I adjusted temperatures tonight and tomorrow. I also added a mention of falling temperatures Thursday. Widespread rain is anticipated tonight and Thursday. I can’t rule out a few lightning strikes, but severe weather is not anticipated.
Temperatures Thursday may peak during the morning hours and then fall during the late morning and afternoon as a cold front sweeps through the region.
Here is the NAM future-cast temperatures. The timestamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.
Future-cast radar. The NAM guidance shows a lot of rain in the region tonight and tomorrow. Some of the other guidance shows a bit less. Either way, plan on rain tonight and Thursday.
There will be a wide range of rain totals. Locally heavy rain is a possibility. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
Here is the NAM rainfall forecast
The EC model rainfall forecast
The GFS model rainfall forecast
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
And finally, here is the NWS out of Paducah, Kentucky, rainfall forecast.
You get a general idea of what to expect over the next 24 hours. There will be bands of heavier rain totals.
WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00. Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.
For $3 a month you can receive the following. You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.
- Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone. These are hand typed by Beau. During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
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- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
- Monthly outlooks.
- Your subscription also will help support several local charities.
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Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
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Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
March 28, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly cloudy. Widespread rain over the Bootheel into Kentucky/Tennessee. Rain will be more scattered over the rest of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Another wave of rain should arrive and overspread the area as we move into the late afternoon hours and tonight. Some moderate downpours likely. Flood watch extends from the Bootheel into Kentucky/Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% Bootheel and 50% elsewhere IL ~ 40% northern counties and 60% far southern counties KY ~ 80% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread over the Missouri Bootheel, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Scattered elsewhere.
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B in mind.
Sunrise 6:45 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Mild. Scattered showers becoming widespread rain. Moderate downpours possible. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 48 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56 temperatures may rise late tonight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Winds: Variable 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Fog. Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset 7:13 PM
March 29, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Showers likely. Temperatures may peak during the morning hours and then fall. Warmest temperatures will occur ahead of the cold front. Rain may end across southeast Missouri as the day wears on.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 62 IL ~ 52 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread early and then ending west to east late in the day
Winds: East and southeast wind becoming variable at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunrise 6:44 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Scattered showers possible early over southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered early. Ending.
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset 7:14 PM
March 30, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Partly cloudy. Most likely dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Winds: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:43 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower late. Increasing clouds overnight.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Variable at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset 7:15 PM
March 31, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Showers developing from west to east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South winds becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise 6:41 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Chilly temperatures. A slight chance the rain will mix with snow over our northern counties. No accumulation.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 44 IL ~ 35 to 42 KY ~ 38 to 42 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Winds: South winds becoming southwest and eventually north/northwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset 7:16 PM
April 1, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North and northeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:40 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Scattered showers. A rain and snow mix possible over our northern counties. Colder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~ 36 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunset 7:16 PM
April 2, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and a thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 54 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North and northeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:38 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 43 to 46 TN ~ 43 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset 7:17 PM
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Locally heavy rain is possible over the coming days.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
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The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
- More of the same. Clouds and rain chances.
- Locally moderate to heavy rain possible, at times.
- Avoid flooded roadways.
- Colder this weekend.
- WeatherBrains has been updated. Towards the bottom of the page.
- In case you missed it! Here is the Facebook thread with some exciting new announcements concerning Weather Talk. Click here to read that.
Highlights
What has changed over the last 24 hours?
Weather Hazards.
Don’t forget to utilize the local city interactive radars.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
Have we just given up on nice weather? At this point, I am starting to wonder if the sustained warm weather will ever arrive. Not to mention a break from the rain.
We all know it will happen. It is just a matter of when.
The last few weeks have been chilly. We have managed a few mild days, but it seems the cooler days have outnumbered those nice ones.
Then there is the rain. Wave after wave of rain since February. Seems like a record player skip skip skip skipping.
I do not have good news. Rain is going to continue on and off into Sunday.
There will be a difference in rain coverage today from Farmington, Missouri, to Murray, Kentucky. Less coverage towards Farmington and more coverage towards Murray.
There is now a flood watch for portions of the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky. This watch will be in effect through Thursday.
Rain totals will likely not be crazy high. There will be pockets of one to two inches. Localized amounts of greater than two inches possible.
Here are the 24-hour rainfall totals, thus far. This is what radar estimates have fallen.
Click to enlarge.
Here is the flood watch zone in green.
The rain will come in waves over the next 48 hours.
Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM guidance.
Keep in mind, this is a model. It won’t be exact. Take the general idea from this animation.
The timestamp is located in the upper left corner of the graphic.
Let’s look at one of the long-range models. This is the GFS model guidance. This takes us into next week.
Sorry to tell you, the unsettled weather will continue and colder air is on the way, as well.
Double whammy.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Blue is snow. Pink is mixed precip.
Notice another wave on Thursday.
This model shows rain on Friday, but there is some debate on that. Lower confidence in Friday’s forecast.
Rain chances should increase over the weekend, again.
The timestamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.
Colder air arrives Saturday into Sunday. Lows Saturday and Sunday night may dip into the 30’s. Some of the guidance does show a rain and snow mix over our northern counties this weekend. No accumulation. It will just remind us that temperatures are chilly.
Let’s take a look at rain totals via the WPC/NOAA forecast map.
The first graphic is the 48-hour rainfall map. The second graphic is the seven-day rainfall map.
and the seven day
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Weather Brains episode number 636
Joining us from Canada to talk about weather folklore is Cindy Day. Cindy began her career at CFRA radio based in Ottawa where she was the host of Ottawa AM program. Then she is known for starting, Weather by Day, her own business in which she provided seasonal forecasts, radio reports and climate data for Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec. Cindy has worked for CTV Atlantic from September, 2007, to December, 2017. She appeared on CTV News at 5, CTV News at 6 and the Late News at 11:30 p.m. Her exceptional work made her win a lot of fans and friends.
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
This show features a full house of storm chasing legends. This includes Jeff Piotrowski and Tim Marshall.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 102 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and -7 at Estcourt Station, ME
- Severe weather in Texas today and Tuesday
- Spreading toward the Texas Coast and into Lower Mississippi River Valley Wed.
- Southeast US got wedged today
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
.
ANNOUNCEMENT!
I am working on a few new items for us.
As always, I am grateful for all of you and the support you bring to my passion.
There was never a plan.
All of this started with a severe weather email list of ten or twenty people after the killer 2003 tornadoes. That grew to what you see today.
From that tornado, the Shadow Angel Foundation was born. We delivered hundreds of teddy bears to Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties. The “storm” bears went to Head Start, Kindergarten, and first graders. Included with the bears was a package of information for parents on how to talk to their child about tornadoes and severe weather.
We then worked with the Metropolis Planet on producing the Terror in the Night tornado book. The book was filled with personal accounts of that horrible night. Many people said the book helped bring closure.
Since then we have delivered thousands of teddy bears to Child Watch and Pasac. The counselors use the teddy bears to help the children feel safe.
Soon after that, the late Kent King (radio DJ and emergency manager) asked me to cover weather for McCracken County OEM/DES. I was COM 10 on the scanner feeds.
Ed Duff, with McCracken County Rescue, now utilizes my services during severe weather events along with two other local counties. They receive one on one attention during events.
That led me to Sue Henry with the American Red Cross where I was able to help during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. An experience that changed my life.
Around that time social media exploded onto the scene. My personal Facebook page quickly filled up with 5000 people. The limit Facebook allows for personal pages.
Facebook then started pages. I was able to make a page just for weather.
It was soon after that that I bought a portion of my family farm back. We built my house and the Weather Observatory.
Jason Darnall helped put together an amazing weather center. Many hours of work.
Then the Paducah Sun then asked me to do weather for them.
That led to the amazing team at Innovations Branding House. They produced my Weather Observatory website.
About four years ago there was a falling out with some local meteorologists. It bothered me so much that I almost quit weather.
The Paducah Sun even ran a story that I was taking a break from weather. I was taking a year off.
Several other local meteorologists then came to me and told me to brush it off. They encouraged me to start a weather business. They explained what I could bring to the local weather table.
Soon after that, as fate would have it, Preston Ursini and the Fire Horn team asked me to think about producing text messages during severe weather. That led to Weather Talk. That then led to the Weather Talk app.
Had it not been for that low point, I don’t think Weather Talk would have ever come to be. Life is funny like that. Something bad turned into something good.
I often times tell people that I have the best Facebook friends, enthusiasts, and followers. It is rare that someone complains on the weather page.
Some of you have basically become like family to me. When severe weather strikes it becomes personal to both you and me.
Here is what we are going to bring you.
1. We are coming out with a major app update for subscribers. We plan on having radar in the app, as well as your usual app/text messages to the daily blog, video, and Facebook updates.
2. We are completely revamping the WeatherTalk website. Preston Ursini, from The Fire Horn, is working alongside Innovations Branding House to complete this task. The Fire Horn is who I partner with to make all of this work.
3. I am going to try and stick to a daily schedule. That way everyone knows when to expect an update. See the comment section.
4. Many of you have asked me to do Facebook Live video updates during winter storms and severe weather outbreaks. I have spent the last week learning how to use OBS studio software. This software will allow me to deliver you Facebook Live events. You will get your wish.
5. We are moving towards a flat subscription fee of $5 a month. Everyone that is paying $3 a month will be grandfathered in. If you want to voluntarily upgrade to the $5 plan then that would be great. We will roll this out when the new website is finished.
Right now we have a $3, $5, and $10 plan. The only difference is how many cell phone numbers you can add.
With the $5 a month plan we will let everyone have up to seven phone numbers. That should cover your family members. Sound good?
6. I have streamlined the digital media blog. That would be the talk.weathertalk.com site. You will find that is has been organized.
Remember, I work for you. I don’t work for television or radio. I am your employee.
You have a personal meteorologist. And, as everyone knows, I put my heart and soul into this.
Subscribers will receive the following:
You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
1. The app/text updates during tornado outbreaks and all other weather events.
2. Rapid-fire tornado app/text messages. I send out numerous updates as I track the tornado. Some of you can testify to these rapid-fire tornado messages.
3. Daily weather forecast sent to your app/text.
4. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on non-severe weather days. Instead of waiting around for me to post a new Facebook thread you can receive it in your app/text.
5. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on severe weather or winter storm days.
6. We are updating the weather map page on the website. That page will have thousands of daily weather maps for you to access.
7. I answer every email you send. I try to answer every private message you send to me.
8. We run three hour live feeds during severe weather where we attempt to answer as many questions as possible. Same for winter storms.
9. You receive access to special short and long-range video updates from the Bamwx team (who help me with daily videos).
10. You receive access to special short, long-range, and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
11. Your subscription fee helps six local charities (see comment section for more information).
Normal monthly out of pocket operating costs (see comment section) are around $2000.00.
The service I provide is unique. I don’t believe there is anything else like it in the country. Not for this price and not for the volume of information you receive.
We hope to have the new app and website finished soon. Watch for announcements.
New schedule
Example of some of my rapid-fire tornado app/text messages.
Make sure you have app/text notification ONE turned on. This one is called WeatherOne. You can make sure that is on by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account and clicking the personal notification settings tab. Make sure WeatherOne is on (green). Green is on. Red is off.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
