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Seven-Day Tornado Outlook 
March 24th through March 31st
Current risk: MONITOR. I am monitoring Friday through Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible, but it is still too early to know if there will be a tornado threat.
Current confidence level: LOW.
Comment: A storm system will move into our region this Friday into Sunday. At this time, the ingredients for severe weather may come together on Saturday or Sunday. Monitor updates over the coming days.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Isolated lightning is possible on Thursday and Thursday night. Lightning is likely Friday into Sunday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I am monitoring Friday into Sunday. Perhaps the peak chances of storms will be Saturday PM and into Sunday. Monitor updates.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined our region for a risk of severe storms on Saturday and Sunday.
This is still in the long range. I expect these outlooks to be adjusted with each passing day. Monitor updates. It is spring, after all.
Saturday’s severe weather outlook
Sunday’s severe weather outlook
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3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? UNLIKELY. I will monitor Saturday and Sunday. Locally heavy rain can’t be ruled out.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 0 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Forecast discussion.
- Light showers are possible tonight into Tuesday night, mainly across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. See rain probability graphics below.
- Mild temperatures today into the weekend.
- A few showers and storms are possible on Thursday and Thursday night.
- Avoid burning brush and fields over the coming days.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely this coming weekend. Some storms could be intense.
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Severe thunderstorms rolled through the region yesterday evening. We received numerous reports of dime to quarter size hail across portions of far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
A few reports of high wind gusts. Thankfully, despite having a tornado watch, there were no reports of tornadoes. Let’s take that as a win.
We will have calm weather today. The weather will be controlled by northwest jet-stream flow over the coming days.
There will be increasing clouds this afternoon and evening.
A fast-moving system will bring a few showers to the region tonight into Tuesday night, mainly across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Otherwise, clouds will increase area-wide tonight.
Temperatures will be mild today into Wednesday. No extremes.
Slightly warmer air will begin to filter northward on Thursday. This will lead to some scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Nothing of significance.
A larger system arrives this weekend.
I am watching Friday into Sunday for increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. There are differences in opinion on the exact timing.
We will have scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night. Then, chances will increase on Saturday and Sunday.
Let’s look at some of those rain probabilities.
Tonight
Tomorrow
Tuesday night
Thursday
Thursday night
Then, rain chances ramp up as we move into Friday through Sunday.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. I can’t rule out severe weather. Monitor updates over the coming days.
I will be watching dew points. The dew point is a measure of moisture.
Dew points in the sixties would raise severe weather concerns. The GFS does show them rising into the sixties.
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Rainfall totals through next Sunday. Depending on the strength and track of the weekend system, these may still need adjusting.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
This shows you the weekend system from the GFS model.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Here is the future-cast radar.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here

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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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