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For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Tuesday Night – Breezy and turning colder. A chance for a few evening showers and thunderstorms over our far eastern counties. A few snow showers possible. No accumulation.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26-34 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 15-30 mph before midnight. Winds will subside after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Snow showers possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Snow showers possible as precipitation ends.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Colder.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 44-48 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? None.
What impact is expected? None.
Wednesday Night – Increasingly cloudy. Perhaps a shower late at night. Thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% before midnight and 50% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered after midnight
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways late at night will be possible. Maybe scattered reports of lightning.
Thursday – Cloudy. A chance for showers. Rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 45-50 degrees.
Winds: South winds becoming northeast at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous showers likely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely. We could see the rain end as light snow or flurries.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways will be possible. Lightning possible.
Thursday Night – An evening shower possible. Very small chance for a flurry.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds becoming northwest at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible early. Rain should be ending.
Friday – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 45-50 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
The weekend should be dry and cool. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows in the 30s.
Let’s keep a close eye on next weeks weather. It may become active. Monitor updates.
The school bus forecast will vary greatly on Tuesday. Best chances for rain in the morning will be over southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois. Best chances in the afternoon will be parts of southern Illinois into Kentucky. Temperatures will vary greatly on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures may drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s behind the cold front. And, expect 50s ahead of the front. Temperatures will fall behind the front from west to east throughout the day. Keep that in mind.
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Welcome to meteorological spring
2. Cool weather
3. Showers possible on Thursday
Meteorologists, being the funny bunch that we are, measure seasons a little bit differently than everyone else. We consider spring to be March, April, and May. We consider summer to be June, July, and August. So, today is the first day of meteorological spring. Welcome to spring 🙂
Our chances for measurable snow are dwindling fast. The best hope for snow lovers was the first two weeks of March. And, I am not seeing any true snow makers in the long range. Once we get past the middle of March our chances for snow rapidly decrease. Winter is all but over. Not saying we can’t still have a surprise event, but the odds are against it. I do remember a few snow systems around the beginning of April. Those are the exceptions. Not the rule.
March started off with a bang. Numerous showers and thunderstorms spread across the region on Tuesday morning. Several reports of pea to nickel size hail were received. Most of the hail fell over southern Illinois. Although, a few reports in western Kentucky, as well.
The severe threat was minimal. And, we avoided any warnings. Quarter size hail is the warning threshold.
Calm weather will be on tap for Tuesday night and Wednesday. We could have a stray light shower or snow flurry early Tuesday evening (before midnight).
Another weather maker arrives on Thursday. This will deliver a few showers to the region. Light. Precipitation totals will range from none to perhaps 0.25″.
The weekend should be dry and cool. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows in the 30s.
I am watching another system for March 8th-10th. Perhaps centered on the night of the 8th and the 9th. Showers and thunderstorms will be the general rule with that system.
Active pattern the next two weeks. Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The rest of the week?
Another fast moving system will slip into the region on Thursday. Some rain showers will be possible. Right now it appears that it will be too warm for snowflakes. But, I will continue to monitor trends. Data has been mixed on this issue. Looks a bit too warm for snow.
Our chances for snow are slipping away. I do not see snow chances next week. A large and stormy system is possible around the 8th-10th. Thunderstorms? Perhaps.
Preparing for severe weather this spring!
This is a reminder that spring typically brings several rounds of severe weather to our region.
I suggest having multiple avenues for receiving severe weather information. Here are some suggestions
- NOAA Weather Radio. The Midland 300 is my favorite. You can program what products you would like to be alerted for. If you don’t want flash flood warnings then you can filter those out. If you only want tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings then you can program it for just that. Great weather radio. Amazon has them at decent prices. Yes, you will pay a little bit more for that radio, but you won’t be bothered with every single alarm. And, those alarms can become annoying after awhile. Especially true if you don’t need all of the warning products.
- WeatherTalk texting service. Through the texting I will let you know that severe weather is in the forecast. The texts I send out are supplemental texts (not warning texts). Confirmed damage text messages, a tornado is on the ground message, baseball size hail has been reported in Scott County, Missouri texts, an intense storm is entering your county. Those are some examples. Remember, the proceeds from WeatherTalk pay for this blog, the interactive city view radars, all of the graphics you see on Facebook and Twitter, the AWARE email (which is $100 a month to produce), the text messages, and my time.
- A severe weather warning AP. There are many to choose from. I have some suggestions here
- Television and a battery powered radio.
- Outdoor sirens should be the last on your list. Outdoor sirens are meant for people outside. If you can hear them then great. But, don’t use them as your primary source for warning.
As always, I encourage you to check forecasts frequently when severe weather is in the forecast. Forecasts evolve and change. Severe weather is similar to winter storms in the difficulty level of forecasting.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Thursday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Friday – The thunderstorm thread level will be zero
No winter weather of any significance.
Tuesday Night – a flurry can’t be ruled out.
Wednesday – No snow or anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday/Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Updated winds and temperatures.
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No concerns.
No.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Light rain is possible on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 0.00″-0.25″ are possible. Light event. Watching March 8th-10th for a heavier rain event.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
