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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
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- Rain showers are arriving.
- Rain totals will not impact flooding. No severe storms.
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Today: No
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Tomorrow: No.
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Confidence rating explained.
- High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
- Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
- Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.
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Today through Friday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? No.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
Saturday through Tuesday
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor Sunday night and Monday.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Some lightning will be possible this weekend. The focus will likely be on Sunday. Perhaps Monday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Unlikely. I will monitor the Sunday/Monday system.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here
March 20, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Rain first arrives over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois during the morning hours. Rain spreads east through the day. Rain totals mostly in the 0.10″ to 0.25″ range. Locally higher.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South to southwest wind 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 80% Southeast MO 80% IL 80% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80% Western KY 80% NW TN 80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: At times, numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Rain is possible.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers ending west to east during the evening hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: West at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% Southern IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: A band of rain ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 7:07 PM
Moonrise: 6:53 PM
The phase of the moon: Full
Moonset: 7:02 AM
March 21, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler. Breezy, at times.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest wind 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 32° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 36°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:08 PM
Moonrise: 8:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:38 AM
March 22, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest wind 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. A freeze possible in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:09 PM
Moonrise: 9:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:13 AM
Saturday: Increasing clouds. Warmer. A shower possible late Saturday night. Highs in the Middle 50’s to lower 60’s (coolest over south IL and warmest over SE MO). Lows in the middle 40’s. Winds less than 15 mph.
Sunday: Rain showers likely. Breezy. Rising temperatures Sunday night. Highs in the middle 50’s to lower 60’s. Lows in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s. Winds above 20 mph are possible.
Monday: Rain showers likely. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Rain may mix with snow Monday night with no accumulation. Turning colder with falling temperatures. Highs in the middle 50’s to upper 50’s. Lows in the lower to middle 30’s. Winds above 20 mph are possible.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Graphic-cast
These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.
Missouri
Illinois
Kentucky
Tennessee
Wind forecast
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today and tomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday through Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. I will keep an eye on Sunday and Monday. A few thunderstorms are possible.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com Click the personal notification settings tab. Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar. This will show you the precipitation type.
Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type
You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here..
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Rain showers today. Quick moving system. Totals mostly less than 0.25″. A few spots may have a bit higher.
- Dry Thursday into Saturday evening.
- Warming trend Thursday into the weekend!
Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
No major adjustments.
Does the forecast require action?
Yes. Avoid flooded roadways. Many rivers are flooding.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Forecast discussion.
Our well-advertised rain system is moving into the region this morning. Rain showers will spread eastward through the day.
See the local interactive city-view radars to track the precipitation. Link to the radars.
This is a quick-hitting system. That is good news because it means the rain will not aggravate the flooding situation. Thankfully.
No severe thunderstorms to deal with, either. It sounds like a win-win.
Clouds will keep temperatures in the 50’s today.
Rain totals will likely remain below 0.25″ across most of the area. There could be some patches of higher totals. Not much higher.
The rain will spread off to the east as we move into the evening and overnight hours. That will mean drying conditions locally.
The good news is that Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be dry. Calm weather. A warming trend, as well.
Fine fishing weather all three of those days.
Check out the temperature forecast for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Temperatures may be a bit higher than this on Friday and Saturday.
Sunday, unfortunately, will deliver increasing clouds and rain shower chances.
I continue to monitor the risk of thunderstorms.
Severe weather will be possible to our west with this system. For now, however, locally it appears we may miss the severe weather.
If the storm track changes then the severe weather forecast will change. Thus, monitor updates, as always. This is the time of year to always monitor updates.
Conditions can change.
Models are showing colder weather behind our Sunday and Monday system. The GFS was even showing snow in our area. I don’t think that will happen but it does tell us that colder weather will follow on the backside of the area of low pressure.
Freeze conditions are possible next week. Those with agricultural interests will want to monitor updates moving forward.
Friday highs (may need to bump these up a bit)
Saturday highs
Sunday hights will depend on cloud cover and rain.
Likely going to be widespread 50’s with a few 60’s possible.
Monday highs
Falling temperatures behind the cold front.
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Check out these low-temperature forecast numbers. We will need to monitor this.
Sometimes, the GFS data can be a tad too cold. Either way, a freeze is possible.
Click to enlarge
Tuesday morning lows
Wednesday morning lows
Another chance of rain arrives by Sunday and Monday. I may need to add thunderstorms to the forecast. For now, the severe weather threat appears minimal. As always, monitor updates.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM model guidance.
There may be a few remaining showers Wednesday evening.
Overall, this is a fast-moving system that should be in and out of here.
Time-stamp upper left.
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Our second system arrives late in the weekend into early next week with additional shower chances. I will monitor the risk of a thunderstorm, as well.
Timestamp upper left.
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Current conditions.
These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.
The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.
NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
The Ohio Valley video
Long-range This video.
The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)
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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.
** NOTE: See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these. They may not always agree **
The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures. The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.
The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.
Days six through ten temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days six through ten precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.
Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 4th through March 10th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 11th through the 18th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″
This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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March temperature and precipitation outlook
April temperature and precipitation outlook
May temperature and precipitation outlook
Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.
Temperature outlook
Precipitation outlook
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz, an on-air broadcast meteorologist at WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, PA. In addition, also joining us from WCAU-TV is on-air broadcast meteorologist Steven Sosna. Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Also joining us is the Chief scientist/SOO at the National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL. Kevin Laws, welcome to the show!
Last but not least, Joel Housman is joining us this week to celebrate National Weather Podcast Month. Hailing from Washington DC, he runs Ice Station Housman and is a weather enthusiast. Welcome to the show, Joel!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- 23 killed in EF4 Lee County, Alabama tornado on 3/3
- National Weather Podcast Month
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- National Weather round-up
- and more!
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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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