Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars.  Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Click here to read a special severe weather blog post concerning Thursday’s severe weather potential.

.

.

.

.

March 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.  More clouds during the morning vs the afternoon.  Mild.  Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near the Indiana border) ~ 0%    NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72°    SE MO 68° to 70°    South IL  66° to 68°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  66° to 68°    West KY 68° to 72°    NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  5.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
.

Wednesday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms (late).  Some storms could be intense after 3 AM. Temperatures may rise overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70%    MO Bootheel ~ 90%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70%     South IL ~ 70%    West KY ~ 70%    NW KY (near the Indiana border) ~ 60%    NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous and spreading in from the south/southwest.
Timing of the rain: Low chances before 2 AM.  Rising chances after 2 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58°     SE  MO  52° to 55°     South IL  50° to 55°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°    West KY 52° to 55°     NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed:   East southeast wind 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.   Lightning.  Hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  2:39 PM
Moonset:  4:40 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

.

Click here to read a special severe weather blog post concerning Thursday’s severe weather potential.

March 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Cloudy.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could become severe.   Locally heavy rain.  Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100%    MO Bootheel ~ 100%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100%     South IL ~ 100%    West KY ~ 100%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100%     NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the rain: At any given point during the day.  It will not rain all day.  There will be intervals of rain bands/storms.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70°    SE MO 64° to 66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  63° to 66°    West KY 63° to 66°    NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could be severe.  Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Have a plan B.
UV Index:  4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 7:12 PM
.

Thursday night Forecast:  Becoming windy.  Showers and thunderstorms ending early in the night.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%    MO Bootheel ~ 20%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50%     South IL ~ 50%    West KY ~ 60%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70%     NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous early.  Ending west to east.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 PM.  Coverage decreases as we move through the overnight hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48°     SE  MO  43° to 46°     South IL  43° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46°    West KY 44° to 46°     NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest and west at 20 to 40 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could be severe early in the evening.  Strong wind gusts possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise:  3:46 PM
Moonset:  5:20 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

.

March 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast:  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70°    SE MO 62° to 65°    South IL  62° to 65°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph.  Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 7:13  PM
.

Friday night Forecast:   Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     SE  MO  44° to 46°     South IL  44° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46°    West KY 44° to 46°     NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  Southerly at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  4:57 PM
Moonset:  5:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

.

March 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Warmer.   A slight chance of PM showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10%    MO Bootheel ~ 20%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10%     South IL ~ 20%    West KY ~ 20%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%     NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the rain:  After 12 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°     SE MO 74° to 76°    South IL  74° to 76°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76°    West KY 74° to 76°    NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 7:14  PM
.

Saturday night Forecast:   Increasing clouds.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%    MO Bootheel ~ 40%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20%     South IL ~ 30%    West KY ~ 30%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%     NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  At any given point in the night.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°     SE  MO  44° to 46°     South IL  43° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 46° to 48°     NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed:  West southwest becoming west northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.
Moonrise:  6:09 PM
Moonset:  6:30 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

.

March 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Clearing.  Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:  N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°    SE MO 62° to 64°    South IL  62° to 64°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64°    West KY 62° to 65°    NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest and north at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  7.  High.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 7:14  PM
.

Sunday night Forecast:   Clearing and colder.  Frost is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46°     SE  MO  36° to 42°     South IL  36° to 42°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44°    West KY 40° to 45°     NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  6:09 PM
Moonset:  6:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

.

March 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:  N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°    SE MO 64° to 68°    South IL  64° to 68°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  7.  High.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 7:15  PM
.

Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10%    MO Bootheel ~ 10%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:  N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52°     SE  MO  48° to 52°     South IL  48° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52°    West KY 48° to 52°     NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  8:35 PM
Moonset:  7:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

.

March 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%    MO Bootheel ~ 20%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20%     South IL ~ 20%    West KY ~ 20%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%     NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given time of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°    SE MO 68° to 72°    South IL  68° to 72°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72°    West KY 68° to 72°    NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index:  5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 7:16 PM
.

Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40%    MO Bootheel ~ 40%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40%     South IL ~ 40%    West KY ~ 40%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%     NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given time of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 54°     SE  MO  48° to 52°     South IL  48° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52°    West KY 48° to 52°     NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise:  9:49 PM
Moonset:  8:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

.

March 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%    MO Bootheel ~ 30%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30%     South IL ~ 30%    West KY ~ 30%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%     NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given time of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°    SE MO 68° to 72°    South IL  68° to 72°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72°    West KY 68° to 72°    NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index:  4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
.

Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40%    MO Bootheel ~ 40%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40%     South IL ~ 40%    West KY ~ 40%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%     NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given time of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 54°     SE  MO  48° to 52°     South IL  48° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52°    West KY 48° to 52°     NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise:  11:04 PM
Moonset:  8:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

.

.

These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

.

.

.

.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

.

.

Today through March 28th.   Click here to read a special severe weather blog post concerning Thursday’s severe weather potential.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Thursday evening.

A severe weather event may unfold in the region.  This is a conditional risk.  Meaning, the atmosphere has to destabilize after tonight and tomorrow morning’s rain and clouds.

If the atmosphere can re-charge then all modes of severe weather will occur.  Damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes.

What is a severe storm?

.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

.

A significant storm system will develop over the next 24 to 48 hours.

This system will come out of the southwest United States and move into our region late tonight into Thursday night.

Models have all trended towards a deeper/strong area of low pressure.  Models have trended north with the track of the low.

This means that the warm sector of the system will likely push into portions of our region.

The warm sector is where severe weather may occur.  This is another conditional severe weather risk.  Meaning, that if clouds and rain don’t clear out (Thursday) then the severe weather risk is lower.

If the atmosphere can re-charge then severe thunderstorms will almost certainly occur.  As always, monitor updates.  We may not know until late Thursday morning how the afternoon and evening will unfold.

Storms will be racing east/northeast at speeds above 50 mph.  Fast movers.

If severe weather does develop, then you won’t have much time to seek shelter.   Let’s be prepared for whatever happens.

Our region will once again have a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms.  What does conditional mean?  It means that a few ingredients are certain.

The SPC/NOAA has us in a level one, two, and three risk.  Five is the highest risk.

Light green means non-severe storms.  Dark green is a level one risk.  Perhaps a few severe storms.  Level two is a higher risk.  It means severe storms could have higher coverage.  The orange is a level three threat.  The red is a level four threat.  Three and four is where severe thunderstorms could be widespread.

Do not focus on the colors.  It only takes one tornado to ruin the day.  I have witnessed significant severe weather in all threat zone colors.

The entire region is included in the severe weather threat zone.

.

I will be monitoring CAPE levels.

Here is the Hrrr model CAPE values.  This will be Thursday late morning into afternoon.

See the definition of CAPE below this animation.

Double click on the animation to enlarge it.

This is showing CAPE values above 1000.  More than enough fuel to cause issues over at least portions of the region.

.

Remember, those towering cauliflower looking storms in the summer?  Those are thunderstorms.

Of course, they can occur year-round.

Updrafts are what make thunderstorms so tall.  That is also what gives it that cauliflower look.

Storms also have downdrafts.

Without updrafts, you can not have thunderstorms.

CAPE helps increase updrafts.  Higher CAPE values usually mean larger/faster updraft speeds.  Thus, severe storms can occur.

If CAPE levels are lower then the risk of severe weather is lower.

Let me show you what the models are thinking.

Two camps.  The EC camp and the GFS camp.  Both of these models have different ideas.

The EC is farther north than the GFS model.  The further away they are, the less confidence in the forecast.

The good news is that there is a Mean on the EC and GFS.  See that below.  They are very close to agreement.

CAPE values on the ensembles.

Again, remember, each square is one run of the ensemble.

The colors represent CAPE.  For now, we are not paying attention to “how much” CAPE, but rather whether we have any CAPE to work with.

The EC model shows some CAPE Thursday afternoon and evening in our region.

.

GEFS (GFS model)

Thursday afternoon

.

So there is some CAPE in the models.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

The CIPS analog severe weather forecast is showing some potential, as well.

CIPS runs past events and compares them with upcoming events.  Sometimes, you can find potential by looking at past events.

All severe

.

Wind threat

.

Hail threat

.

Tornado threat

.

The SREF model is another one that I watch trends on.  These contours are showing you tornado ingredients.

.

.

I am forecasting a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms.  Conditional means that everything needs to come together in order to have severe storms.

Clouds and rain could interfere with that.  That is what happened last Wednesday.  We had an outbreak of tornadoes to our south and southeast.  Clouds and rain kept our CAPE levels low.  We ended up with no severe reports.

Will that happen again?  It is possible, but we have to monitor it.

That rain event could produce pockets of one to two inches of rain. Perhaps more.  We will need to monitor this since rivers and streams are high.

The area will dry out Friday into Saturday.

A fast moving system may bring some showers late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night  For now, I have low-end rain chances during that time period.  Confidence in the last weekend system is still rather low.

As we head into spring, we will be talking about low pressure centers, warm fronts, and cold fronts.  Quite often!

To dig deeper, we use ensembles.  Ensembles help smooth out the differences in the data/different models.  In theory, at least.

Now, let me show you some ensemble data.

.

First the MEAN from the EC and GFS models.  The Mean would be from all the model runs (put together).

EC model

We are looking at the track of the low pressure center.

Thursday evening

Then it moves into southern Illinois and deepens.

GEFS model

The GEFS shifted north and now looks more like the EC model.  That means there is not agreement between the two models.  Confidence is increasing that the low will track further north than some models showed over the past few days.

The EC and GEFS seem to agree on the Mean.

.

This is the EC model.

Over the past 24 hours, the EC and GFS models have come into better agreement as to where the low will track.

This is increasing forecast confidence in the final outcome.

This is Thursday afternoon.  Those L’s represent the area of low pressure.  Each L is one run of the model.  There are dozens of EC ensemble members.

Each L represents one member.  The more they agree (tightly clustered) the higher the confidence in the forecast.

Clustered over northern Arkansas (but some spread).  1 PM Thursday.

.

Thursday evening.  Clustered over Illinois and Indiana.

.

Early Friday morning.  Clustered to our northeast.

.

Let’s look at the GEFS (GFS model ensembles)

Thursday afternoon.

Remember, each L represents one run of the GEFS ensembles.  The more L’s that are located in close proximity means the higher the confidence on the track.

.

Thursday night

.

For the entire week.  WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast.

.

There is a low-end risk of flash flooding Thursday and Thursday night, as well.  This is the WPC/NOAA map for excessive rainfall.

.

.

.

Let us look at some more rain total forecasts from the different models.

Hrrr model

 

NAM 3K model through Thursday 1 PM

 

 

The NAM model through Friday

.

The GFS (new version) model through Friday night.

.

.

.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

.

This next animation is the GFS American Model.