The models are showing an active pattern with multiple rain events.
Here is the NAM future-cast radar (morning run).
Check out the GFS, GEM, and EC model rain totals over the next two weeks.
Now, these are models, of course. Don’t walk away with specifics. Just take a general idea. It is going to be wet over the coming weeks.
Several cold snaps are showing up in the charts, as well. I don’t think we are finished with cold weather. Sorry.
GFS
GEM
EC
WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00. Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.
For $3 a month you can receive the following. You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.
- Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone. These are hand typed by Beau. During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
- Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
- Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone. When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
- AWARE emails. These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
- Direct access to Beau via text and email. Your very own personal meteorologist. I work for you!
- Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
- Long-range weather videos
- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
- Monthly outlooks.
- Your subscription also will help support several local charities.
Haven’t you subscribed? Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
March 26, 2018
Keep in mind, rain chances over the next 48 hours will vary considerably. Portions of the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky may not see as much coverage as areas to the west. Southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois will likely have the greatest coverage.
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain increasing southwest to northeast as the day wears on. Lightning possible. A few of the storms this morning could be strong over southeast Missouri with small hail. Rain coverage will vary.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 68 (wide range of temperatures. Warmer south of the warm front and cooler north and east of the warm front) IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Winds: South and southeast 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Small hail before noon in southeast Missouri. Isolated.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:48 AM
Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers. Windy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Some of the rain could be moderate to heavy across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Rain coverage will vary. More west vs east. See rain probabilities below.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% western parts of southeast Missouri and 50% eastern sections IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% for far western Kentucky and 30% for the Pennyrile area. TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southeast 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Small chance of lightning over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Moderate to heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunset 7:11 PM
March 27, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Windy. Some of the rain could be moderate to heavy across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 70 (Bootheel warmest and rain areas cooler) IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% for far western Kentucky and 40% for the Pennyrile area into northwest Kentucky. TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Scattered for western Kentucky and Tennessee.
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Moderate to heavy downpours possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:47 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Winds: South winds becoming southwest and west at 10 to 20 mph. Wind may become northwest later in the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Moderate to heavy downpours possible. Lightning possible (although instability might be lacking).
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset 7:12 PM
March 28, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Rain may taper from west to east during the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B in mind.
Sunrise 6:45 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~ 43 to 46 KY ~ 46 to 50 TN ~ 46 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Variable 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset 7:13 PM
March 29, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunrise 6:44 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset 7:14 PM
March 30, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise 6:43 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunset 7:15 PM
March 31, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South winds becoming west at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise 6:41 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. A thunderstorm possible, as well.
Temperatures: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~ 43 to 46 KY ~ 46 to 50 TN ~ 46 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset 7:16 PM
April 1, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy early. A chance of morning showers. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:40 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset 7:16 PM
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Monday through Friday: Organized severe weather is unlikely. Some lightning will be possible along with small hail. Flooding is a concern over the coming week and perhaps next week. An active period developing with numerous chances of rain.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
- More rain is on the way. We don’t need more rain.
- Somewhat milder temperatures this week. Clouds and rain, however, could keep temperatures down a bit.
- I am monitoring the potential of moderate to heavy downpours.
- In case you missed it! Here is the Facebook thread with some exciting new announcements concerning Weather Talk. Click here to read that.
Highlights
What has changed over the last 24 hours?
Weather Hazards.
Another wet week ahead for the region. We just can’t shake this pattern. As we move into spring this pattern is likely going to produce more severe weather. We will need to monitor the coming weeks. Even though it may not completely feel like spring, the storm systems are likely to start tapping more warm and moist air.
We will have increasing rain chances today and tonight. The greatest coverage of rain today and tonight will be across the western half of the region. That would include areas from Carmi, Illinois, to Paducah, Kentucky, to Weakley County, Tennessee. Showers are possible east of there, but coverage may not be as great.
A few thunderstorms are possible. Small hail can’t be ruled out this morning over southeast Missouri.
It will be mild this week, but with clouds and rain I am not sure it will matter.
We will have at least some chance of rain today through perhaps Friday. I am also watching Saturday through Monday. We could have rain chances every day into the weekend.
Flooding is a concern. There is a flood watch across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Here is the flood watch information. This is from the St Louis, Missouri, NWS.
Green zone is the flood watch.
Anticipated rain totals may vary based on thunderstorms. You get a general idea of what to expect.
7 AM today through 7 AM Wednesday. Keep in mind, additional rain likely into the end of the week.
Areas impacted.
Let’s pull out a bit. Here is the latest WPC rain outlook through the next seven days. Wet is the word.
As you can see, there is a chance of widespread one to two inches of rain. The, locally much higher totals. Remember, thunderstorms can also produce heavier rain. That can vary county to county.
Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar from the NAM guidance. Keep in mind, this is one model’s opinion and won’t be exact. Take the general idea from this loop.
Click to enlarge. The yellow and orange colors are heavier downpours.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the screen.
Let’s look at alonger animation. This is the GFS model. Future-cast radar. This takes us into the long range.
What I want you to take from this animation is just how many days we have chances of rain.
Will this model be correct? It won’t be exact, but it does give you an idea. A wet pattern may be with us into April. Not the best news for farmers. Flooding could also continue to be a concern.
The timestamp is found in the upper-left portion of the image.
Here is the short-term temperature animation. A wide range of temperatures today because of a warm front.
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Weather Brains episode number 633
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
t’s a full house for this episode of WeatherBrains with representatives from a number of weather-related podcasts. Joining us are Becky DePodwin, Ice Station Housman, Scotty Powell from Carolina Weather Gang, Castle Williams,
WeatherHype
, Mark Jelinek, What is it About the Weather, and Phil Johnson of Storm Front Freaks Podcast. This show marks National Weather Podcast Month.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 98 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and -7 at Cut Bank, MT
- The creative outlet that is podcasts and how they have changed over time
- The importance of providing good content in podcasting
- 25th Anniversary of Blizzard of 1993
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more
.
ANNOUNCEMENT!
I am working on a few new items for us.
As always, I am grateful for all of you and the support you bring to my passion.
There was never a plan.
All of this started with a severe weather email list of ten or twenty people after the killer 2003 tornadoes. That grew to what you see today.
From that tornado, the Shadow Angel Foundation was born. We delivered hundreds of teddy bears to Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties. The “storm” bears went to Head Start, Kindergarten, and first graders. Included with the bears was a package of information for parents on how to talk to their child about tornadoes and severe weather.
We then worked with the Metropolis Planet on producing the Terror in the Night tornado book. The book was filled with personal accounts of that horrible night. Many people said the book helped bring closure.
Since then we have delivered thousands of teddy bears to Child Watch and Pasac. The counselors use the teddy bears to help the children feel safe.
Soon after that, the late Kent King (radio DJ and emergency manager) asked me to cover weather for McCracken County OEM/DES. I was COM 10 on the scanner feeds.
Ed Duff, with McCracken County Rescue, now utilizes my services during severe weather events along with two other local counties. They receive one on one attention during events.
That led me to Sue Henry with the American Red Cross where I was able to help during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. An experience that changed my life.
Around that time social media exploded onto the scene. My personal Facebook page quickly filled up with 5000 people. The limit Facebook allows for personal pages.
Facebook then started pages. I was able to make a page just for weather.
It was soon after that that I bought a portion of my family farm back. We built my house and the Weather Observatory.
Jason Darnall helped put together an amazing weather center. Many hours of work.
Then the Paducah Sun then asked me to do weather for them.
That led to the amazing team at Innovations Branding House. They produced my Weather Observatory website.
About four years ago there was a falling out with some local meteorologists. It bothered me so much that I almost quit weather.
The Paducah Sun even ran a story that I was taking a break from weather. I was taking a year off.
Several other local meteorologists then came to me and told me to brush it off. They encouraged me to start a weather business. They explained what I could bring to the local weather table.
Soon after that, as fate would have it, Preston Ursini and the Fire Horn team asked me to think about producing text messages during severe weather. That led to Weather Talk. That then led to the Weather Talk app.
Had it not been for that low point, I don’t think Weather Talk would have ever come to be. Life is funny like that. Something bad turned into something good.
I often times tell people that I have the best Facebook friends, enthusiasts, and followers. It is rare that someone complains on the weather page.
Some of you have basically become like family to me. When severe weather strikes it becomes personal to both you and me.
Here is what we are going to bring you.
1. We are coming out with a major app update for subscribers. We plan on having radar in the app, as well as your usual app/text messages to the daily blog, video, and Facebook updates.
2. We are completely revamping the WeatherTalk website. Preston Ursini, from The Fire Horn, is working alongside Innovations Branding House to complete this task. The Fire Horn is who I partner with to make all of this work.
3. I am going to try and stick to a daily schedule. That way everyone knows when to expect an update. See the comment section.
4. Many of you have asked me to do Facebook Live video updates during winter storms and severe weather outbreaks. I have spent the last week learning how to use OBS studio software. This software will allow me to deliver you Facebook Live events. You will get your wish.
5. We are moving towards a flat subscription fee of $5 a month. Everyone that is paying $3 a month will be grandfathered in. If you want to voluntarily upgrade to the $5 plan then that would be great. We will roll this out when the new website is finished.
Right now we have a $3, $5, and $10 plan. The only difference is how many cell phone numbers you can add.
With the $5 a month plan we will let everyone have up to seven phone numbers. That should cover your family members. Sound good?
6. I have streamlined the digital media blog. That would be the talk.weathertalk.com site. You will find that is has been organized.
Remember, I work for you. I don’t work for television or radio. I am your employee.
You have a personal meteorologist. And, as everyone knows, I put my heart and soul into this.
Subscribers will receive the following:
You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
1. The app/text updates during tornado outbreaks and all other weather events.
2. Rapid-fire tornado app/text messages. I send out numerous updates as I track the tornado. Some of you can testify to these rapid-fire tornado messages.
3. Daily weather forecast sent to your app/text.
4. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on non-severe weather days. Instead of waiting around for me to post a new Facebook thread you can receive it in your app/text.
5. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on severe weather or winter storm days.
6. We are updating the weather map page on the website. That page will have thousands of daily weather maps for you to access.
7. I answer every email you send. I try to answer every private message you send to me.
8. We run three hour live feeds during severe weather where we attempt to answer as many questions as possible. Same for winter storms.
9. You receive access to special short and long-range video updates from the Bamwx team (who help me with daily videos).
10. You receive access to special short, long-range, and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
11. Your subscription fee helps six local charities (see comment section for more information).
Normal monthly out of pocket operating costs (see comment section) are around $2000.00.
The service I provide is unique. I don’t believe there is anything else like it in the country. Not for this price and not for the volume of information you receive.
We hope to have the new app and website finished soon. Watch for announcements.
New schedule
Example of some of my rapid-fire tornado app/text messages.
Make sure you have app/text notification ONE turned on. This one is called WeatherOne. You can make sure that is on by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account and clicking the personal notification settings tab. Make sure WeatherOne is on (green). Green is on. Red is off.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
