Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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We are waking up to chilly temperatures.  Brrrr check out Mount Vernon.  Eighteen degrees.
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Today will be chilly.  Dry conditions.

Temperatures will begin to warm tomorrow and Tuesday.

A few showers are possible on Monday night.

A stronger storm system will push into our region on Tuesday.

First, I wanted to let you know there will be gusty winds with or without thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.  A wind advisory may be necessary for some counties.

Wind gusts will range from 25 to 40 mph.

What is the probability of at least 35 mph wind gusts?

Double-click on this image to enlarge it.

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The primary band of showers and thunderstorms will reach southeast Missouri by the late morning or early afternoon hours.  Then, it will push eastward through the afternoon and evening hours.

You can see that on the NAM 3K model.  This is what radar may look like between 11 am and 1 pm.  This band of thunderstorms will be moving east.  It will cross the entire region.

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Locally heavy rain and lightning are likely with this band.  Gusty winds, as well.

There will be a threat of a few severe thunderstorm warnings with this system.  A low-level tornado risk.  The higher risk will remain to our south.

Several ingredients are lacking for a more significant severe weather event.

As mentioned above, dew points struggle to reach higher numbers.  The dew point is a measure of moisture.  Low dew points would inhibit the severe weather threat.

Instability (CAPE) appears limited, as well.

Models show some CAPE.  It appears CAPE numbers of 100 to 300 will be possible.  That isn’t high, but with very strong wind shear it may be just enough to produce some damaging wind gusts.

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The higher severe weather probabilities will remain to our south.

The Storm Prediction Center/NOAA continues to shift its outlook.  That is not unusual.  They usually move it around as the event draws closer.

Here is the current severe weather outlook for Tuesday.

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Again, our region is in a level one and two risk.  The light green zone is where sub-severe storms are possible.  It is possible the dark green zone will shift a bit farther east, as well.  Monitor updates, as always.

A severe thunderstorm produces quarter-size hail, 58 mph wind gusts, and/or a tornado.  That is the definition of a severe thunderstorm.

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There are several ingredients you need for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

1.  Lift (cold front/warm front).
2.  Instability (unstable air mass)
3.  Wind shear.  An increase in wind speed with height.  A turning of wind direction with height.
4.  Moisture.  Higher dew points.

For severe weather, I usually watch for 58 or above in the dew point department.

For a more significant severe weather outbreak, I usually look for a wider warm sector.  The dew points with this system will be minimal, mainly in the 50s.  I doubt we reach 60 degrees in the dew point department.

That blue color represents higher dew points.  Notice that they stay to our south in the current data.

NBM model.  Dew point forecast for Tuesday afternoon.

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Rainfall totals will likely range from 0.50″ to 1.00″.  Locally higher totals.

Most of this will fall on Tuesday.  Thankfully, these numbers have come down a bit.

Double-click this image to enlarge it.

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Temperatures will rise ahead of the cold front on Tuesday.  Then, temperatures will fall behind the cold front.

You can see that in this animation.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

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A few showers are possible late in the week.  Nothing extreme or severe.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.