March 22, 2025: Thunderstorm outlook.

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Seven-Day Tornado Outlook

March 22nd through March 29th

Current risk: MONITOR. I will monitor Sunday afternoon and evening. The risk appears low, but perhaps not zero. There is some turning in the atmosphere.

Data is mixed on whether severe weather impacts our local area. The primary concern will be extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee (southward of there, as well).

Current confidence level: MEDIUM.

Comment:

Here is the current outlook for Sunday. The light green is where sub-severe storms are possible. The dark green is a low-level one risk. The yellow zone is a level two severe weather risk.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible tonight into Sunday night along an incoming cold front.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. I am watching a cold front on Sunday. The primary time of concern will be Sunday afternoon and evening.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures drop below 10 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 0 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.

A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Forecast discussion.

Dry today. Rain chances ramp up tonight into Sunday evening.
Avoid burning trash, fields, and brush. Conditions remain favorable for wildfires.
Rain chances ramp up tonight. A few storms could produce dime-size hail.
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue on Sunday. A few storms could be severe. A low-end risk of damaging wind, hail, and a tornado. The risk will mainly extend from extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
There remain questions about instability on Sunday. Lower instability would mean a lower severe weather risk.

A cold front will push into the region over the next 24 hours.

Gusty winds will accompany the front.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up tonight into Sunday evening. Some of the storms tonight could produce small hail.

There is a low-level risk of severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening over extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

Instability is relatively low, raising questions about the threat of severe weather.

With that said, I will need to keep a close eye on it. I can’t rule out severe weather. Instability levels are a bit higher than they were 24 hours ago.

Here is the Hrrr model.

3 PM Hrrr future-cast radar. What radar might look like Sunday afternoon.

The Hrrr shows a severe thunderstorm threat. I will be monitoring trends.

5 PM Hrrr model. Sunday evening. A line of intense storms moving across the region.

Currently, this is the rainfall outlook for the weekend system.

A weak system could bring some sprinkles or light showers to the region on Monday night and Tuesday (mainly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky).

I am watching another system on the last weekend of the month.

Here is that system for next weekend. Perhaps centered on Saturday night into Sunday night.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Here is the system that arrives tonight and tomorrow.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

Here is the future-cast radar.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.

We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.

We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.