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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Thursday Night – Some clouds. Evening showers ending. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Nothing significant
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for freeze conditions.
Friday – Partly sunny. Cooler.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 50s
Winds: North/northwest wind at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Chilly. Small chance for frost.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and mild. Nice day anticipated for outdoor activities.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 60s
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Increasing clouds through the night. Temperatures may actually rise late at night.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated or none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Increasingly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Low confidence.
Temperatures: High temperatures middle 60s
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% low confidence
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers are possible. Monitor updates if you have outdoor events.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roadways. Strong storms? Low confidence.
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lower than normal confidence.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some storms are possible. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Lightning and wet roadways possible
Monday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 60s
Winds: Northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Colder weather tonight and Friday
- Nice Saturday on tap for the region
- Watching Sunday for showers/storms
- Cold snap in April appears likely
Showers and thunderstorms dropped 0.05″-2″ of rain over the region Thursday morning and afternoon. Wide range of precipitation totals. Always hard to pinpoint totals with squall lines. Some places end up with a lot of rain. Other places end up with very little.
Here is a satellite view of the system as it pulls away. Those red colors are tall thunderstorms tops. Intense storms along the Gulf of Mexico.
A cold front is sweeping through the region. Colder air arrives tonight (Thursday night) into Friday. We will start to see a warming trend on Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures on Friday and Saturday morning will dip into the 30s. Can’t rule out frost. Winds and clouds may negate the frost concerns. But, it will be cold.
Friday and Saturday will be dry. Saturday might be the pick day of the weekend. Highs into the 60s with quite a bit of sunshine. Nice.
I am closely monitoring the track of an area of low pressure on Easter Sunday. Models are all over the place with this system. At this time, it appears that an area of low pressure will track from Arkansas into Missouri and Illinois on Easter Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the system as it pushes northeast into our region. Some storms could be on the strong side.
There remains a lot of uncertainties about Sunday’s forecast. Monitor updates.
A sharp cold snap is possible the first week of April. Some of the charts show very cold air for this time of the year.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Level zero risk for storms on Thursday night into Saturday night.
I will be monitoring Sunday and Sunday night for thunderstorms. Low confidence.
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I continue to update Sunday’s forecast.
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Small chance for freeze conditions late Thursday night and Friday morning.
No
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain expected Thursday into Saturday night. I am watching Sunday for another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
