The latest update will be posted here at the top of Beau’s severe weather blog. I may delete old posts if it helps speed up the page.
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March 27, 2021
Concerns:
Locally heavy rain is likely later this afternoon and tonight.
A few thunderstorms could become severe later this afternoon and tonight. Damaging wind and hail being the primary concern.
Make sure your Beau Dodson Weather app is working. Need to download the app?
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10 PM
The severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled.
Storms continue to weaken.
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9:30 PM
The main line of storms is weakening.
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9:11 PM
Radar animation
Click to enlarge
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9:00 PM
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8:52 PM
Cape Girardeau County, Missouri
Severe thunderstorms are approaching northern Cape Girardeau County. Eventually, the line may move through the entire county.
For now, the heaviest portion of the storm line is moving towards the N/NW portion of the county with high wind and hail.
Millersville to Appleton will be in the initial area of storms.
The storms may produce isolated wind damage and quarter size hail.
Be weather aware and seek shelter until these storms pass.
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8:46 PM
Jackson County, Illinois.
Severe thunderstorms are approaching NW Jackson County, Illinois. Eventually, the line may move through the entire county.
For now, the heaviest portion of the storm line is moving towards the NW portion of the county with high wind and hail.
Ava and Campbell Hill are in the path of the storm. In and near those areas.
Be weather aware and seek shelter until these storms pass.
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8:20 PM
Severe thunderstorm warning is official now from the NWS for Perry County, MO.
Perry County, Missouri.
Severe thunderstorms are moving into your county. These storms could produce quarter size hail or larger, 60 mph wind, and even a tornado.
Radar occasionally has shown rotation. Be weather aware and seek shelter until these storms pass.
Perryville, St. Mary, and Lithium are in the path of this severe thunderstorm.
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Severe thunderstorm watch for portions of the area. Remember, there is already a watch further west/northwest. A watch means to monitor. A warning means to seek shelter.
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8:18 PM
Bollinger County, Missouri.
Intense thunderstorms are approaching from the west/southwest.
These storms have produced severe thunderstorm warnings to your west.
These storms may produce 55 mph wind and hail. Occasionally, the storms are producing rotation. Stay weather aware.
These storms are moving east/northeast at 35 mph.
Double click images to enlarge them
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8:12 PM
SPC comments
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8:10 PM
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8 PM
Jefferson County, Illinois.
Intense thunderstorms are approaching from the west.
These storms have produced severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings to the east of Jefferson County.
These storms may produce 55 mph wind and hail. Occasionally, the storms are producing rotation. Stay weather aware.
These storms are moving east at 30 to 40 mph.
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7:39 PM
The line of storms, mentioned earlier, is now approaching Ste Genevieve and Perry Counties in southeast Missouri and Randolph County, Illinois.
There have been some reports of nickel size hail with this line of storms and 50+ mph wind gusts. Occasionally, the storms have had rotation.
Let’s keep an eye on these storms as they move towards your county.
These storms are moving east at 30 to 40 mph.
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6:40 PM
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5:30 PM
Ste. Genevieve, Perry, Bollinger, Cape Girardeau Counties
Randolph, Perry, Jackson, Franklin, and Jefferson Counties.
A severe thunderstorm watch was issued a bit ago for portions of SE MO and southern IL. I included a few counties near the watch in this update.
A line of thunderstorms extended from St Louis down into south-central Missouri.
The line is moving east/northeast.
There is a chance that a few thunderstorms this evening could produce hail and damaging wind. There is a low risk of tornadoes.
Overall, the risk of severe weather at any given location is low. Monitor updates over the coming hours.
You can view the actual watch here
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0062.html
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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5:20 PM
Severe thunderstorm watch for my far northwest counties
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3:40 PM
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3:30 PM
1:35 PM
Showers and thunderstorms are moving into the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. They are already there.
These storms are moving northeast at 40 mph. They are moving into western Kentucky.
We do have a risk of intense thunderstorms later today. I know some of you have outdoor events or are out on the area-lakes.
Check radars if you have concerns
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
1 PM Update
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11 AM Update
I am watching dew points and CAPE (energy) values.
Dew points will rise as the warm front moves northward. CAPE will rise in areas with sunshine, as well.
There are some clouds in western Kentucky that will keep CAPE values lower.
Dew points at 11 AM.
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CAPE (energy)
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The latest future-cast radar from the Hrrr model gives you an idea of what to expect later today.
Take the general idea from this and not specifics.
9 AM Update
Tornado forecast from a person I know that runs a special model.
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Check out the view up in Massac County at the Weather Observatory today
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Satellite showing lightning down in TN. Blue sky here. Radar shows the storms to our south.
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Satellite shows clear sky conditions locally. You have to go down towards Tennessee to find the clouds.
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Latest future-cast radar from the SPC WRF
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7 AM Update
NWS graphics
Flash flood watch for the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee
NWS Paducah graphic
Not much change over the last 24 hours
The primary question remains how far north will the warm front push. This is key to where the heaviest rain will occur and where storms may be severe
As of 7 am this morning, there was a band of heavy thunderstorms across western Tennessee. Some of those thunderstorms were event severe with large hail and damaging wind.
You can see that here
If you want to see a live radar view then go here
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
Here was the 7 AM radar view. You can see that band of storms along the warm front in western Tennessee. Let’s keep an eye on that front.
Much of today will be dry.
Showers and thunderstorms will approach the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee after 2 PM. Those showers and storms will slowly spread northward along the warm front.
You can see that on these future-cast radar images from a variety of models.
Keep in mind, each model has its own idea/solution on how this plays out.
SPC WRF model
Hrrr model
NAM 3K model
NAM model
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Then, a cold front will push into the region from the west/northwest. Some storms will also form along that front.
The end result will be widespread thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight.
Some of these storms could repeatedly train over the same areas. This will enhance rainfall totals.
Do not be surprised if someone ends up with 2 to 3 inches of rain. This could lead to some flash flooding.
The risk of locally heavy rain is higher across western Kentucky and Tennessee.
For now, the NWS has not issued a flash flood watch.
NOAA/WPC does have us in a low-end risk of excessive rainfall.
The green is a level one risk. The yellow is a level two risk. The red is a level three risk.
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Let me show you some rain totals from a variety of models. They will vary greatly because thunderstorms will enhance rain totals and that is difficult to forecast.
This is through tonight and tomorrow morning.
NAM model
NAM 3K model
Hrrr model
SPC WRF model
NOAA/WPC rain forecast
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In addition to heavy rain, a few storms could produce large hail, damaging wind, and even a tornado.
The severe weather risk is once again conditional. Conditional means that one or more ingredients for severe thunderstorms is questionable.
The SPC/NOAA has us in a level one and two risk (as of this writing). A level three risk for a small portion of the region. This may be adjusted. SPC will update a few times between now and Saturday.
Light green means non-severe storms. Dark green is a level one risk. Perhaps a few severe storms. Level two is a higher risk. It means severe storms could have higher coverage. The orange is a level three threat.
Do not focus on the colors. It only takes one tornado to ruin the day. I have witnessed significant severe weather in all threat zone colors.
Day one outlook.
We will have quite a bit of CAPE today. CAPE is energy for thunderstorms to tap into. Higher CAPE numbers equal higher chances of severe thunderstorms.
CAPE values later today. The warm temperatures will help build energy.
We will need to watch the position of the warm front. One condition of severe weather today is that front needs to push northward into our region.
Let’s keep an eye on it.
Numerous ingredients are coming together for at least a few severe weather reports.
March 26, 2021
6 AM Update
We have no weather concerns today.
A few thunderstorms are possible late tonight over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. Most of the region will remain dry.
Much warmer Saturday. It is going to be like spring! Highs well into the mid to upper 70s. Some areas may hit 80 degrees.
A warm front will push northward into the region from the Gulf of Mexico late tonight and tomorrow. This will be the focus of repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is a concern.
Here is what three NWS offices are saying.
Paducah, Kentucky, NWS
St Louis, Missouri, NWS
Memphis, Tennessee, NWS
You can see the surge of moisture moving northward with the warm front in this dew point animation.
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And the precipitable water values will be high, as well.
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Also, a cold front will approach the region (from the northwest) Saturday afternoon and night. This will help bring lift back into the area. The end result will be scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
There will be some CAPE to work with. Remember, CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. CAPE values above 1000 are likely.
Saturday evening CAPE map.
Some of the storms could be severe with damaging wind and hail. Heavy rain could cause some flooding issues, as well. We will need to watch rain totals.
The thunderstorms along the cold front likely won’t develop until late in the afternoon and evening.
Much of Saturday may remain dry across most of my forecast counties. Check the radars.
The rain should end by Sunday.
Rain totals of one to two inches will be possible Saturday and Saturday night. Locally higher if thunderstorms train over the same areas.
Let me show you a few rainfall forecast maps. Keep in mind, rain totals will vary greatly because of thunderstorms.
NAM model
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NAM 3K model
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GFS model
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NOAA/WPC
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For now, the NWS has not issued a flash flood watch.
NOAA/WPC does have us in a low-end risk of excessive rainfall.
The green is a level one risk. The yellow is a level two risk.
Some safety graphics.
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Have a back-up charger, as well.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
OLD ANIMATIONS ARE DELETED TO SPEED UP THE PAGE
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What you need to know.
Severe thunderstorms are again possible Saturday afternoon and night. This is another one of those conditional risks.
There are questions about cloud cover in the region.
With that said, temperatures and dew points will be higher during this event. There will be more CAPE for this event. Thus, the risk of severe storms may be a bit higher than the last two times. At least confidence levels will be a tad higher.
Either way, a few storms could produce wind damage and hail. Low-end tornado risk. Heavy rain and lightning.
The SPC/NOAA has us in a level one and two risk (as of this writing). A level three risk for a small portion of the region. This may be adjusted. SPC will update a few times between now and Saturday.
Light green means non-severe storms. Dark green is a level one risk. Perhaps a few severe storms. Level two is a higher risk. It means severe storms could have higher coverage. The orange is a level three threat.
Do not focus on the colors. It only takes one tornado to ruin the day. I have witnessed significant severe weather in all threat zone colors.
Day one outlook.
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Day two outlook.
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Key Points
- Thunderstorms will move into the region Saturday. From the south and eventually from the northwest.
- Severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the afternoon and overnight hours (Saturday).
- Have your Beau Dodson Weather app on. Check it. Make sure you have not logged out of the app.
- Remember, a watch means to monitor updates. A warning means to seek shelter. A warning is a higher threat.
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Call to action.
Monitor updated weather forecasts.
Have a safety plan.
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app. Download it from the app store. It is under Weather Talk.
The app is for subscribers (please log into your account and make sure your payment has been updated. We have a large number of declined cards and PayPal payments.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk. Apple users click here. Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Satellite Data
Computers and tablets. These two satellite links may not work well on cell phones.
Visible Satellite. This one is to be used during daylight only. Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page. Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/a5A0e
IR Satellite. This one shows cloud temperatures. Bright colors represent cold cloud tops. That could mean thunderstorms. Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page. Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/R2fw1
Water Vapor Satellite. This one shows mid-level moisture in the atmosphere. Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page. Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/xFVwx
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Not receiving app/text messages?
USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are slowing or stopping the text messages.
Make sure you have the correct app/text options turned on. Find those under the personal notification settings tab at www.weathertalk.com. Red is off. Green is on.
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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