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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Chilly. Chance for frost. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy fog and frost
Saturday – Mostly sunny and mild. Nice day anticipated for outdoor activities.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Increasing clouds through the night. Temperatures may actually rise late at night.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated or none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Increasingly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Low confidence on the Sunday forecast.
Temperatures: High temperatures middle 60s
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% low confidence
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers are possible. Monitor updates if you have outdoor events.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roadways. Strong storms? Low confidence.
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lower than normal confidence.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some storms are possible. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways possible
Monday – Morning clouds giving way to sunshine. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday Night – Mostly clear. Crisp.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Sunny. Pleasant day. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 60s
Winds: South and southeast winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Cool weather Friday night with patchy fog and frost.
- Beautiful Saturday for the region
- Closely monitoring Sunday’s weather forecast
- Major cold snap the first week of April?
- Drought of 2016?
It was chilly last night. Temperatures dipped into the 30s. We did warm up a little bit today. But, the best weather is yet to come.
We do have some frost in the forecast tonight. Keep that in mind. Patchy fog possible, as well.
Saturday should be a beautiful day across the region. Expect sunshine and temperatures into the 60s. Saturday is the pick day of the weekend. I hope you are able to get out and enjoy it!
Our next weather event needs to be closely monitored. An area of low pressure is forecast to push out of Arkansas and move into our region. There remain some questions as to the exact track of the low. And, that is key to our weather forecast.
If the low tracks to our west and north then that places us in the warm sector. The warm sector is where showers and thunderstorms will occur. The atmosphere is expected to be unstable with this system. Severe thunderstorms are likely in the warm sector of the system. But, confidence is low as to the eventual track. I would encourage everyone to monitor updates.
Another system is forecast to move into our region around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. We will be in the warm sector of that system. Thunderstorms are likely as a cold front sweeps through the region. Once again we will need to monitor for the potential of heavy thunderstorms. It is certainly that time of the year.
Some of the data suggests a very sharp cold snap the first week of April. Just how cold is the question. The GFS guidance shows temperatures falling into the 20s. Hopefully it is overdoing the cold. It has a tendency to do that. I will monitor. But, be aware that we are not finished with cold weather.
On another note
There are numerous signals that we might be in store for a hot and dry summer. Drought is a possibility. Perhaps centered to our north. That places us on the southern end of the drought. This is something to monitor. Long range forecasting is always low confidence. But, there are a number of signals pointing in this direction.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Level zero risk for storms on Friday night into Saturday night.
I will be monitoring Sunday and Sunday night for thunderstorms. There is a risk for severe weather to the east and south of the area of low pressure. Monitor updates.
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I continue to update Sunday’s forecast.
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The main concern will be thunderstorms on Sunday. Severe weather is possible somewhere in the Ohio and/or Tennessee Valleys. We will need to watch the track of an area of low pressure coming out of Arkansas. If it tracks to our west and north then thunderstorms will be possible.
Monitor updates concerning Sunday’s weather forecast. Storms are possible in or near the region. Low confidence on placement.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain through Saturday night. I am closely monitoring Sunday and Sunday night for showers and thunderstorms. The track of the area if low pressure will be key to just how much rain falls. Monitor updates. Locally heavy rain may occur somewhere in the region. Again, depending on the track of the low.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
