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Seven-Day Tornado Outlook 
March 21st through March 28th
Current risk: UNLIKELY. I will monitor Sunday afternoon and evening. The risk appears minimal locally. There will be a risk south of my forecast area. I am not overly concerned about my forecast area. There is not enough instability for a more significant severe weather concern.
Current confidence level: MEDIUM.
Comment: A cold front will move through the region on Sunday. At this time, the risk of severe weather should stay to our south. Officially, the Storm Prediction Center has a sliver of our region outlined in a level one (low) risk.
I believe the risk is minimal. As always, monitor updates.
Here is the current outlook for Sunday. The light green is where sub-severe storms are possible. The dark green is a low-level one risk. The yellow zone is a level two severe weather risk.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible on Sunday and Sunday night along an incoming cold front.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? UNLIKELY. I am watching a cold front this coming Sunday. The risk of severe weather appears minimal. Monitor updates in case there are adjustments.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 0 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
9. There is an enhanced wildfire risk over the coming days. Avoid burning brush and fields.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Forecast discussion.
- Slow warming trend into Sunday.
- Avoid burning trash, fields, and brush. There is a high risk of wildfires.
- Another cold front arrives this coming weekend. At this time, Sunday will deliver the highest probability of showers and thunderstorms.
- The risk of severe weather on Sunday should remain to our south. Monitor updates.
- A low-end shower risk on Monday and Tuesday.
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Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to the first weekend of spring. The forecast is not overly warm, but it isn’t cold.
We are waking up to temperatures in the 50s. Not too bad for mid-March.
6 AM temperatures.
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I don’t have any significant weather concerns except fire weather.
We will continue to have an enhanced risk of wildfires into next week.
The NWS has issued red flag warnings for portions of the region.
The bottom line is that we need to avoid burning brush and fields until further notice.
There have already been numerous wildfires in the region.
There is a red flag warning for portions of the region. But, the NWS and local fire departments request that you avoid burning.
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A cold front will push into the region this weekend.
Gusty winds will accompany the front.
A few showers are possible as early as Saturday night and Sunday morning. Then, a band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front on Sunday afternoon and night.
Officially, there is a low-level risk of severe weather near the KY/TN border southward, but I don’t see much happening.
There is not enough instability for an outbreak of severe weather.
I will keep a close eye on it, but for now, the risk of severe weather is minimal locally.
Currently, this is the rainfall outlook for the weekend system.
A weak system could bring some sprinkles or light showers to the region on Monday and Tuesday (mainly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky). Even there, chances are fairly low.
I am watching another system the last weekend of the month. That one may have higher dewpoints to work with. Long way off. Monitor updates.
Here is that system for next weekend. Perhaps centered on Saturday night into Sunday night.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Here is the Sunday system.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS model.
And EC model. Sunday’s event.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Here is the future-cast radar.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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