Afternoon update
No changes to the going forecast.
I did mention a few remaining showers before 9 am over our far eastern counties of Kentucky.
On and off rain chances into next Tuesday. See details below.
It will be chilly Saturday, Sunday, and Monday morning.
Saturday morning will deliver upper 30’s to lower 40’s. Many areas will dip into the 30’s Saturday and Sunday night. I can’t rule out snow showers Saturday and Sunday night. Mostly rain, but don’t be surprised if someone reports rain and snow mix.
Sunday morning lows from the EC guidance. Brrr for this time of the year.
Monday morning forecast lows from the EC guidance
he extended outlook remains wet. Here is the 0 to 7-day outlook and the 8 to 14-day outlook.
Here is the 8 to 14-day rain outlook
WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00. Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.
For $3 a month you can receive the following. You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.
- Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone. These are hand typed by Beau. During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
- Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
- Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone. When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
- AWARE emails. These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
- Direct access to Beau via text and email. Your very own personal meteorologist. I work for you!
- Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
- Long-range weather videos
- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
- Monthly outlooks.
- Your subscription also will help support several local charities.
Haven’t you subscribed? Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
March 29, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Flood watch through this afternoon for portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee. A few flooded roads can’t be ruled out. Avoid flooded roadways, as always. Rain likely. Scattered thunderstorms mixed in with the rain. Temperatures may peak during the morning hours and then fall. Warmest temperatures will occur ahead of the cold front. Rain may end across southeast Missouri as the day wears on.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 62 IL ~ 52 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread early and then ending west to east late in the day
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest to west at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunrise 6:44 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Scattered showers possible early over southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 38 to 42 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered early. Ending.
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset 7:14 PM
March 30, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mix of sun and clouds. Patchy drizzle or light rain early today then drying out from west to east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty
Winds: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:43 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Patchy fog. Most likely it will remain dry. I will monitor late-night shower chances over southeast Missouri
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Northwest becoming south overnight at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. I will monitor late-night shower chances. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset 7:15 PM
March 31, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds early and then becoming cloudy. Showers developing from west to east. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Winds: South winds becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars. It likely won’t rain all day.
Sunrise 6:41 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Chilly temperatures. A slight chance the rain will mix with snow over our northern counties. No accumulation.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 35 IL ~ 32 to 35 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps a period of widespread rain
Winds: South winds becoming southwest and eventually north/northwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars
Sunset 7:16 PM
April 1, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy and chilly. A chance of rain showers. A rain and snow mix possible. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 45 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Winds: North and northeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:40 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Scattered showers. A rain and snow mix possible. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunset 7:16 PM
April 2, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Morning showers or rain/snow showers possible. Scattered showers and a thunderstorm possible the rest of the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Northeast to east becoming east and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:38 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 50 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Some data shows widespread rain developing.
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset 7:17 PM
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Thursday through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible today and again Monday/Monday night. Locally heavy rain could cause some flooded roadways.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
- Widespread rain today. Rain ends west to east later this afternoon. Turning colder.
- Rain chances increase again over the weekend into early next week.
- The April and May temperature outlooks have been updated (further down in this blog update)
- The April, May, and June temperature and precipitation outlook has also been updated.
- WeatherBrains has been updated (bottom of this page)
- In case you missed it! Here is the Facebook thread with some exciting new announcements concerning Weather Talk. Click here to read that.
Don’t forget to utilize the local city interactive radars.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
FORECAST
I hate to tell you, but more of the same weather is on the way. It will also be turning colder. Don’t hate the messenger!
Check out the GFS model temperature anomaly forecast. This animation will show you how many degrees above or below normal temperatures will be through April 5th. Normal high temperatures are around 65 degrees and normal low temperatures are around 42 degrees.
Lot of blue on that map. That means colder than normal.
The timestamp is located in the upper left-hand portion of the animation.
Red is above normal. Blue is below normal temperatures.
Widespread rain today. It will be turning colder from west to east as a cold front slowly moves through the region.
Rain totals today could be moderate to heavy in spots. Some areas will top an inch. A few lightning strikes are also a possibility.
We will see the precipitation diminish late this afternoon and especially tonight. Fog could be an issue overnight. Use care if fog develops.
Friday, at this time, appears mostly dry. Let’s not jinx it! A couple of models show isolated showers across southeast Missouri after 4 PM. For now, I kept it dry.
It has been a wet month (you know that already).
Here are the radar estimated rain totals over the past 24 hours.
The past seven days (what has already fallen)
Month to date rainfall (what has fallen according to radar)
The precipitation outlook from now through the end of April is wetter than normal. Green on this map is above normal precipitation.
WEEKEND:
Rain returns as early as Friday night into the weekend. A few models show scattered showers over southeast Missouri late Friday afternoon. I will keep an eye on this.
The peak of the weekend rain chances will likely be late Saturday afternoon and night and then Sunday night.
I can’t completely rule out some snow mixed in with the rain Saturday night and Sunday night. It is unlikely that this will cause any issues. This will most likely be across northern sections of southeast Missouri and northern sections of southern Illinois. Even there, the chances are marginal.
It will be quite chilly both Saturday and Sunday night. Sunday night likely the coldest of the two. Some areas could dip into the upper 20’s and lower 30’s Sunday night. Spring, where are you?
Let’s take a look at the future-cast NAM and GFS radars. These animations show you what radar might look like (it is a model so it is not perfect). Take the general idea from these animations.
Notice the Saturday night rain comes in a band moving in from the northwest and traveling southeast.
NAM Model Future-cast Radar Animation
The timestamp is in the upper left portion of the animation
And here is the GFS (another model). This one will take us into early next week. Several chances of rain, as you can see. Not what we need or want.
The timestamp is in the upper left portion of the graphic.
Gusty winds are possible Saturday, as well.
Forecast rain totals from the WPC from now through the next 48 hours.
(Don’t add these four graphics together. They are just different time spans)
This next one is now through Tuesday
This next one is now through next Thursday morning
A series of rain events. We can’t catch a break.
The good news is that I am not tracking any severe weather outbreaks. It could always be worse.
The latest April temperature outlook is cooler than normal (see the graphic further down).
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Weather Brains episode number 636
Joining us from Canada to talk about weather folklore is Cindy Day. Cindy began her career at CFRA radio based in Ottawa where she was the host of Ottawa AM program. Then she is known for starting, Weather by Day, her own business in which she provided seasonal forecasts, radio reports and climate data for Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec. Cindy has worked for CTV Atlantic from September, 2007, to December, 2017. She appeared on CTV News at 5, CTV News at 6 and the Late News at 11:30 p.m. Her exceptional work made her win a lot of fans and friends.
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
This show features a full house of storm chasing legends. This includes Jeff Piotrowski and Tim Marshall.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 102 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and -7 at Estcourt Station, ME
- Severe weather in Texas today and Tuesday
- Spreading toward the Texas Coast and into Lower Mississippi River Valley Wed.
- Southeast US got wedged today
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
.
ANNOUNCEMENT!
I am working on a few new items for us.
As always, I am grateful for all of you and the support you bring to my passion.
There was never a plan.
All of this started with a severe weather email list of ten or twenty people after the killer 2003 tornadoes. That grew to what you see today.
From that tornado, the Shadow Angel Foundation was born. We delivered hundreds of teddy bears to Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties. The “storm” bears went to Head Start, Kindergarten, and first graders. Included with the bears was a package of information for parents on how to talk to their child about tornadoes and severe weather.
We then worked with the Metropolis Planet on producing the Terror in the Night tornado book. The book was filled with personal accounts of that horrible night. Many people said the book helped bring closure.
Since then we have delivered thousands of teddy bears to Child Watch and Pasac. The counselors use the teddy bears to help the children feel safe.
Soon after that, the late Kent King (radio DJ and emergency manager) asked me to cover weather for McCracken County OEM/DES. I was COM 10 on the scanner feeds.
Ed Duff, with McCracken County Rescue, now utilizes my services during severe weather events along with two other local counties. They receive one on one attention during events.
That led me to Sue Henry with the American Red Cross where I was able to help during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. An experience that changed my life.
Around that time social media exploded onto the scene. My personal Facebook page quickly filled up with 5000 people. The limit Facebook allows for personal pages.
Facebook then started pages. I was able to make a page just for weather.
It was soon after that that I bought a portion of my family farm back. We built my house and the Weather Observatory.
Jason Darnall helped put together an amazing weather center. Many hours of work.
Then the Paducah Sun then asked me to do weather for them.
That led to the amazing team at Innovations Branding House. They produced my Weather Observatory website.
About four years ago there was a falling out with some local meteorologists. It bothered me so much that I almost quit weather.
The Paducah Sun even ran a story that I was taking a break from weather. I was taking a year off.
Several other local meteorologists then came to me and told me to brush it off. They encouraged me to start a weather business. They explained what I could bring to the local weather table.
Soon after that, as fate would have it, Preston Ursini and the Fire Horn team asked me to think about producing text messages during severe weather. That led to Weather Talk. That then led to the Weather Talk app.
Had it not been for that low point, I don’t think Weather Talk would have ever come to be. Life is funny like that. Something bad turned into something good.
I often times tell people that I have the best Facebook friends, enthusiasts, and followers. It is rare that someone complains on the weather page.
Some of you have basically become like family to me. When severe weather strikes it becomes personal to both you and me.
Here is what we are going to bring you.
1. We are coming out with a major app update for subscribers. We plan on having radar in the app, as well as your usual app/text messages to the daily blog, video, and Facebook updates.
2. We are completely revamping the WeatherTalk website. Preston Ursini, from The Fire Horn, is working alongside Innovations Branding House to complete this task. The Fire Horn is who I partner with to make all of this work.
3. I am going to try and stick to a daily schedule. That way everyone knows when to expect an update. See the comment section.
4. Many of you have asked me to do Facebook Live video updates during winter storms and severe weather outbreaks. I have spent the last week learning how to use OBS studio software. This software will allow me to deliver you Facebook Live events. You will get your wish.
5. We are moving towards a flat subscription fee of $5 a month. Everyone that is paying $3 a month will be grandfathered in. If you want to voluntarily upgrade to the $5 plan then that would be great. We will roll this out when the new website is finished.
Right now we have a $3, $5, and $10 plan. The only difference is how many cell phone numbers you can add.
With the $5 a month plan we will let everyone have up to seven phone numbers. That should cover your family members. Sound good?
6. I have streamlined the digital media blog. That would be the talk.weathertalk.com site. You will find that is has been organized.
Remember, I work for you. I don’t work for television or radio. I am your employee.
You have a personal meteorologist. And, as everyone knows, I put my heart and soul into this.
Subscribers will receive the following:
You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
1. The app/text updates during tornado outbreaks and all other weather events.
2. Rapid-fire tornado app/text messages. I send out numerous updates as I track the tornado. Some of you can testify to these rapid-fire tornado messages.
3. Daily weather forecast sent to your app/text.
4. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on non-severe weather days. Instead of waiting around for me to post a new Facebook thread you can receive it in your app/text.
5. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on severe weather or winter storm days.
6. We are updating the weather map page on the website. That page will have thousands of daily weather maps for you to access.
7. I answer every email you send. I try to answer every private message you send to me.
8. We run three hour live feeds during severe weather where we attempt to answer as many questions as possible. Same for winter storms.
9. You receive access to special short and long-range video updates from the Bamwx team (who help me with daily videos).
10. You receive access to special short, long-range, and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
11. Your subscription fee helps six local charities (see comment section for more information).
Normal monthly out of pocket operating costs (see comment section) are around $2000.00.
The service I provide is unique. I don’t believe there is anything else like it in the country. Not for this price and not for the volume of information you receive.
We hope to have the new app and website finished soon. Watch for announcements.
New schedule
Example of some of my rapid-fire tornado app/text messages.
Make sure you have app/text notification ONE turned on. This one is called WeatherOne. You can make sure that is on by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account and clicking the personal notification settings tab. Make sure WeatherOne is on (green). Green is on. Red is off.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
