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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms before 11 pm. Fog late at night.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming west at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps. Some strong to severe storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates because severe storms are possible.
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roadways. High winds and hail possible in the most intense storms. Isolated tornado risk.
Monday – Morning fog possible. Morning clouds giving way to sunshine. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday Night – Mostly clear. Crisp.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Sunny. Pleasant day. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Increasingly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Lightning possible.
Wednesday Night – A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Thursday – Increasingly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Southwest at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Lightning possible.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Thunderstorms ending Sunday night
- Dry Monday and Tuesday
- Another chance for rain on Wednesday/Thursday
- Cold snap next Sunday night and Monday.
The main weather story will be Sunday evening thunderstorms. A few storms could be on the strong side. Especially true for western Kentucky and northern parts of western Tennessee. Thunderstorms will end from west to east overnight.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Monday and Tuesday will be dry. Nice temperatures. Nothing extreme.
Another system approaches our area on Wednesday and Thursday. It will likely produce another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Too early to know if severe weather is a concern. Perhaps more likely to our west and north.
I continue to track a cold snap for late this coming weekend and early next week. Temperatures may drop into the 20s and 30s. Hopefully not the 20s. We can handle the 30s. Orchards and other sensitive plants may have problems if temperatures fall into the 20s.
Here is the GFS forecast low temperature map for next Monday morning. GFS is a model.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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There is a level three risk for severe weather over mainly the eastern half of the region on Sunday afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce hail and high winds.
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No major changes in this update.
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Main concern will be Sunday evening thunderstorms. A few intense.
Evening storms on Sunday could be strong.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
After Sunday nights rain we will be dry for Monday and Tuesday. Another system should bring some showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
