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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Monday night into Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely. A few storms could be intense over western Tennessee later this afternoon. A line of storms may push into the area from Arkansas. It would be moving northeast into western Tennessee and perhaps south-central Kentucky. The overall severe weather risk appears to be low. I will keep an eye on it.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Locally heavy rain is possible Tuesday. Some nuisance flooding is possible.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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March 22, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 56° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Winds will be from the: Southeast to south 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 3. Low to medium.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 7:09 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms before midnight. Then, a chance of showers and after midnight. A dry slot should push into the region Tuesday night and that should cause the precipitation to wane.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~40% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early Becoming scattered.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 48° / South IL 46° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise:
Moonset: 9:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 23, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm will be possible. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 53° to 56° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 5. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 7:10 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 38° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° / West KY 36° to 40° / NW TN 36° to 40°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:23 AM
Moonset: 10:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 24, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 48° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 50° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Winds will be from the: Southwest to west southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Some clearing late at night. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:34 AM
Moonset: 11:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 25, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 7:12 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 11 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:42 AM
Moonset: 12:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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March 26, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of light rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 36°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:40 AM
Moonset: 1:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 27, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 7:13 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° / West KY 36° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:30 AM
Moonset: 2:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through March 26th: There is a low end risk of a severe thunderstorm across northwest Tennessee later this afternoon as a line of storms pushes across the region.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Locally heavy rain.
- A few remaining showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.
- Patchy light rain Wednesday night and Thursday (not much in the way of rain totals during this time-period).
- Chilly temperatures this week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
Widespread showers and thunderstorms pushed into the region overnight.
Many of you woke up to a vivid lightning show between 12 AM and 3 AM.
Thankfully, all of the severe thunderstorms and tornadoes have remained to our south. Numerous tornadoes were reported last night in Texas. Several producing considerable damage.
We will have to deal with showers and thunderstorms today. There may be some heavy downpours today. All in all, the forecast is on track.
I am watching northwest Tennessee for a level one severe weather threat this afternoon. I believe the bulk of the severe weather will stay to our south.
A line of storms will push into the region this afternoon from Arkansas. It is those storms that could be intense.
Here is what radar looked like at 6 AM. That is snow on the back-end of the storm system (Kansas/Nebraska).
You can see the severe storms in Louisiana and eastern Texas, as well.
Today will be a raw day. Gusty winds, at times. Cool temperatures. Widespread rain.
Rain totals from start to finish of 0.8″ to 1.6″ is the going forecast. There will be locally higher totals.
Some nuisance flooding is possible. Ditches, small streams, and poor drainage areas.
Severe thunderstorms are likely today to our south. If you have friends in that area, then let them know.
The orange and red zone are the highest risk. The light green zone (in our region) is sub-severe storms (just lightning).
We are going to have shower and thunderstorm chances tonight into Wednesday. The coverage, however, won’t be as great as it is this morning and afternoon.
Some light showers are possible Wednesday night (isolated) and again Thursday.
Rain totals Wednesday into Thursday will be light (less than 0.20″).
Dry conditions Thursday night into Friday night.
I am watching an upper level low Friday night and Saturday. Model guidance is not in agreement on the exact track of this upper level low.
If it were to pass right over our region, then some scattered light showers would be the end result. It would also mean cooler conditions than the going forecast.
I will need to monitor trends concerning Saturday’s forecast. I did go ahead and place a slight chance of showers in the forecast.
You can see it on these model images.
The EC model is furthest west with it. That is the upper level low in red/orange.
The GFS model is slight further east/northeast
Hopefully, it will push further east and avoid our region.
It might be cold enough for a mixture of rain and snow/graupel underneath the upper level low across portions of the Ohio Valley.
Again, hopefully to our east!
Temperatures will be chilly this week and this upcoming weekend.
Saturday night should be the coldest night. Our northern counties might even flirt with the freezing mark.
A warming trend early next week. Spring is here.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These four graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 21st through March 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers March 28th through April 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers April 1st through April 14th
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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