Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Good morning, everyone.   Clouds have been increasing across the region overnight.

Here was the early morning satellite view.

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A band of showers and thunderstorms extends from northern Missouri into northwest Kentucky.  That has developed along a frontal boundary.

Here is what the 6 am radar showed.

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This rain is moving southeast.  See the local radar links at the top of this blog update.

We are waking up to cool temperatures.  Nothing extreme.

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Rain probabilities today will be higher across my northern and northeastern counties.

Today’s rain probabilities.

Higher north northeast.  Lower south-southwest.

And tonight’s rain chances.  Again, they will be higher over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.

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Areas not in the rain today will experience partly sunny sky conditions.  Warm temperatures.

Officially, the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of our region in a severe weather risk later today and tonight.  I have doubts about this.  The risk will likely be higher north of St Louis vs south.

I can’t 100% rule out a few storms producing dime to nickel-size hail in the dark green zone (across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois).  Overall, however, the risk of actual severe weather is small.

I will keep an eye on it.  There is not a wind or tornado threat today or tonight.

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WEEKEND UNSETTLED WEATHER

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated with a series of weather systems this weekend.

As mentioned above, questions remain about the threat of severe weather on Sunday afternoon and night.

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday and Sunday, you will want to monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.  I do expect numerous showers and thunderstorms on the radars.  It won’t rain all day at any given spot, but there will be rain on the radar all day.

If you have outdoor plans, then have a plan B and hope for the best.

The risk of severe weather may increase on Sunday afternoon and night, but significant questions remain about this.

I know there are a TON of hype posts on Facebook.  That always seems to be the case.  I would caution you about following those pages.  If you have storm anxiety, then stick with meteorologists that don’t hype every event.

There remain significant questions about how strong the CAP will be on Sunday.  That could help prevent a bigger outbreak.  There also remain questions on the placement and extent of the severe weather threat.

My best advice is to remain updated on the latest forecasts.  There could be severe weather on Sunday afternoon and night, but confidence remains low.

Have three or more ways of receiving severe weather information.  Review your storm safety plans with your family.  Then, monitor updates.

Here is where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined for a severe weather risk on Sunday afternoon and night.  A broad area.

This will be fine-tuned as we get closer to the event.  I can’t rule out a level three somewhere in the region.  Not sure we go above that.

There remain many questions about the severe weather portion of the forecast.

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Rainfall totals through Monday.   Thunderstorms can enhance rain totals.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

This is the Hrrr model.  This shows you today into Friday night.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.