2 PM
No major adjustments to the going forecast.
WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00. Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.
For $3 a month you can receive the following. You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.
- Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone. These are hand typed by Beau. During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
- Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
- Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone. When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
- AWARE emails. These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
- Direct access to Beau via text and email. Your very own personal meteorologist. I work for you!
- Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
- Long-range weather videos
- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
- Monthly outlooks.
- Your subscription also will help support several local charities.
Haven’t you subscribed? Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
March 27, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Some breaks in the clouds over far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Rain likely across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Rain coverage increases as the day wears on. Scattered showers possible over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 70 (Bootheel warmest and rain areas cooler) IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 68 NW TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% Bootheel and 50% elsewhere IL ~ 40% northern counties and 60% far southern counties KY ~ 80% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Scattered for western Kentucky and Tennessee. The band of precipitation will shift east and southeast through the day. Pennyrile area of western Kentucky may remain mostly dry.
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A few lightning strikes. Moderate to heavy downpours possible. The bulk of the rain will likely remain across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere, monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:47 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely, especially across the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee into western Kentucky, and extreme southern Illinois. Rain should become more scattered north and west of there.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 90% NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread across portions of the region.
Winds: South winds becoming southwest and west at 10 to 20 mph. Wind becoming west and northwest later in the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Moderate to heavy downpours possible. Lightning possible (although instability might be lacking).
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset 7:12 PM
March 28, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Scattered showers likely. Late in the day rain will again increase in coverage from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Rain will likely be more scattered over Missouri and Illinois early in the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% northern counties and 60% elsewhere KY ~ Increasing to 70% TN ~ Increasing to 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early and becoming widespread as the day wears on
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B in mind.
Sunrise 6:45 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers becoming widespread rain. Moderate downpours possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Variable 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset 7:13 PM
March 29, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Showers likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70%n IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread early and then ending west to east late in the day
Winds: East and southeast wind becoming variable at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunrise 6:44 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Scattered showers possible early. Becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset 7:14 PM
March 30, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. At this time, it appears Friday will be dry. Hopefully, that holds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:43 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Showers possible after 3 am.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset 7:15 PM
March 31, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South winds becoming west at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise 6:41 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. Chilly temperatures. Rain may mix with snow over our northern counties. No accumulation.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 35 to 42 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset 7:16 PM
April 1, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy early. A chance of morning showers. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:40 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Scattered showers possible. Colder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 40 IL ~ 34 to 40 KY ~ 34 to 42 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunset 7:16 PM
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday through Friday: Lightning can’t be ruled out over the coming days, but severe weather is unlikely. We could have moderate to heavy rain.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
- Rain and then rain
- Milder today across portions of the region
- Friday may end up dry, but rain chances may again increase Saturday and Sunday
- Severe weather outlook remains quiet
- Moderate to heavy rain possible over the coming weeks with an active pattern
- In case you missed it! Here is the Facebook thread with some exciting new announcements concerning Weather Talk. Click here to read that.
Highlights
What has changed over the last 24 hours?
Weather Hazards.
More wet weather for the region. Now, some of you have remained mostly dry over the last 24 hours. That was the forecast. The greatest rain coverage has been across Missouri and Illinois.
The rain chances are beginning to increase further south and east.
A cold front will sag into our region later today and the rain that has been covering portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will shift southeast.
That means increasing rain chances across the rest of the region.
Some of the rain could become moderate to heavy at times.
Severe weather is unlikely. That is the good news. No significant severe weather outbreaks in the charts. That is also good news.
We are moving into the climatological time of the year when severe weather chances increase. Most of you know that.
Temperatures will rise well into the 60’s today outside the rain areas. Some of you might touch 70 degrees. This is especially true if we have some breaks in the clouds. The most likely area for 70-degree readings will be from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Mainly areas near the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
Here is the temperature animation through 1 PM Thursday. You can see the timestamp in the upper left portion of the screen.
Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar animation. This is a model. This is what radar might look like as we move through the next 48 hours. Of course, it won’t be exact, but take the general idea that we will have rain in the region as we move through today, tonight, and into Thursday.
Don’t forget to utilize the local city interactive radars.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange colors are moderate to heavy rain.
This is the NAM model
Timestamp upper left.
Let’s take a look at the Hrrr model guidance. Another models opinion. You can compare the two and see that they have the same idea
Notice how the rain comes in waves and increasing across portions of the region as the day wears on and we enter tonight/tomorrow morning.
Coverage dramatically increases across Kentucky and Tennessee as we move into tonight and tomorrow.
Timestamp upper left.
Wind gust map. Winds will be gusty at times today. Gusts above 25 mph possible.
Let’s look at the Storm Prediction Centers severe weather outlook for today. No concerns locally. Some lightning can’t be ruled out. That is what the light green zone represents.
Instability is really lacking in our region. That is why we don’t have a threat of severe weather. We are fortuntate. Typically, a pattern like this would produce severe weather. Always something to be thankful for.
The dark green and yellow zone is where some severe storms are possible.
Here is the day two severe weather outlook. Light green again. Maybe some lightning.
Here is the latest WPC excessive rain outlook. This is issued by NOAA and shows you where rain totals could exceed the amounts necessary for some flooding concerns.
Overall, the flooding concerns in our region remain fairly low. A flood watch is in effect across our far western counties in southeast Missouri and Randolph County, Illinois (see map further down).
Moderate to perhaps some heavy downpours are possible in our region over the next few days.
The green area represents a level one risk (marginal risk). The yellow zone represents a level two risk (called slight), and the red zone represents a level 3 risk (moderate risk).
Here is the Wednesday excessive rainfall outlook. You can see the risk area shifts south and east. Portions of our region are in the level one and two risk. Overall, the risk is not all that great, but isolated problems are a possibility.
Here is the flood watch for portions of Missouri and Illinois.
Let’s take a look at the rainfall accumulation forecast. This is the 48-hour outlook. You can see anywhere from 1″ to 2.25″ across our region. Heaviest totals across southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois.
This won’t be exact but take a general idea.
Here is the 72-hour rain accumulation map. Don’t add the above image and this image together. The above image was the 48-hour outlook and this is the 72-hour outlook. You can see that we don’t add too much precipitation by day three.
Let’s take a look at the seven-day rain accumulation forecast. This is how much rain is possible between now and next Tuesday morning.
Check out the large area of heavy rain over the coming seven days. This is a repeating pattern. We just went through this a month ago.
Let’s look at what the modes are saying. How much rain could fall over the coming days?
These are the 240-hour rain accumulation totals. This is a weather model and won’t be exact. Every model is a little different.
Notice that all the models have the same basic idea. Widespread rain over areas from Oklahoma and Texas into the Ohio Valley.
This first model is the EC guidance.
This next image is the GFS model guidance.
This next map is the GEM model guidance. Again, same idea.
Unfortunately, we are not finished with the cold weather. We might see temperatures dip into the 30’s Saturday and Sunday night.
The GFS even shows some 20’s Saturday night. Not sure about that, just yet. GFS has a slight cold bias. Either way, it won’t be warm.
Sunday
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Weather Brains episode number 633
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
t’s a full house for this episode of WeatherBrains with representatives from a number of weather-related podcasts. Joining us are Becky DePodwin, Ice Station Housman, Scotty Powell from Carolina Weather Gang, Castle Williams,
WeatherHype
, Mark Jelinek, What is it About the Weather, and Phil Johnson of Storm Front Freaks Podcast. This show marks National Weather Podcast Month.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 98 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and -7 at Cut Bank, MT
- The creative outlet that is podcasts and how they have changed over time
- The importance of providing good content in podcasting
- 25th Anniversary of Blizzard of 1993
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more
.
ANNOUNCEMENT!
I am working on a few new items for us.
As always, I am grateful for all of you and the support you bring to my passion.
There was never a plan.
All of this started with a severe weather email list of ten or twenty people after the killer 2003 tornadoes. That grew to what you see today.
From that tornado, the Shadow Angel Foundation was born. We delivered hundreds of teddy bears to Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties. The “storm” bears went to Head Start, Kindergarten, and first graders. Included with the bears was a package of information for parents on how to talk to their child about tornadoes and severe weather.
We then worked with the Metropolis Planet on producing the Terror in the Night tornado book. The book was filled with personal accounts of that horrible night. Many people said the book helped bring closure.
Since then we have delivered thousands of teddy bears to Child Watch and Pasac. The counselors use the teddy bears to help the children feel safe.
Soon after that, the late Kent King (radio DJ and emergency manager) asked me to cover weather for McCracken County OEM/DES. I was COM 10 on the scanner feeds.
Ed Duff, with McCracken County Rescue, now utilizes my services during severe weather events along with two other local counties. They receive one on one attention during events.
That led me to Sue Henry with the American Red Cross where I was able to help during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. An experience that changed my life.
Around that time social media exploded onto the scene. My personal Facebook page quickly filled up with 5000 people. The limit Facebook allows for personal pages.
Facebook then started pages. I was able to make a page just for weather.
It was soon after that that I bought a portion of my family farm back. We built my house and the Weather Observatory.
Jason Darnall helped put together an amazing weather center. Many hours of work.
Then the Paducah Sun then asked me to do weather for them.
That led to the amazing team at Innovations Branding House. They produced my Weather Observatory website.
About four years ago there was a falling out with some local meteorologists. It bothered me so much that I almost quit weather.
The Paducah Sun even ran a story that I was taking a break from weather. I was taking a year off.
Several other local meteorologists then came to me and told me to brush it off. They encouraged me to start a weather business. They explained what I could bring to the local weather table.
Soon after that, as fate would have it, Preston Ursini and the Fire Horn team asked me to think about producing text messages during severe weather. That led to Weather Talk. That then led to the Weather Talk app.
Had it not been for that low point, I don’t think Weather Talk would have ever come to be. Life is funny like that. Something bad turned into something good.
I often times tell people that I have the best Facebook friends, enthusiasts, and followers. It is rare that someone complains on the weather page.
Some of you have basically become like family to me. When severe weather strikes it becomes personal to both you and me.
Here is what we are going to bring you.
1. We are coming out with a major app update for subscribers. We plan on having radar in the app, as well as your usual app/text messages to the daily blog, video, and Facebook updates.
2. We are completely revamping the WeatherTalk website. Preston Ursini, from The Fire Horn, is working alongside Innovations Branding House to complete this task. The Fire Horn is who I partner with to make all of this work.
3. I am going to try and stick to a daily schedule. That way everyone knows when to expect an update. See the comment section.
4. Many of you have asked me to do Facebook Live video updates during winter storms and severe weather outbreaks. I have spent the last week learning how to use OBS studio software. This software will allow me to deliver you Facebook Live events. You will get your wish.
5. We are moving towards a flat subscription fee of $5 a month. Everyone that is paying $3 a month will be grandfathered in. If you want to voluntarily upgrade to the $5 plan then that would be great. We will roll this out when the new website is finished.
Right now we have a $3, $5, and $10 plan. The only difference is how many cell phone numbers you can add.
With the $5 a month plan we will let everyone have up to seven phone numbers. That should cover your family members. Sound good?
6. I have streamlined the digital media blog. That would be the talk.weathertalk.com site. You will find that is has been organized.
Remember, I work for you. I don’t work for television or radio. I am your employee.
You have a personal meteorologist. And, as everyone knows, I put my heart and soul into this.
Subscribers will receive the following:
You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
1. The app/text updates during tornado outbreaks and all other weather events.
2. Rapid-fire tornado app/text messages. I send out numerous updates as I track the tornado. Some of you can testify to these rapid-fire tornado messages.
3. Daily weather forecast sent to your app/text.
4. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on non-severe weather days. Instead of waiting around for me to post a new Facebook thread you can receive it in your app/text.
5. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on severe weather or winter storm days.
6. We are updating the weather map page on the website. That page will have thousands of daily weather maps for you to access.
7. I answer every email you send. I try to answer every private message you send to me.
8. We run three hour live feeds during severe weather where we attempt to answer as many questions as possible. Same for winter storms.
9. You receive access to special short and long-range video updates from the Bamwx team (who help me with daily videos).
10. You receive access to special short, long-range, and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
11. Your subscription fee helps six local charities (see comment section for more information).
Normal monthly out of pocket operating costs (see comment section) are around $2000.00.
The service I provide is unique. I don’t believe there is anything else like it in the country. Not for this price and not for the volume of information you receive.
We hope to have the new app and website finished soon. Watch for announcements.
New schedule
Example of some of my rapid-fire tornado app/text messages.
Make sure you have app/text notification ONE turned on. This one is called WeatherOne. You can make sure that is on by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account and clicking the personal notification settings tab. Make sure WeatherOne is on (green). Green is on. Red is off.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
