.

Here is the latest severe weather outlook.  This will be updated around noon.

A large level three risk blankets our region. The risk levels range from one to five.  Five being the highest risk.

Zoomed in

Tornado risk.  The hatched zone is where a few strong tornadoes will be possible.

Wind outlook.  The hatched area is where winds could top 75 mph.

Hail outlook.  The hatched zone is where golf ball size hail or larger will be possible.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

This is the Hrrr model.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

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