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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Monday Night – Mostly clear. Crisp. Frost possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s to lower 40s
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None. Light frost possible.
Tuesday – Sunny. Pleasant day. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Increasingly cloudy. Showers and some thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%. Rain chances increasing through the day.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Lightning possible. Wet roadways.
Wednesday Night – A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Severe weather is unlikely. But, a few strong storms can’t be ruled out.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Thursday – Cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms likely early in the day. Right now it appears showers and storms will end from west to east through the day. If the front slows down then storm chances will linger longer. Monitor updates. A few strong storms can’t be ruled out.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: South/southwest at 10-25 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Lightning possible. Strong storms possible.
Thursday Night – Evening clouds. Remaining showers ending.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: West winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Ending during the evening. Perhaps some scattered early on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways.
Friday – A few clouds and cooler. 10% chance for a light shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Winds: West at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Clear and cold. Frost possible. Frost will depend on wind conditions.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? A chance for frost.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s
Winds: West winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: West at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Southwest at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Calm Tuesday and Tuesday night
- Rain chances increase by Wednesday and Thursday. Strong storms on Thursday?
- Cooler Friday and Saturday
- Cold shot next Sunday night/Monday?
I hope everyone had a nice Easter weekend and Monday. It was busy for the weatherman. We did have quite a few reports of hail on Sunday afternoon and evening. There were also two reports of possible tornadoes. Both of those tornado reports were from Christian County, Kentucky. Some damage to homes and barns. If you received my text messages then you probably received about 10 messages during the tornado event.
Calmer weather was the general rule for Monday. We did have cold temperatures during the morning hours. Widespread 30s and lower 40s. Crisp.
Calm weather will continue into Monday night, Tuesday, and Tuesday night. Expect chilly 30s on Monday night over much of the region. A light frost will once again be possible. Highs by Tuesday will reach into the 60s. Not too bad for this time of the year. April is fast approaching!
A storm system will approach our region from the southwest/west on Wednesday and Thursday. This system will spread another chance for showers and thunderstorms back into our local area. Showers increase on Wednesday morning. Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday afternoon and night. A few heavy downpours possible. Lightning, of course.
Some strong storms are possible on Wednesday night into Thursday evening. I can’t rule out severe weather. This is still a question mark.
CAPE numbers are quite high on Thursday. If this is true then severe weather will be a concern. CAPE is available energy for storms.
Let me show you some WRF guidance for Wednesday. This is the future-cast radar. You can see some showers and storms dotting our area. A more widespread rain/storm event will occur Wednesday night and Thursday.
Here is the future-cast radar at 7 am
Then here is the 1 pm shot (below). Some scattered showers and storms in the region.
Then 7 pm
A cold front sweeps through our region on Thursday and Thursday afternoon. This will usher in cooler weather for Friday and Saturday. Perhaps another frost/freeze situation by Saturday morning. Still a bit early to know for sure.
The models have backed off the cold for next Sunday night and Monday morning. Showing mostly upper 30s and lower 40s. Sometimes the models go too cold in the long range. Then back off. I will continue to monitor. Hopefully this will be the case. But, still some time left for adjustments. We can handle 30s. We do not want 20s. At one time the models were showing lower to middle 20s. That would be devastating to the orchard crops. Let’s hope for the best.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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The risk for severe thunderstorms will be zero on Monday night into Tuesday night.
There is a level one risk for Wednesday into Thursday. I may need to raise the risk on Thursday. Stay tuned.
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No major changes in this update.
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No major concerns in the short term.
No concerns for the next 48 hours. Lightning possible on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain chances increase on Wednesday and Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms return to the picture. Rainfall totals will vary across the region. As is normally the case. Thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals.
Here is the latest broad-brushed outlook from the WPC. Heavier south vs north. I am sure this map will shift around a bit over the coming days. But, you get the general idea.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
