Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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March 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday night Forecast:  Mostly clear sky conditions.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%    NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44°     SE  MO  40° to 44°     South IL  40° to 44°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44°    West KY 42° to 44°     NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:  11:45 AM
Moonset:  2:09 PM
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

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March 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast:  Increasing clouds through the day.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South  IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%    NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70°    SE MO 64° to 66°    South IL  64° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  64° to 66°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  5.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 7:09 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.  A thunderstorm is possible.  Rain coverage will increase west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70%    MO Bootheel ~ 70%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50%     South IL ~ 50%    West KY ~ 50%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%    NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.  Increasing coverage west to east.
Timing of the rain: Mostly late at night (past midnight).
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54°     SE  MO  50° to 54°     South IL  50° to 54°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52°    West KY 50° to 54°     NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South wind increasing to 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise:  12:37 PM
Moonset:  3:03 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast:   Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90%    MO Bootheel ~ 100%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80%     South IL ~ 80%    West KY ~ 80%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80%    NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: At any point during the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°    SE MO 64° to 66°    South IL  64° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  64° to 66°    West KY 64° to 66°    NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index:  4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 7:10 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy.   A chance of showers and thunderstorms early.  Ending.  Clearing overnight from west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%    MO Bootheel ~ 30%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30%     South IL ~ 30%    West KY ~ 30%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%     NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending early in the night.
Timing of the rain:  Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     SE  MO  43° to 45°     South IL  44° to 48°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54°    West KY 50° to 54°     NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.   Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the radars.
Moonrise:  1:35 PM
Moonset:  3:54 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.  More clouds during the morning vs the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near the Indiana border) ~ 0%    NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70°    SE MO 65° to 70°    South IL  65° to 68°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  65° to 68°    West KY 66° to 70°    NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 14 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  5.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures may rise overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60%    MO Bootheel ~ 60%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50%     South IL ~ 50%    West KY ~ 50%    NW KY (near the Indiana border) ~ 50%    NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly late at night (past midnight).
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48°     SE  MO  44° to 46°     South IL  44° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46°    West KY 44° to 46°     NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:   Variable wind 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  2:39 PM
Moonset:  4:40 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80%    MO Bootheel ~ 80%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80%     South IL ~ 80%    West KY ~ 70%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70%     NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the rain: At any given point during the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68°    SE MO 63° to 66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  63° to 66°    West KY 63° to 66°    NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast becoming south 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Monitor updates concerning thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Have a plan B.
UV Index:  4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 7:12 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:   Mostly cloudy. A  chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60%    MO Bootheel ~ 60%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60%     South IL ~ 60%    West KY ~ 60%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%     NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight.  Perhaps earlier.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     SE  MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 42° to 45°     NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest and west at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Moonrise:  3:46 PM
Moonset:  5:20 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast:  Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65°    SE MO 58° to 62°    South IL  58° to 62°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62°    West KY 60° to 64°    NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph.  Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 7:13  PM
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Friday night Forecast:   Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     SE  MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 42° to 45°     NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  Southerly at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  4:57 PM
Moonset:  5:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65°    SE MO 58° to 62°    South IL  58° to 62°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62°    West KY 60° to 64°    NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph.  Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 7:14  PM
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Saturday night Forecast:   Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     SE  MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 42° to 45°     NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  Southerly at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  6:09 PM
Moonset:  6:30 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%    MO Bootheel ~ 20%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20%     South IL ~ 20%    West KY ~ 20%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%     NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the rain:  At any given point during the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65°    SE MO 58° to 62°    South IL  58° to 62°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62°    West KY 60° to 64°    NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph.  Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index:  7.  High.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 7:14  PM
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Sunday night Forecast:   Mostly cloudy.  A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%    MO Bootheel ~ 20%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20%     South IL ~ 20%    West KY ~ 20%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%     NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     SE  MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 42° to 45°     NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Moonrise:  6:09 PM
Moonset:  6:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

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These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through March 27th.  At this time, the severe weather risk appears to be low.  Perhaps not zero.  I am watching Tuesday and Thursday.  Monitor updates.

What is a severe storm?

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Sunday will be nice across the region.  We will start out cold but warm up nicely during the afternoon hours.  Overall, a nice day.

The atmosphere will remain dry through Monday evening.

A series of storms systems will approach the region beginning Monday night and continuing into Sunday.

There could be locally  heavy rain with some of these events.  In particular, I am watching the Thursday system.

Dew points will be on the rise Monday night and Tuesday.  Dew points will rise into the middle to upper 50s Tuesday afternoon.  Typically, for severe weather, I like to see dew points reach 58 degrees or higher.

There will be plenty of wind shear Tuesday.  Strong wind fields aloft.  The missing ingredient for severe thunderstorms will likely be higher dew points.

With that said, we need to monitor this setup.  The track of the low would favor severe thunderstorms.  I am just not sure dew points can recover.

Rain will end Tuesday night.  That leaves Wednesday dry.

Another system will develop in the southwest United States Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The EC model shows this system rapidly deepening into the 988 mb low over Missouri by Thursday.  This is quite concerning.

If the EC verifies then severe thunderstorms are likely to occur Thursday.  The timing will need to be worked out.

For now, I am closely monitoring model data and trends.  The GFS model is not as strong with this system.

Wind fields will be very strong Thursday.  Wind is one ingredient when it comes to severe weather.

Wind speed that changes with height is called speed shear.  Wind direction that changes with height is called directional shear.

There will be no shortage of both.

The EC model shows dew points rising into the 60s Thursday.  This would prime us for severe weather.

It is still early.  This system is several days away and much can change.  For now, I would encourage you to monitor updates.

Let’s look at some weather maps.

Again, keep in mind.  The EC model is stronger with the Thursday system vs the GFS model.

Here is the EC model.  See the low in Missouri?  The red L.  That is a deep low for any given month in the year.

If this model is right then widespread thunderstorms would impact the Ohio Valley all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.  Some of them would be severe.

Zoomed in

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The EC model brings dew points northward into our region.  Dew points in the 60s.  That would be fuel for locally heavy rain and storms.

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Let’s look at the upper level winds.  This is the 500 mb level.

See the red colors?  Those represent strong winds aloft.  Notice how it fans out over our region.  That is venting.  Divergence aloft.  That allows lift.

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The 850 mb map.  This shows you winds at the lower levels (not at the surface).  Strong 850 mb winds would help thunderstorms become severe.

This would be Thursday around 7 PM.

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Same wind fields a bit later in the night.  Notice they have increased about 60 knots.  Strong winds aloft.

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Here is the 500 mb vort map.  See the tight black lines?  Those area heights.

The bright colors represent vorticity.  Lift.  The EC is a powerful late season winter storm with severe storms ahead of it.

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The GFS model is not as strong.  It keeps the low further south.  This would be a rain event with little or no chance of severe thunderstorms.

Different models.  Two different solutions.

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The models I showed you above are called operation.  They are what we consider the “usual models” that we use to forecast the weather.

To dig deeper, we use ensembles.  Ensembles help smooth out the differences in the data/different models.  In theory, at least.

Now, let me show you some ensemble data.

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This is the EC model.

Remember, the operation model above shows the low tracking into western Missouri.  The ensembles, however, are further south and east.  That gives us a clue about what might happen.

The ensembles look more like the GFS model.  Further south.

This is Thursday afternoon.  Those L’s represent the area of low pressure.  Each L is one run of the model.  There are dozens of EC ensemble members.

Each L represents one member.  The more they agree (tightly clustered) the higher the confidence in the forecast.

Clustered over northeast Texas.

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Thursday evening.  Clustered over northern Arkansas.

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Thursday night.  A bit more spread out but still centered over the St Louis area.  The area of low pressure.

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Friday morning.  Centered over northeast Illinois and Indiana.  Somewhere in there.

That is where the EC model tracks the low.

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Now, let’s look at the GFS ensembles.  You can see they track the low right over our area.

Typically, severe weather occurs to the east and south/southeast of the area of low pressure.

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Let’s take a look at rain totals.

First, the WPC/NOAA official forecast.

Through Tuesday night

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For the entire week.  WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast.

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A blend of models through Tuesday night.

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The GFS (new version) through Tuesday night.

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The GFS (old version) through Tuesday night.

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The EC model through Tuesday night

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The NAM model through Tuesday night.

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The GFS (new version) model through Friday night.

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The GFS (old version) through Friday.

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The EC model through Friday.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  March 22nd through March 28th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

 

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers  March 29th through April 4th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

 

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers April 2nd through April 15th

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Precipitation outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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